BTC Halving Failure with Market Price below $900 US$

[kiklo]

Reward-Drop ETA date: 11 Jul 2016 18:24:27

The Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks, the coin reward will decrease from 25 to 12.5 coins.

Approximate Price of BTC => ~$450

We know that the BTC miners all have bills from ASICS & Electricity & Personal & Housing.
Their BTC income will be cut in Halve, which means their Fiat income from selling BTC will also be Halved.

So for them to break even with their current profit margin, BTC Price of $450 has to literally Double to $900 within days of the halving.

Options:

A.  Miracle occurs and price exceeds $900 , Miners Happy.  

B.  No Price increase and China now controls 80% of the BTC mining Pools.  

C.  BTC Price Collapses to between $250 & $300  

D.  r0ach sells everything he owns and BTC reaches $500, because he already said he will pump it. But crashes a week later.  

E.  Smooth decides he bored with BTC and lets everyone know they should have just purchased Monero.

F.  TPTB released a 8000 Paged Post explaining what really happened, which becomes a best seller.

G.  Kiklo is busy in the ZEIT forum, when he receives the ShamWow Spokesman of the Year Award.  

H.  Spoetnik releases a New Super Virus , that turns all Humans into Canadians , which for some reason, Now everyone Agrees with Spoetnik and sets fire to all of the world's currency and ASICS, New world currency is Now Officially Fish.  


Agree or Disagree or Feel Free to Add any Options.  


 


Extra Options:
I.  (author=Za1n) They keep mining and learn to live with less profit.

[cannabanana]

Super Nintendo

[NSA360]

Spectrum 48k

[smooth]

So for them to break even with their current profit margin, BTC Price of $450 has to literally Double to $900 within days of the halving.

That assumes they are breaking even before, which is very likely false.

[TPTB_need_war]

So for them to break even with their current profit margin, BTC Price of $450 has to literally Double to $900 within days of the halving.

That assumes they are breaking even before, which is very likely false.

The Economics 101 of the price meeting demand at marginal supply shouldn't mean anything but gibberish to most here in Altcoin Discussion land.

The impact of marginal miners exiting and more coins for the remaining miners should not even be entertained as a possibility because it violates the K.I.S.S. soundbite principle.

[Za1n]

Or the most obvious thing happens which you even said in the OP,

So for them to break even with their current profit margin, BTC Price of $450 has to literally Double to $900 within days of the halving.

they learn to live with a lower profit margin.

Profit is profit, sure they might like to see $900 BTC to keep the same margin, but even if their profit after all expenses stays positive why would they quit mining. They might drop from making $200 to $100 a day profit, but again profit is profit.

So I would add option I., which should be A. They keep mining and learn to live with less profit.

[64dimensions]

I think that there is another "economic" utility of BTC that maybe overlooked in the West. That is that BTC and other coins (LTC I'm looking at you.) because of capital controls, are vehicles to move money out of China. You can read accounts where Chinese have given smugglers a 20% cut to move money out of China.

[iv4n]

"H.  Spoetnik releases a New Super Virus , that turns all Humans into Canadians , which for some reason, Now everyone Agrees with Spoetnik and sets fire to all of the world's currency and ASICS, New world currency is Now Officially Fish.  Shocked  "

I believe this is the most likely outcome. We can forget everything else and focus on this. Maybe its stupid, but when all humans turns into Canadians, what will happen with Canadians? 
Can I reserve some FISH coins now while its not too late?

[bones261]

I say option B is most likely. I'm sure the large Chinese pools and farms have figured out ways to already reduce their electricity costs and make more efficient ASICS. I also think Bitfury has probably already developed even better technology, and will be unleashing it into their own farm just in time for the halving. Small time miners. Forget about it.

[K210]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

[bones261]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

They can't even get consensus on increasing the block size. I doubt a switch from POW to POS will ever happen with BTC.

[freshman777]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

Switching to POS is giving power back to users. How is Blockstream supposed to push through with their agenda when they suddenly have to deal with hundreds of decentralized users staking blocks instead of a handful CEOs of the mining cartels?

[TPTB_need_war]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

Switching to POS is giving power back to users. How is Blockstream supposed to push through with their agenda when they suddenly have to deal with hundreds of decentralized users staking blocks instead of a handful CEOs of the mining cartels?

One day you will read and understand the points that monsterer, smooth, r0ach, ArticMine, myself and others have explained as to why PoS(shit) is just shit and worse than PoW. I don't have time to resummarize. Go find the relevant threads and learn please.

[Amph]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

sure let's waste millions of asic machine for nothing, also pos mean that those that are holding 100K coins and exchange, would simply dump from stake, which is utterly stupid in the case of bitcoin that hash the highest value

[BitcoinNational]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

simple ... i'm not sure you know what that word means ...

... China owns LTC, likely will own BTC, if you have the cheapest cost of production, that is why ...  $300 BTC by october ... only Washington St. and maybe Iceland can compete by the K/w ...

.. but i'm buying all the Fish I can lay hands on!  Then I'm moving to the Great White cuz, hockey and ice fishing you know ...

[cryptoheadd]

[bones261]

simple solution switch to proof of stake, pow is going to fail sooner or later anyways

sure let's waste millions of asic machine for nothing,

Unfortunately, once the halving hits, unless the market makes another remarkable upsurge, those asics that are not 15nm or better are going to be relegated to leasing hash and mining new shitcoins. Or ending up in the hands of noobs after an ebay sell. They can make good doorstops and space heaters too.

[BitcoinNational]

sure let's waste millions of asic machine for nothing

it has amazed me how the sha256 miners community ... in general has used a scored Earth policy with alt sha256 coins ... Zeta only survived +$100K because it was a ninja mine ... after that Terra?  It is an absolute void ... you made the bed ... rust in pieces you will ... you guys didn't even manage to facilitate more than 2 reputable alt sha256 pools ops.  $12 Billion in capital to work with!!!  /dumb

Scrypty at least has a variety of coins, and don't doubt China had a hand in making that happen


[TPTB_need_war /quote]

BTC
hear no consolidation
see no consolidation
speak "Oh Bitcoin is going to $25K/coin on the halving!!!"

fucjkin Train wrecjk
that lends justification to $Eth PnD operation

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Miners will keep on mining, regardless of what happens with the price.   Or their equipment gets sold to people who can mine more cheaply.   Either way,  the market could give a shit about miners.

[BitcoinHodler]

this is mostly BS, especially the part about the necessity of doubling the price to $900 that is only true if miners are losing money at $450 which is not true they are profiting a lot at the current price and there is no need to go to double so they can profit.

and the fall will only happen if the demand stops being this high which will never happen and with the supply being reduced and the demand increasing there is only one way to go and that is up.