Some predict rise to 500, others to 10,000, what is the truth?

[BitNerd]

That is regarding rise before/during/after the halving. What arguments are there for one or the other predictions, what should I believe?

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[LMGTFY]

That is regarding rise before/during/after the halving. What arguments are there for one or the other predictions, what should I believe?

You shouldn't believe any predictions.

You should read any analysis that accompanies a prediction, and assess whether or not you agree with it. If there's no analysis - ignore the prediction. If you don't understand the analysis - ignore the prediction (this could easily be because the person making the prediction doesn't understand what they're doing).

Some people are better at analysis than others, but even then - they get it wrong sometimes. Do your own analysis as well. Just because someone has had good results in the past doesn't mean that they will in future - they could just have been lucky!

[r0ach]

I made a post earlier to Anonymint as to why it's extremly stupid to not hold as many Bitcoin as you can get right now:

Let's break out the list:

1)  Because it's literally a free money asymmetric trade, which is why the price is going up.  The odds of losing are far lower than gaining.

2)  There are only two monetary instruments on earth immune to cascading deflationary collapse of fractional reserve fiat from debts and loans going bad:  Bitcoin and Metals.

3)  If I buy gold, it has less utility than Bitcoin.  Where can I spend gold?  Nowhere.  All I can do with gold is mail it back to the gold dealer for 90% or less of what I paid for it.  Bitcoin utility is currently higher than gold for most people, yet the market cap is zilch.  Expect a correction to occur with Bitcoin market cap increasing because this is a truely distorted market if the tiny market cap asset has more acceptance and utility than the huge market cap one.

4)  Market cap is determined by market makers and market makers plan to raise the price.  People don't build 100 million dollar mining facilities and then let the price be determined by sheer luck or fate.

5)  Bitcoin moves in bubbles and there was an extremely long bear market accumulation period with observable hard floors.  Whenever a long accumulation period occurs on an actual liquid asset, the price explodes afterwards.  If you think Bitcoin is not going to see big moves, you are mistaken.

6)  The inflation rate is going from 8% to 4%, so it's actually a real currency now instead of some hyperinflating bullshit.

7)  Because fucking boats

[bajing]

The truth is still a prediction no one know or can predict bitcoin price, just follow the market to take a profit in every opportunity.

[hector3115]

The answer to your question is $4000/btc.

[Hizzmoot]

That is true that it is really good if you hold some BTC now instead of for example gold.
Whatelse, if you can predict shrt-term changes, you can earn some money on it easly.

The answer to your question is $4000/btc.

Where did you get it from ?  

[~BitSy~]

None could be believed since everyone is purely speculating about it and chances of them knowing what future has for us is zero. Recent rise is a good indication of 500 mark prior to halving and in the actual halving we could say it wouldn't be much difference due to the whole adjustments but after the halving is what we could say the main difference and I think it would be in 800 mark by that time.

[Amph]

you should believe the fact that the probability of an increase is much higher than a decrease right now, from that take your right speculation

[Razick]

Easy, the truth is no one knows. I do think it will go up, but no one knows how much.

[HarryKPeters]

Easy, the truth is no one knows. I do think it will go up, but no one knows how much.

This is the truth. It's all speculation. If it was a 100% certainty people would invest all their live savings and the market cap would be doubled to say the least.

[hector3115]

That is true that it is really good if you hold some BTC now instead of for example gold.
Whatelse, if you can predict shrt-term changes, you can earn some money on it easly.

The answer to your question is $4000/btc.

Where did you get it from ?  

Im from the future, 2017.

[randy8777]

i always have a realistic look at how the market is performing and how it even may perform the rest of this year. i don't need any one for this. just to answer your question about who to believe; don't believe anything what people say on this forum as they only say things in their own benefit. just do your own research and keep it realistic. don't be one of these 'bitcoin will reach $2000 this year' jokers.

[kwukduck]

The CEO of Bitcoin told me it would be $1000/btc byt i'm sure he's lying as the system is fundamentally bound to collapse with the halving.

[hasiramasenju]

very rarely to see any person who can predict the correct prices of bitcoin although if suppose there i think they will not publish at open forums so regarding your questions i'm pretty sure that nobody can answering the correct answers

[Red-Apple]

the "truth" is that we can not see or predict the future. what we can do is speculate, and there is always a lot of trolls too, who will spam nonsense.

so here it goes, if you are looking for a short term rise in a couple of weeks then the rise is $500 but it is not going to stop there because the potential of bitcoin is so much more than this. so it will continue to rise at least to $1100 since it has already been proven that this price is reachable for bitcoin, and since this time there is literary a lot more investors and big services like steam for instance using bitcoin the price will rise so much more than the last ATH.

[znickelbackz]

nothing is true, everything is permitted.
bitcoin price may rise to $100,000, or it may disappear, they all be predicted somewhere.

[PseudoCode]

The CEO of Bitcoin told me it would be $1000/btc byt i'm sure he's lying as the system is fundamentally bound to collapse with the halving.

Fact: A few months back, The Chief Prognosticator of KwuckDuck Enterprises told *me that it  was guaranteed to fall to $180 within a couple of weeks, and then on downwards to its *real value of $10-$50.  I still have bids @180 waiting (not really).

Premise: If anybody *really knew in advance what was going to happen, you can bet they *wouldn't be on here telling the world+dog about it, they would be *using their certain knowledge to their advantage, which they couldnt do if they were shouting it to everyone.

Corollary:  Anyone who *is claiming to have certain or high-probability advance knowledge of what is going to happen is very likely lying for their own nefarious reasons (trying to stooge idiots into moving the way they want to them to go) or just talking baseless crap to gratify their ego, or ease their butt-hurtness.

Conclusion:  Whenever someone puts large amounts of effort into trying to convince everyone they know for sure whats going to happen  (Kwack Kwack), then your best bet (assuming you are dumb enough to take the advice of random internet gurus in the first place), is to do the *opposite of what they advise. 

Better still, use your own noggin, and dont include  blather you read in a forum called "Speculation" as any even vaguely useful indication of future market movements.

 

[mu77aL]

I think its going up for another high rising phase. Maybe it willr each something about 800$ at this Sumemr.
That would be really realistic in case of the actuall difficulty rising.

be aware  BTC will explode 

[BTCLovingDude]

there is always going to be difference of opinions here in the speculation section and you can't say which on is 100% right and which one is 100% wrong.

you have to take it all in and decide for yourself. the $500 is the rise that will happen soon and it will continue going up in May and next months until it reaches a maximum.

but the $10,000 is a different story, i don't think it will be reached that easily. it will require this first rise then popularity then another rise then another adoption and so on which will take much longer to reach.

[Dr.Osh]

all are only predictions. the truth can be seen as the year that the intent arrived. it's only the price that is likely to happen when the price of bitcoin up within a few weeks or years