Crash!!crash!!crash!!

[deeplink]

So we can see slow sustainable growth.   I want the bubble to pop hard so the economy can grow at a more "natural" rate.

lol natural in quotes...so not natural at all?

Plus, what's unnatural about the current growth, with exponentially increasing user base, media attention and merchants starting to accept BTC?

[evolve]

So we can see slow sustainable growth.   I want the bubble to pop hard so the economy can grow at a more "natural" rate.

lol natural in quotes...so not natural at all?

Plus, what's unnatural about the current growth, with exponentially increasing user base, media attention and merchants starting to accept BTC?

Natural is in quotes, because I am referring to my own feeling of what the natural growth rate should be (as opposed to any actual metric).

I've gone over this before, but I dont think any of that is driving the price...yes more merchants, better usability, etc are great things for BTC, but the price right now (in my opinion) is being driven by pure speculation (and fueled by over optimism), not usability.

[octopus]

How often would the price need to double in order for us to hit $100bil market cap in the next year and a half - two years?

it would have to ~double twice, so once a year.

[piramida]

At the current rate of doubling every half a year, we get to 100bil capitalization in about 4 years. Sounds about right to me.

[twolifeinexile]

At the current rate of doubling every half a year, we get to 100bil capitalization in about 4 years. Sounds about right to me.

Why doubling every half year is about right?

[Odalv]

At the current rate of doubling every half a year, we get to 100bil capitalization in about 4 years. Sounds about right to me.

Why doubling every half year is about right?

This is what past reality teach us. :-)

[piramida]

yes, bitcoins minimum price has doubled every 6 months so far since the first exchange opened - for the last 3 years, started at 10 cents per bitcoin (sweet times and that's also about when I first heard of bitcoin but stupidly decided to try mining instead of investing), so extrapolating. of course, it can break the pattern and grow faster... or stop growing... we'll see.

[twolifeinexile]

At the current rate of doubling every half a year, we get to 100bil capitalization in about 4 years. Sounds about right to me.

Why doubling every half year is about right?

This is what past reality teach us. :-)

I am curious what the "IPO" price is? Then seems according to your estimation, the IPO price is about 0.1dollar sth, is that true?

[Odalv]

At the current rate of doubling every half a year, we get to 100bil capitalization in about 4 years. Sounds about right to me.

Why doubling every half year is about right?

This is what past reality teach us. :-)

I am curious what the "IPO" price is? Then seems according to your estimation, the IPO price is about 0.1dollar sth, is that true?

Only my pesimistic estimation based on this chart https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=145973.0