Betting tips discussion

[mOgliE]

Hey people!

I've bet for a few weeks on betcoin.ag mainly on football (or soccer depending on where you're from ^^). And I've been rather successful, a 25% roi so I've decided to share my reasoning here hoping discussion will help me improve those results and maybe helping someone to do the good bet!

Don't hesitate to make any proposition if you feel like you have a good opportunity!


First of all for people not used to regular betting, it's important to manage correctly your bankroll.
I'll update regularly my bankroll here in order to keep a history of it but the idea is the same overall. I manage my bankroll always the same way. I place all my bets as a fixed amount of average 5% of my bankroll at the beginning of the week.

For now my bankroll is of 1125 mB so my fixed bet is of 50mB. That's not exactly 5% but it makes everything much simpler to calculate.

So for this week every bet placed is of 50mB there is absolutely no exception for this rule. That's the most important point to win on the long run! Having a stable and rigorous way of managing your bankroll. There are numerous ways of managing your bankroll, mine is just one. But choose your method and keep to it

[mOgliE]

I've got an unusual number of bets for this Monday,  but we'll when the situation is good you have to know to seize the opportunity. Sometimes I don't bet for 3 days but that's not the case today!


First bet: Croatia Dinama-Sloven
Winner: Dinama odd: 1.21
Reason: easy, Dinama won each and every game against Slovenia since 2011, and they seem rather performant for now not tired at all, a rather safe bet I'd say.

Second bet: Austria KSV-FAC
Winner: KSV odd: 1.65
Reason: KSV has impressive results when they play at home (which is the case here) while FAC is making a terrible season until now, they're the last of the championship. Of course that's not an absolute proof but I'd say any bet with an odd superior to 1.5 is good here!

Third and Fourth bets (so 50 mB each): Switzerland Basel-Thun
Winner: Basel 1.44    over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46)
Reason: Basel is at home and first of championship.  They literally destroyed Thun in most past games, basel won 16 out of the 20 last games against Thun and put more than 2.5 goals in 15 of them
Again any odd superior to 1.25 seems good to me

[mOgliE]

OK there is another page I forgot ^^

Fifth and sixth bets: Ireland derry-finn harps
Winner derry 1.49
Over 1.5 goals 1.45
Reason: I was surprised to find such good odds for the over 1.5 goals. Derry wins a lot at home and finn harps lost a lot when they're not at home. Most importantly, 90% of their games had 2 goals or more.

Seventh bet: England   West Han - Manchester
Winner Manchester   2.5
Draw   3.49
Reason: here I split the bet in two (25 on each)because West han won barely 15% of last 20 games but draw are still common. Here you win either on Manchester or draw with such odds so nothing to be afraid of.

Eighth a.des ninth : Ireland Dundalk-Wonderers
Winner Dundalk 1.18
Over 3 goals 1.76
Reason: Dundalk is at home and first of the championship. Wanderers is tenth. All the games of 2015 were done with 4 goals or more. The ninth is a bit more risky but has a good profit and as Dundalk is at he they should really destroy Wonderers.

Tenth: Costa Rica Alajudense-Herediane
Winner: Alajudense  1.81
This bet is a little bit more risky than usual but the odd I found was excellent for a team playing at home and winning a lot! Nearly 2 for a home play against a bad team? That's a good opportunity! But don't bet if you don't find an odd higher than 1.5 in my opinion.

[Phildo]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

[mOgliE]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite,  you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else

Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet  priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2

Against  the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow

[mOgliE]

A last minute bet for today! (Crazy day indeed) 

Russia: Sp Moscou-Arsenal Tula
Over 1.5 goal odds 1.42
It's really a gamble to bet on one of the two teams as they're both good and efficient. But it's much less risky to bet on the amount of goals! Both teams are rather agressive and around 85% of their games were with 2 goals or more !

[iigor]

Yeah, i love to bet on goals.
Over 2.0 goals is my favourite bet. 
And yes crazy thread but im already loving it.

[Phildo]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite,  you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else

Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet  priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2

Against  the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow

It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.

We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.

[mOgliE]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite,  you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else

Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet  priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2

Against  the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow

It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.

We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.

Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.

[mOgliE]

Here's an important advice for anyone wishing to bet to earn money:
KEEP A RECORD OF ALL YOUR BETS
Of course it's first because you need to keep a track of your method and of your bankroll. But not only.

The bet I made on Russian game was 50mB bet on 1.5 goals or more. It was considered as a loss while game ended 1-2
Of course it was just a small mistakes and thing like this happen. But as I keep a record of all my bets, I saw it immediately and just asked the booker to check. It took 3 minutes to be relayed with a small bonus for the inconvenience and that's why it's mandatory to keep a record of all your bets

[Phildo]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite,  you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else

Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet  priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2

Against  the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow

It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.

We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.

Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.

Would you make a bigger bet on red on the roulette wheel or on the number 7?

If you can't answer that question correctly this project is doomed.

[mOgliE]

Props for doing it the right way by keeping track of your bankroll and listing all of your bets and odds.

I would suggest not making the 50 mB a hard and fast rule. It really doesn't make sense to bet the same amount on a bet with 1.21 odds and one with 1.76 odds. One has a much better chance of winning, so you should bet more on that. The idea of slitting on the West Ham game is a good one, but you shouldn't need to have to make 2 bets to do the common snese thing and bet less on the long shots.

either way, good luck.

Hey there, thanks for your comments.
On the contrary the 50mB rule makes a lot of sense IMHO ^^
Of course you have a higher chance to win on a 1.21 odd than on a 1.6, that's the main idea. But you don't earn money because odds are in your favorite,  you earn money because you believe the odds priced by the booker are higher than what the odds really are! You earn money on that difference and on nothing else

Hence the idea is to have a constant amount for two things:
First is to be forced to keep a constant strategy. Without such thing, how do you determine how much you bet? Problem will be that you'll get influenced by your emotions and your previous bets. Even if you don't want to, at the moment you'll decide how much you bet, you'll get influenced.
Second is to keep in mind betting is relative. You'll earn much more on a bet priced 1.8 if you estimate it's real odd being 1.5, than on a bet  priced 1.2 if real odds are... well 1.2

Against  the fixed bet isn't the only solution, but it's both efficient and very easy to follow

It's easier for accounting, but another method isn't that hard and makes more sense. A common method is that you take your unit size (for you 50 mB) and if the odds are 2.0 or higher you bet 50mB, and if the odds are lower than 2.0 you bet enough to WIN 50mB. That way you get more money on easier bets.

We don't need to go down into all the math, but it is common sense that you should bet more on bets if you are more confident in them, and you should be more confident in bets with lower odds. You are throwing away money and/or opportunity to profit by betting the same amount on a 1.2 bet as a 2.4 bet.

Sorry again but I have the firm impression your reasoning is completely false ^^
What you're saying is in a sense "you bet more on lower odds because you can earn more". That makes as much sense as saying to bet more on a dice game if you have higher chances. You don't make money by betting on confident bets, you make money by betting on bets priced higher than reality by the booker. It's much more profitable to bet on something with a 2.5 odds if you think real odd is 2 than betting on 1.2 odds if real odd is 1.2
But with you're reasoning, taking the odd as an absolute can lead only to great losses because the small odds losses will be much more important than big odds win.

Would you make a bigger bet on red on the roulette wheel or on the number 7?

If you can't answer that question correctly this project is doomed.

You don't understand how betting works your question is flawed ^^
The good question would be:
Would you bet more on something with 50% chance of happening and giving you 2x the amount or on something with 10% chance but giving you 12x the amount?

That's the good question ^^

[mOgliE]

So Monday was a truly bad day for our bets! Nearly half answers were wrong which makes a rather horrible stats with 1.5 average odds ^^

Well shit happens, here two games destroyed our predictions, especially the Switzerland game which was a real surprise. The game was the first draw of last 20 games and one of the only three getting less than 3 goals.

But well that's why it's important to have a good bankroll management.

It's going to be hard to do less good so that's the good news.

[syamster]

The problem with tips are most of them are low odds, so if you are going with 5%, one loss, you have to win atleast 3 matches continuously to collect the loss, so if the odds are more than 1.60, then also you have to get a good percentage of wins to get some profit.

[arseaboy]

well indeed giving you an option and letting you gamble, same way win or win lose or lose it is just same arguments the wisdom is if you are sure and instinct declared it from your heart much provably you will choose the big winnings, the only example that I knew similar to this is a fixed game what if you know that the game is fixed and odds for the weak team is too big but it is already been fixed are going to gamble? so for me this tips will be exempt on some aspects but thank you for opening this mate.

[mOgliE]

Here are the new bets

First: Russia ural-Spartak
Under 3 odd 1.5
It's a really good odd for less than 3 goals.

Second and third: Norway StartIK-Rosenborg
Win Rosenborg 1.35
Over 2.5 goals 1.58
Rosenborg won most of its games with much more than 3 goals

Fourth: Norway kongsvinger-kristiansuund
Win kongsvinger 2
I'm not saying kongsvinger is 100% going to win but they're still having a huge win series and a 2 odd is probably what you could get at best

Fifth: Switzerland young boys-st galen
Win young boys 1.36
Young boys is winning absolutely everything, no way they gonna lose

[mOgliE]

Sixth and seven: Germany basket
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it

Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50

Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose

[mOgliE]

The problem with tips are most of them are low odds, so if you are going with 5%, one loss, you have to win atleast 3 matches continuously to collect the loss, so if the odds are more than 1.60, then also you have to get a good percentage of wins to get some profit.

Indeed you're right but that was a special Monday and it was not my best day for sure xD
Most of other tips are between 1.5 and 2, that's the best area to bet!

[arseaboy]

Sixth and seven: Germany basket
Oliver-Brose
Win Brose -11.5 1.68
Over 154 1.75
I triple the amount to bet on the win of brose simply because they destroyed oliver in the first match with 30 more points, so winning by 11 points is rather safe so with such a good odd you can't ignore it

Eighth Netherlands groningen-heracles
Groningen win 1.97
Again it's an incredible odd for a result of a much with is clearly not 50/50

Iceland stjannan-throttur
Win stjannan 1.35
I doubled the bet here, I don't see how they could lose

I think I'm going to follow you with this handicap for Brose as I also seen the last game of those two team Brose dominant completely and finish the game with the huge edge thank you for reminding me of this game I almost forget to bet from it. good luck.

[mOgliE]

OK guys,today was as good as yesterday was bad!
Most bets were ok, 7/9 is a good ratio. It's enough to earn money on average, but here it's especially good thanks to 2 bets incredible: the basket one and the Iceland game.

It's a day at +184mB for me. I hope you're still following guys, next betting tips are coming soon!