Warning to bears: Big players in China

[deadweasel]

Consider also that the Chinese economy has some underlying issues itself and that it appears to be experiencing some serious bubbles. A reliable store of wealth could be just what smart people are looking for. I bet gold is hard to own there too.

http://sovereignlife.com/blog/2010/chinese-government-encourages-gold-buying/

I'm not sure I understand his hypothesis. My take on China encouraging people to invest in gold is for them to one day confiscate all the gold to back the state currency.

China has a huge gold market, it has been for a long time. Besides, I bet that CPC is invested in BTC itself, you guys have no idea how many of the high-level cadres believe in the "currency war" theory, and they seem to be particularly into the idea of IMF Special Drawing Rights as a global standard currency, probably they are open to other new ideas, and yes, they have got first-class finanical mathematicans/ analysts working for them.

oakpacific, thanks for the input.  I'm not in disagreement, but how much of this is just hearsay?    Will China back their currency with gold in the next few years?  What's you're source, on everything?

[oakpacific]

Consider also that the Chinese economy has some underlying issues itself and that it appears to be experiencing some serious bubbles. A reliable store of wealth could be just what smart people are looking for. I bet gold is hard to own there too.

http://sovereignlife.com/blog/2010/chinese-government-encourages-gold-buying/

I'm not sure I understand his hypothesis. My take on China encouraging people to invest in gold is for them to one day confiscate all the gold to back the state currency.

China has a huge gold market, it has been for a long time. Besides, I bet that CPC is invested in BTC itself, you guys have no idea how many of the high-level cadres believe in the "currency war" theory, and they seem to be particularly into the idea of IMF Special Drawing Rights as a global standard currency, probably they are open to other new ideas, and yes, they have got first-class finanical mathematicans/ analysts working for them.

oakpacific, thanks for the input.  I'm not in disagreement, but how much of this is just hearsay?    Will China back their currency with gold in the next few years?  What's you're source, on everything?

Well, I didn't say China will back their currency with gold, just that buying gold has never been a problem here. The BTC part is of course pure speculation, other than the fact that the demand for BTC is obvious, as has been pointed out by the OP, the "currency war" part could be verified by many media reports out there(I can look them up if you want), the IMF SDR part is really old news, they openly proposed it, the report was everywhere.

[lebing]

It nearly hit 300 yuan (significant psychological resistance for chinese here) and then bounced back (that was the reason for the slight dip a few hours ago). That's 48.2 in USD (while mtgox USD only hit 46). I think what is driving mtgox right now is primarily chinese arbitragers...

Check out the charts:

USD, no significant resistances:




Yuan:



If my hypothesis is correct, we have not seen anything yet. Buckle your seatbelts.

[sStC9]

From what I've read... I think macao is a huge potential for bitcoin. Why? Because they have issues with getting money back and forth across the chinese border. I read that they basically have to get paid once they are back in china since they can't bring money across the border or something.

If anything Hongkong should be the next largest exchange.

Bringing money from and to mainland is never a problem in HK. And HK has the best banking network with the Western. If BTC needs to grow in China, HK is the hub for it.

WRONG!!!!!
There is a LEGAL limit of 10-20kRMB of RMB that can be hand carried across the border. Anything outside of that range CAN BE CONFISCATED.
to do an IBT (inter-bank trnsfer, requires a special licence)

The MAXIMUM you can change at a bank in Hong Kong is 20K a day WITH IDENTIFICATION.

Renminbi Services for Hong Kong Residents

Risk Disclosure Statement
•   Renminbi (“RMB”) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
•   RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions. For instance, for a personal customer who holds Hong Kong Identity Card, conversion of RMB from/to another currency is currently subject to a respective daily limit of RMB20,000 per person per day. Customers may have to allow time for conversion of RMB from/to another currency of an amount exceeding the daily limit. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Up until last year it was only allowed for Hong kong residents.
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201207/25/P201207250563.htm

You obviously don't know WTF you are talking about......

You obviously don't know what the fuck you are talking about. My family runs a jewelry firm in Hongkong and we bank gold and silver for around $225k per day. But we are known in banks like BoC and HSBC so we don't need identification anyway. I have seen and I've heard and i KNOW 100s of times where people has put in 30-40- even 70k with just their passport (they're expats) mostly because they do it with money from our jewelry store. If you could only deposit $3k they would be toast. They go to really any bank, open an account with their passport and they're free to deposit their money, no questions asked. HK-banks are the new swiss banks. And even if it weren't, you could easily have a few dinners and lunches and a little money on the side and there would be no questions anyway. You should know this if you live here, because it's common practice. Everyone and everything can be bought here. Just look at any of the Shenzhen border controls and all the human mules passing by 30 times per day.

 The hongkong bank system is the role model for most offshore banking systems and we're not even considered offshore.

[sgbett]

From what I've read... I think macao is a huge potential for bitcoin. Why? Because they have issues with getting money back and forth across the chinese border. I read that they basically have to get paid once they are back in china since they can't bring money across the border or something.

If anything Hongkong should be the next largest exchange.

Bringing money from and to mainland is never a problem in HK. And HK has the best banking network with the Western. If BTC needs to grow in China, HK is the hub for it.

WRONG!!!!!
There is a LEGAL limit of 10-20kRMB of RMB that can be hand carried across the border. Anything outside of that range CAN BE CONFISCATED.
to do an IBT (inter-bank trnsfer, requires a special licence)

The MAXIMUM you can change at a bank in Hong Kong is 20K a day WITH IDENTIFICATION.

Renminbi Services for Hong Kong Residents

Risk Disclosure Statement
•   Renminbi (“RMB”) exchange rate, like any other currency, is affected by a wide range of factors and is subject to fluctuations. Such fluctuations may result in gains and losses in the event that the customer subsequently converts RMB to another currency (including Hong Kong dollars); and
•   RMB is currently not freely convertible and conversion of RMB through banks in Hong Kong is subject to restrictions. For instance, for a personal customer who holds Hong Kong Identity Card, conversion of RMB from/to another currency is currently subject to a respective daily limit of RMB20,000 per person per day. Customers may have to allow time for conversion of RMB from/to another currency of an amount exceeding the daily limit. The actual conversion arrangement will depend on the restrictions prevailing at the relevant time.

Up until last year it was only allowed for Hong kong residents.
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201207/25/P201207250563.htm

You obviously don't know WTF you are talking about......

You obviously don't know what the fuck you are talking about. My family runs a jewelry firm in Hongkong and we bank gold and silver for around $225k per day. But we are known in banks like BoC and HSBC so we don't need identification anyway. I have seen and I've heard and i KNOW 100s of times where people has put in 30-40- even 70k with just their passport (they're expats) mostly because they do it with money from our jewelry store. If you could only deposit $3k they would be toast. They go to really any bank, open an account with their passport and they're free to deposit their money, no questions asked. HK-banks are the new swiss banks. And even if it weren't, you could easily have a few dinners and lunches and a little money on the side and there would be no questions anyway. You should know this if you live here, because it's common practice. Everyone and everything can be bought here. Just look at any of the Shenzhen border controls and all the human mules passing by 30 times per day.

 The hongkong bank system is the role model for most offshore banking systems and we're not even considered offshore.

occam rang and told me he is quitting the razorblade business cos of this post

I dont know jack about HK either but your explanation sounds pretty much *exactly* how I reckon it is going down, much like it always has everywhere else in the world, since forever.

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