Afraid to miss the market crash?

[Bit_Happy]

It's way too early for a 2011 type crash, IMO.
Much more likely, we are due for a choppy, tedious correction to $20.32

[massivebitman]

It's way too early for a 2011 type crash, IMO.
Much more likely, we are due for a choppy, tedious correction to $20.32

Hmmm I guess it's possible.
When I bought in I did so  because I thought the reward halving would cause the price to double to 20ish fast, overshoot it then crash once people realised bitcoin still didn't have enough mainstream adoption to be useful to the mainstream.

I always planned to sell at around 20ish but the damn thing kept going up. I reckon we're set to see a sharp correction to around 22 but so far the rise has far exceeded my speculation expectation.

[Herodes]

I've been watching this market like a hawk, I figure this bubble has got to burst eventually, and when it does, it's going to crash fast (i.e. within a day).

When giving such bold claim, you at least need to spend some brain cycles coming up with some arguments.

[massivebitman]

I've been watching this market like a hawk, I figure this bubble has got to burst eventually, and when it does, it's going to crash fast (i.e. within a day).

When giving such bold claim, you at least need to spend some brain cycles coming up with some arguments.

1. Price of the coin has been rising disproportionately to an increase in utility provided by goods and services, or an increase in usage by new bitcoin users.

2. The main reason for the rise is because of speculation. People are buying and holding on, waiting to sell out at the right time.

3. There will come a tipping point when the market mood changes, and there are no longer enough people interested in buying at the current price. Many will start to sell causing a sudden price drop, others will see this price drop and also sell before a further drop.

4. Panic will set in as people expect a further drop, and realise bitcoin is over priced..

So let me ask.. Of the people on here who hold coins, who is waiting for the right time to sell?

[Herodes]

I've been watching this market like a hawk, I figure this bubble has got to burst eventually, and when it does, it's going to crash fast (i.e. within a day).

When giving such bold claim, you at least need to spend some brain cycles coming up with some arguments.

1. Price of the coin has been rising disproportionately to an increase in utility provided by goods and services, or an increase in usage by new bitcoin users.

That would be your personal opinion, some would think the bitcoin at its current cost is underpriced. Usage of bitcoin has increased, and there's much more substance to the fundamentals now, than there was when the bubble happened the summer 2011.

2. The main reason for the rise is because of speculation. People are buying and holding on, waiting to sell out at the right time.

That would also be your personal opinon. My opinion is that the bitcoin price has increased because of actual increased market demand. There may be corrections of course.

3. There will come a tipping point when the market mood changes, and there are no longer enough people interested in buying at the current price. Many will start to sell causing a sudden price drop, others will see this price drop and also sell before a further drop.

Sure nothing is impossible, but there has been quite a few sell offs during the last weeks, even during this weekend the price took a hit down to 28, but the price has rebounced quickly each time.

4. Panic will set in as people expect a further drop, and realise bitcoin is over priced..

The market is more mature now, and as I said earlier, the fundamentals more solid, so there's real demand

So let me ask.. Of the people on here who hold coins, who is waiting for the right time to sell?

It seems to me you're anticipating that currently we're on the top of a bubble, and that it could burst any time. Personally, I don't think it will happen, and for what it's worth, I've been around since early 2011.

[rpietila]

My friends are either (in descending order of number of people):
- Never owned any, not interested in buying regardless, and waiting "for the bubble to burst"
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting a reliable service through which to buy and store coins
- Never owned any, eagerly awaiting for a pullback but determined on buying sooner or later
- Sold out temporarily and waiting for an opportunity to buy back
- Accumulating steadily, regardless of the price
- Fully invested and planning to sell only to meet expenses or a small fraction of holdings in legendary bubble situations (eg. my friend who sold some in 2011 to buy a farm).

I don't know of anyone who has bought for the purpose of making a quick buck and is still holding. They made their buck already. That breed of people usually aim for 20% profit.

[xavier]

The demand vs supply dynamic on the order book does not point to another crash

There's also one other thing I'd add

In 2011, in the build up to the crash, the atmosphere on these forums was much different. People were talking about Bitcoin taking over the world, becoming the next US dollar, about a massive wealth transfer, things like this.

There was no discussion of any problems or obstacles, no consideration. Bitcoin had also not had some of the damages to its reputation from fraud, hacking, etc.. Many people had invested without considering these aspects.

I'd say the atmosphere is different here today. People are more aware of the risks and are not going to sell out quickly. Many people have seen what happened in the past and taken that into account when they bought into the currency.

Given the supply / demand trend that has been holding up recently, I also think a fizzle out is unlikely. I think we'll see trading in the 28 - 32 range, until further news is released which could affect support or resistance

[donjoe]

It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

[Herodes]

It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

A fizzle back to 20 would still be a success imo.

[TraderTimm]

It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

In your breathless monologue you seem to be forgetting that the people who are used to trading BTC fully realize the potential for any kind of correction or major retracement. The experienced users know the risks, and are riding the trend.

There's nothing to "reassure", price does all the talking. We're here for a reason, even if your shallow analysis seems incapable of describing what that is.

[Comodore]

Lol, there will be no crash. We are going to make new high on mtgox

[notme]

It's funny watching all the Bitcoin fans trying to reassure themselves that the suddenly increased growth rate of the past month somehow indicates a rapidly rising equilibrium point. Much more probably the value will crash or fizzle back to something below $20 before the beginning of Q3 this year. There's no way what's happening now is sustainable. Just check the evolution of the number of companies accepting Bitcoin and you'll see - nothing special happened in January, this is just another hot air balloon, albeit inflating more slowly than the one in 2011.

You may have a point if you can assume that the price was fair before January.  I would disagree with that assumption.

[adamstgBit]

market will not crash, until its clear that its going to crash... wait for 26.42 and then panic sell mmmk?

[Herodes]

market will not crash, until its clear that its going to crash... wait for 26.42 and then panic sell mmmk?

Careful, you'd need to recover losses by playing poker again.

[adamstgBit]

market will not crash, until its clear that its going to crash... wait for 26.42 and then panic sell mmmk?

Careful, you'd need to recover losses by playing poker again.

I make big profits, people say i have losses, I'm confused...

[donjoe]

Lol, there will be no crash. We are going to make new high on mtgox

LOL, who said the two were mutually exclusive?

[molecular]

It seems there is widespread agreement that a bubble and crash are inevitable as a bunch of people who know nothing of speculation start buying bitcoins. Its just a matter of when and where it ends up.

I'm not so sure the cause of bubbles isn't a bunch of people that know a hell of a lot about speculation starting to buy bitcoins.

[molecular]

market will not crash, until its clear that its going to crash... wait for 26.42 and then panic sell mmmk?

that's actually quite a good plan.

[axus]

You have to watch for the spike.  Every crash has been preceded by a rapid spike.  This bubble hasn't been inflating fast enough to pop, because there is a small correction every few days.  What I did was set a sell order on Mt.Gox for where I think the spike will peak.  I haven't had to adjust the spike value up yet, but I will need to soon.