Ultimate Hloders only thread - do you have a dollar price in mind?

[marcus_of_augustus]

This is a Holders only refuge where good, positive ideas, speculations and long term strategies can be exchanged freely.


NB: Zero tolerance for intentional disruption, excessive FUD, gratuitous bearishness, thread trashing or other scatological troll tactics.

[Fakhoury]

Edit : Thank you marcus_of_augustus for this thread and for your bullishness in general,, expect a PM from me so soon buddy.

Well, it's my favorite time to post, it's 4:57 A.M. here, took my sleep aid pills and enjoying the bullish atmosphere.

Sorry for being, let's get in-topic.

There is a strategy in my mind that I would like to share, a lot of people asks, when shall I buy and when isn't $xxx for 1 bitcoin is too much to buy now.

I'm totally aganist this people for several reasons, but the main reason here is, buying 1 bitcoin or 10 bitcoin or even 0.1 of a bitcoin, will mwke diffirence with you on the long haul, beileve me, every satoshi counts.

There is never a perfect price to buy a bitcoin, it's always a MUST BUY.

If after 10 years from now, we will settle at $5K per price, so most probably you will afford 1 bitcoin every month, two or even three, so accumlate as much as you can and enjoy the future.

If we will settle at $50K, it will be difficult to afford 1 bitcoin, BUT what you've accumlated will me you a rich bitch.

So never say never, keep accumlating and enjoy a once in a lifetime chance to be what you wanted to be, this chance is yours, either you take it or leave for someone else.

For me, I'm holding till 2025-2030, and I know so well that I will retire in my mid-30s and enjoy life with my family.

[r0ach]

Already posted mine in another thread:

R0ach what would you predict for bitcoin price just before the halving, 1 month after and 6 months after?

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go. 

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

[pooya87]

i am also thinking the same way, i think bitcoin is always at a should buy only state and all these prices are considered low, of course i would prefer to buy bitcoin at $200, $100, or $1 but those days are long gone and i have bought what i could afford back then.

so i will continue to buy and hold for at least 5 years or until bitcoin reaches the mass adoption stage. and the price i am expecting from that stage is around 3K-4K USD per bitcoin.

[r0ach]

so i will continue to buy and hold for at least 5 years or until bitcoin reaches the mass adoption stage. and the price i am expecting from that stage is around 3K-4K USD per bitcoin.

You wot m8?  Bitcoin could be pumped to numbers like 3k even this year, long before any sign of "mass adoption".  Mass adoption gets you numbers like $100k+ or million dollar Bitcoins, unless your definition of mass adoption is vastly different than mine.  You sound like you're from India or somewhere.  You know in America people own $10 million dollar houses and stuff right?  How do you expect the US real estate market to function and transact in Bitcoin to sell $10 million houses if the price of BTC is only 3k each?

[marcus_of_augustus]

In case there was any doubt, I voted "Never - btc ftw"


When you are ready, you wont have to ...

[Dilla]

I will divest gradually to usd if the bitcoin price bubbles, only to increase my btc holdings in the future. Probably pocket a small profit in usd to put a down payment on a house, then put the rest back in btc for the next run up(s) in the coming years. Hopefully it will get to the point I don't have to and can buy real estate, land, etc.. Without having to switch. I realize that's possible now in some places, but I'd like to see it everywhere.

[Soros Shorts]

When the price exceeds $2K I will move 10% of my coins into physical gold. The reason for this is that I don't believe in keeping too much wealth in one asset class.

After that, the next price level at which I'd sell another 10% (of what's left) would be in the $10K range. With the strategy no matter how high BTC gets I will always own some. At the same time I won't die with a bunch of BTC that would only be spent by my heirs.

[Amph]

no less than 10k, my bitcoin are not worth less than that ever, i don't care what the market value them now, and even after 10k i would not sell them but i would hold a good portion, probably in the range of 10-30% plus using the other

because we must assume that the usage will increase and more merchants will accept it, if bitcoin will really reach 10k and more

there is no way bitcoin will remain at current level of acceptance with a value greater than 10k

[marcus_of_augustus]

Just about into uncharted territory on this wave.

[keystroke]

Good, this is the type of thread we need. I've been following your posts for a long time -- we registered our accounts within a day of each other back in 2011.

The 'Planning Bitcoin Withdrawals - Advanced' spreadsheet by Chainsaw is good for planning divestments over time as needed.

[marcus_of_augustus]

When the price exceeds $2K I will move 10% of my coins into physical gold. The reason for this is that I don't believe in keeping too much wealth in one asset class.

After that, the next price level at which I'd sell another 10% (of what's left) would be in the $10K range. With the strategy no matter how high BTC gets I will always own some. At the same time I won't die with a bunch of BTC that would only be spent by my heirs.

I find this interesting on two accounts:

i) I can appreciate the idea of diversifying into other assets if you get top heavy in one or another but gold and bitcoin seem so similar as to be not a hugely different diversification and with added storage/transaction costs, I still like gold but kind of lump it into same risk/attribute profile as btc ... mostly.

ii) dying with a bunch of coins instead of leaving them to unworthy heirs to squander is something that has crossed my mind ... one solution is to automate a transaction that has some portion of them to be sent to a burn address after your passing ... spreading wealth to all bitcoin users.

[r0ach]

lol, the last thing I want is a dead man's switch to accidentally burn all my bitcoins.

[ynef]

For me, I'm holding till 2025-2030, and I know so well that I will retire in my mid-30s and enjoy life with my family.

That's a beautiful dream, but at the rate technology is evolving and the world around us changing, Bitcoin could very well be a forgotten memory by then. I'm not saying so it will be, but seriously, the world will be a different place. Just something to think about...

[r0ach]

For me, I'm holding till 2025-2030, and I know so well that I will retire in my mid-30s and enjoy life with my family.

That's a beautiful dream, but at the rate technology is evolving and the world around us changing, Bitcoin could very well be a forgotten memory by then. I'm not saying so it will be, but seriously, the world will be a different place. Just something to think about...

There's nothing to think about.  You can't have a decentralized currency without an open entropy system.  You can't switch to a recursive, PoS system because then it's a permissioned ledger (amongst PoS's other problems).  There won't be a replacement.  Sure, WW3 or something might happen and everyone dies, but then you have bigger problems.

[keystroke]

Rather than destroying your bitcoins after death, I would recommend using multi-sig and giving highly trusted friends (not ideologically unaligned relatives, who may feel entitled to your bitcoins) the ability to come together and donate your remaining bitcoins to nonprofits of your choosing. These nonprofits could then fund various goals that you would support, whatever those may be.

[hector3115]

In the near future, cashing in your bitcoin for US dollars or other worse fiat is like printing all of your emails out, no need.

[afbitcoins]

Nobody can really give a good estimate on that because there's way too many variables.  For instance, the upswing always tends to overshoot, so even if you weren't optimistic and believed the price could only hold stable at $800, it would probably still reach 900-1000 for a while.  But once it broke $1000, the media would unload about 5 million Bitcoin stories that would FOMO it higher.  The second you break both old ATH and gold price, here comes more media stories and it happens all over again, then up to like $1400-1600 you go. 

There will obviously be some people shorting at $800, and there will obviously be people trying to short squeeze them there.  Anyone shorting there is pretty much an idiot since there's plenty of entities with 100 mil in the bank in Bitcoin that may or may not attempt to strongarm you at that point, so you might as well be throwing darts at a dartboard.  Never try to short a breakout trend.  God, shorters are idiots.

So yea, I figure there will likely be an attempted short squeeze to $1000 or more, and if BTC manages to break ATH, then all bets are off and you can get into just insane numbers.  For the most bearish scenarios, I think it will still go over 800.  It's just too hard to call when all you have to do is break old ATH for literally one nanosecond, either through the normal market or a short squeeze to put you into an entirely new ballgame.

The real question to ask yourself is, at what levels do you think the market would be overextended and you would want to temporarily dump at?  The answer to that question is, there would be no point to do so at 800. At 1000, the media is pumping it for you and you're in easy striking distance of ATH and insane FOMO, so still no point in selling anything.  If you hit 1200, well, at that point the press coverage is going to be so big it will be forcing central bankers to consider adding it to bank reserves again like so:  http://www.coindesk.com/barbados-central-bank/

All I can say is, keep holding unless you see a triple top that's far above $1200 - shout out to In-Q-Tel, Larry Summers, and the Chicoms who will be helping pump.

This is sort of along my thoughts too. I don't have a dollar price in mind but hopefully I'll recognise signs of a top when we reach it. And I expect it to rise significantly above the current all time high.

[chensong]

I don't know how long I hold it, but at least one year.
All things change over time, nothing is immutable, And now bitcoin look much more promising, I think the bitcoin price may rise to at least $1000, if the bitcoin condition is favorable I will continue to hold on.

[marcus_of_augustus]

It doesn't look to me like china is leading this rise but rather following along strongly. Bitfinex seems to ratchet up the price $5-10 on strong impulses that hold on to new levels extremely strongly without running higher ... and chinese exchanges follow along with similar moves, but with more fluctuations.

This must be a terrible market to be short in, it isn't allowing for any escapes, sharp runs higher followed by longish periods at new highs ... I'd be crapping myself if I was short from anywhere under 420 or even 430 now ... like being on the rack that is slowly getting tightened.