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Poll
Question: What state are we in right now?
Optimism
Excitement
Thrill
Euphoria
Anxiety
Denial
Fear
Desperation
Panic
Capitulation
Despondency
Depression
Hope
Relief
I'll vote later, just show me the results

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Author Topic: [Poll] Where are we in the Investor's Emotion Cycle?  (Read 3137 times)
Spekulatius
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February 21, 2013, 01:54:53 PM
 #1

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Zangelbert Bingledack
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February 21, 2013, 02:09:02 PM
 #2

You say "we," but to be more accurate it depends on when each person bought in and how much they invested. If at $32, relief. If half their net worth at $2, euphoria. If at $25, optimism.

I think many people will answer where their own emotion cycle is at, but the more relevant question for investors is where the general public is at in the cycle. Yet the catch is, the general public has not really been exposed to Bitcoin yet. This is wild west territory as far as pricing, and anything is possible, though not as wild as it used to be, and it does seem the price has settled into a nice exponential growth curve for now.
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February 21, 2013, 03:59:39 PM
 #3

Please explain why you are using all this oldschool stockmarket memes in bitcoin forum?
Is bitcoin the wallstreet or something - i really do not think so!



don't let me make you question your assumptions
Spekulatius
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February 21, 2013, 04:16:09 PM
 #4

You say "we," but to be more accurate it depends on when each person bought in and how much they invested. If at $32, relief. If half their net worth at $2, euphoria. If at $25, optimism.

I think many people will answer where their own emotion cycle is at, but the more relevant question for investors is where the general public is at in the cycle. Yet the catch is, the general public has not really been exposed to Bitcoin yet. This is wild west territory as far as pricing, and anything is possible, though not as wild as it used to be, and it does seem the price has settled into a nice exponential growth curve for now.

Thx for the reminder, I fixed the title to be more accurate!
When everyone gives their personal state of emotion, the average of all of them will be the general state this forum is in.
Spekulatius
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February 21, 2013, 04:17:42 PM
 #5

Please explain why you are using all this oldschool stockmarket memes in bitcoin forum?
Is bitcoin the wallstreet or something - i really do not think so!




No its not the Wall Street, but investor emotions, chart patterns and other trading related topics apply to the Bitcoin market as well as to Wall Street.
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February 21, 2013, 04:45:42 PM
 #6

Why don't we have a pool on when to sell and buy, then we all can agree on entry- and exit points, and daytrade the spread?
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February 21, 2013, 04:50:49 PM
 #7

Euphoria.

We are going to drive this sucker into the ground.
molecular
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February 21, 2013, 04:54:48 PM
 #8

pool results seem to indicate we are still some ways away from bubble mode. this is consistent with my opinion.

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Luno
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February 21, 2013, 05:03:22 PM
 #9

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.
molecular
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February 21, 2013, 05:42:13 PM
 #10

We are waiting for the $32' ers to sell at a loss before we move up. This is also completely consistent with my opinion on my hunch.

shouldn't take long:

Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 31.0;
-[ RECORD 1 ]----------------
cnt | 1544
btc | 13714.94400000
usd | 429606.3764527000000000

only 13K BTC were ever traded above $31.

EDIT for those interested:

Code:
mtgox=# select count(*) as cnt, sum(volume) as btc, sum(volume*price) as usd from trades where price >= 29.80;
-[ RECORD 1 ]-----------------
cnt | 5090
btc | 55666.28300000
usd | 1702948.0715991000000000

56K BTC have changed hands for a price above $29.80 (on mtGox).

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February 21, 2013, 05:48:41 PM
 #11

Euphoria.

We are going to drive this sucker into the ground.
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February 21, 2013, 05:59:07 PM
 #12

we pasted Euphoria.. and the price did somthing odd, it kept going UP!

now we have mass Anxiety everyone is convinced they know what will happen next UP or DOWN, and all of them pretend that their prediction alleviates their Anxiety.



the few people still in Euphoria a the ones hitting the buy button  Wink

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February 21, 2013, 06:03:29 PM
 #13

Please explain why you are using all this oldschool stockmarket memes in bitcoin forum?
Is bitcoin the wallstreet or something - i really do not think so!



It is, just a stock of one small tech startup with unique, disruptive technology, finance-related, with tiny market cap of just 250 mil USD. You are buying coins and at the same time, shares in that startup.

i am satoshi
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February 21, 2013, 06:16:36 PM
 #14

Euphoria.

We are going to drive this sucker into the ground.
I'm not going to say you're wrong. I'm an idiot at predicting market moves - the only way I survive in trading at all is by strict adherence to a system. But I can't help but think back to three weeks ago, when we were at $20/BTC and you read the market as being "between greed and delusion" on the bubble chart, and wonder whether you might be a little overeager to call the top.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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February 21, 2013, 07:58:43 PM
 #15

You are right.

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.
molecular
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February 21, 2013, 08:02:39 PM
 #16

You are right.

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.


Hmm, something that will change your mind. And upward move can't be it, that would just reinforce you current evaluation, right? So you're basically waiting for a drop just like anyone here with fiat on their hands.

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Crypt_Current
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February 21, 2013, 08:10:10 PM
 #17

bahhhh, admadsdhtigfsodigfbit made me used to backwards-ass polls; i ended up voting "anxiety" when I meant to vote "thrill".  Please take this into account when analyzing this particular bullshit.

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evolve
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February 21, 2013, 08:16:01 PM
 #18

You are right.

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.


Hmm, something that will change your mind. And upward move can't be it, that would just reinforce you current evaluation, right? So you're basically waiting for a drop just like anyone here with fiat on their hands.


Oh, I am definitely waiting for a drop.  A long period of stagnation (like we had around $5) might convince me as well.
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February 21, 2013, 08:21:03 PM
 #19

You are right.

I just don't think the market is sustainable right now.  The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is that I am completely out of the market now (I was daytrading/swingtrading up until the mini crash/recovery last week).  The fact that we have moved this high this quickly coupled with the unrelenting optimism scares me, and I really believe the price could tank at any given moment...which is why I am staying in USD until I see something in the market that changes my mind.


The difference between a few weeks ago and now (for me anyways) is about 10-15 terahashes/s, give or take a couple terahashes.  The increase in fiat exchange value has pretty much balanced out my returns.

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February 21, 2013, 08:46:50 PM
Last edit: February 21, 2013, 09:10:54 PM by Luno
 #20

There is something that has never been discussed in a speculation thread:

The large number of businesses dealing with bitcoin, making miners, hard wallets, tablets etc, large pools like deepbit that doesn't make a lot of money on mining anymore have a lot of BTC or are dependent of the price not crashing.

If you have hundreds of thousands or even more $$ invested in some business, you  would try to make an agreement with other players to not let the price drop too far either agreeing on a minimum buy back price or promising not to take out profits dispropotionate to the market cap.

If the current "big Bitcoin business world" were all cut throat, trying to undercut each other on the exchanges, there would be carnage, not a good environment for building an economy.

So there must exist some kind of gentlemens agreement at least, otherwise there would be more sense in a coordinated pump and dump as a business model.

that of course implies that we have a silent Bitcoin elite playing the role of the FED?




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