Bitcoin to rally to $50+

[Oldminer]

Because of the impending rise in difficulty, next time Bitcoin rallies its going to top $50US..it may even go to $100

Discuss

[airdata]

how long until the next difficulty jump?

I'm not sold on $50, but I think a rally to 40 and stabilization around 35 would be fair.

[Oldminer]

how long until the next difficulty jump?

I'm not sold on $50, but I think a rally to 40 and stabilization around 35 would be fair.

3 or 4 days I believe.

This thread is on the money (or bitcoin lol) http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=7985.0

Theres some BIG money going to pour into Bitcoin speculation shortly and when it does the price is going to explode.

[imperi]

Doublings with Bitcoins come once a month, based on historical data. It will happen but not 3 or 4 days.

[airdata]

at the current rate of network growth, how long is it going to be before block's yield 25btc instead of 50?

I'm interested to see what will happen at that point in time.  With difficulty increases steadily increasing... that 50% split in yield amount added to difficulty should create a significant spike in value.

[Klestin]

at the current rate of network growth, how long is it going to be before block's yield 25btc instead of 50?

I'm interested to see what will happen at that point in time.  With difficulty increases steadily increasing... that 50% split in yield amount added to difficulty should create a significant spike in value.

The network growth rate does not significantly affect the switch to 25BTC.  That will occur on schedule around December 2012. 

/Yes, a steadily growing difficulty does make this happen a little faster, but only due to difficulty adjustment lag.  Dec 2012, plus or minus a few months should be a safe estimate.

[flashy]

Coins dropped by abut $6 the past day and a half, that doesn't have you worried at all? I'm still holding on to my bitcoins in hopes of another rally. I'm just scared I didn't wait too long...

[Astro]

I think the people saying silver parity are correct.. $36

[Adam]

Difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

[Oldminer]

Coins dropped by abut $6 the past day and a half, that doesn't have you worried at all? I'm still holding on to my bitcoins in hopes of another rally. I'm just scared I didn't wait too long...

The thing is there is a 'lower limit' or 'real' value for Bitcoin. I believe thats about where its sitting now ($24). So no, I wouldnt be worried. It will rally again and next time it will go even higher. You just need to be patient.

[airdata]

The rise to $30 was a bit fast... Price before the last difficulty change was around 18.  I would think that 22.50-25 would be  a fair increase along w\ the difficulty.

[Nesetalis]

screw worrying! I'm buying more!

and as for difficulty, it doesnt really make a difference either way... though it is more likely to follow price due to price being raised by new adopters who join in on the mining.

[Oldminer]

screw worrying! I'm buying more!

Yup, buy, mine, and hoard is what I'm doing.

[Astro]

I believe the drop today can be completely explained by the two exchange sites both experiencing unclear problems with USD transfer out (problems that are now resolved).  I know this was because of API upgrades at Dwolla, but that wasn't explained anywhere on those sites.  All most users saw were two things, 1) Senator Schumer saying he was going to shut down bitcoin, then 2) USD transfers suddenly stop working.  All of this combined with the general background noise on the hate-bitcoin sites saying this is a scam, ponzi, etc, caused a crisis in confidence.  Hopefully it will resolve itself.

[enmaku]

Difficulty follows price, not the other way around.

Difficulty follows total hashrate which could be slightly influenced by price, since a higher $/BTC exchange rate makes mining appear more profitable, but price also follows mining in that miners are the initial supply. Once all of the investors have burned off their shares, the miners tend to hold steady with what they deem is a reasonable price for their efforts and so represent a "floor" to the market, which historically has increased proportional to difficulty.

Really, the market is a sort of "strange loop" (as described by Dr. Douglas Hofstadter). Like many things in this world its initial conditions emerged from outside influence and over time the factors which influenced it came to be included within it. The market influences the miners who then influence the market which influences the miners... It's like a big crypto-economic M.C. Escher painting

[Oldminer]

I believe the drop today can be completely explained by the two exchange sites both experiencing unclear problems with USD transfer out (problems that are now resolved).  I know this was because of API upgrades at Dwolla, but that wasn't explained anywhere on those sites.  All most users saw were two things, 1) Senator Schumer saying he was going to shut down bitcoin, then 2) USD transfers suddenly stop working.  All of this combined with the general background noise on the hate-bitcoin sites saying this is a scam, ponzi, etc, caused a crisis in confidence.  Hopefully it will resolve itself.

I agree. As a result the current price is artificial.

[Vladimir]

The best thing one who hold some bitcoin can do is to save them somewhere safe and than come back and check the exchange rate in a year or two.

Meanwhile maybe get some bitcoin biz started up.

[enmaku]

Difficulty follows price. It is the change in price which results in a change in Difficulty, not the other way around. The data shows that changes in Difficulty lag changes in price.

Again, this is only half of the equation. Changes in difficulty lag changes in price during times of increased value because the higher price motivates more people to become miners, thus increasing the number of hashes per second computed by the network as a whole.

To see the other half of the equation, look at the times when it appeared that BTC's value was going to tank, note the point at which the market value refused to go any lower. Plot these low points over time and they also correspond to difficulty, in a much tighter curve than the highs or averages do, actually. This is the low point beyond which the miners are hesitant to sell. This is because unlike investors, most miners have ongoing costs to cover and a profit to make for this to be worth their time/effort. I know my electric bill is certainly high enough that I'd be hesitant to sell below a certain point...

[kwukduck]

Don't you guys know the bitcoin ponzi scheme is collapsing right now??
I sold my coins for 10 dollars before it was too late!

no but seriously... i think 50 is on the high end, im guessing next difficulty will only push it to about silver 35-40 USD

[enmaku]

Don't you guys know the bitcoin ponzi scheme is collapsing right now??
I sold my coins for 10 dollars before it was too late!

no but seriously... i think 50 is on the high end, im guessing next difficulty will only push it to about silver 35-40 USD

Indeed. $30 was actually high for the current difficulty so I'm not surprised at all to see it settle back to $25-ish numbers. The only way the price goes up disproportionate to the difficulty is in the event of large-scale adoption. If an entire country, for example, decided to use BTC as their national currency we'd have to split the ~6.5 million existing bitcoins between a huge number of people. If the average bank account balance in Country X is 0.02 BTC then obviously the things that 1 BTC would buy there would be immensely valuable, hence driving the cost.

Since I didn't hear news about a country switching to crypto-currency I happily sold at 31 BTC and bought back in at 25