AntMiner S9 rampant speculation thread, have to be quick though

[5h4do3]

S9... Well here's the conundrum

1. bitmain will have to recoup their development costs and if developing tech is like cars its gets exponentially more expensive the more you ahem go faster i.e efficient.
2. the halving... if we assume the jump from 400ph to 1500ph is due to 80% S7's then we can only really expect a 400ph drop
if that on the network hash rate...
3. their efficiency will have to be amazing for them to feasibly sell S9 at current BTC price...

now their underlying reasons are based on current BTC price not changing... if the BTC price changes up enough well then what ive said is a bunch of poo.

Truly I dont think bitmain knows what to price the S7 at it really all depends on BTC price

the gems might be in the second hand market of S7's IMO or even new S7's... we might even get to see $150 S7 price or lower lol which i doubt

[1715572230]

1715572230

[1715572230]

1715572230

[philipma1957]

It will most probably have to still be profitable despite the coming halving, so I'd say 8-9 TH/s with a $1.3k price tag. Maybe super efficient, 0.075w a gh? (Hopefullness)

well  they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

  So under 1400 watts use the 10 pcie cables

the newest s-7 does 4.7th    so 2x that is 9.4 

the newest s-7 does  1350 watts  at the wall


so 9.4  at 1350 watts is a decent guess  that would be  0.143 watts  a gh

They have a bit incentive to   keep watts over 1350 at the wall as that kind of knocks out the evga 1300g2 as a psu  which means they sell more of their psus.

I suspect  that if they could make a .075 watt machine  they would use it in house and sell us a .14 watt machine.

I for one would buy a 9.4th machine  using 1350 watts and put it in the solar array If it was 1000 it would be too cheap if it comes out soon enough.

So I guess 10th 1350 watts  for     1500  which is the typical over price point.   But I would need the machine fast to buy it. Since the 1/2ing is on the way.

[AriesIV10]

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

[philipma1957]

If I can order one on the 21st of may I will.

[fr4nkthetank]

i'm going to guess not much of a hash rate increase.  So 6-7th, but for 1000w.  I'm just taking my speculation from the new graphic cards which are coming out, which a little faster, but mostly more power efficient.  i'm guessing its the same, so a little faster, and less power.  Makes sense with the halving too - s7 will be unprofitable soon after the halving if the market is flooded with new 14/16nm tech.

[suchmoon]

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

S7 was "launched" in August and I got my Batch 1 in October (some lucky buyers got theirs in September).

I doubt the S9 will be available for immediate delivery.

[fanatic26]

S7 Power Consumption: 1293W + 10% (at the wall, with APW3, 93% efficiency, 25C ambient temp)

aka 1422w at the wall at a low ambient temperature


If they plan on selling the same PSUs for the new generation I cant honestly see them going past this number as 1430w is already close to 90% load on the PSU and you certainly dont want to run a PSU at its max rating full time.

[scyth3]

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

I wouldn't trust some random guy that is probably a scammer.

[laowzE]

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

I wouldn't trust some random guy that is probably a scammer.

Sharif is a sales guy for Bitmain, he speaks english, chinese, russian. He was helpful when I purchased my lot of S7-F1!

[philipma1957]

I would have to agree with OgNasty on the release date due to this msg:

"2016-05-11 00:52:07
Hi ,

thank you for your message.

New miner will be S9, it will be launched in 10 days, please check our main webpage for updates.

Best Regards,
Sharif
Sales and Business Development,
Mobile: +86 13264017056
"One small machine is changing the World" "

S7 was "launched" in August and I got my Batch 1 in October (some lucky buyers got theirs in September).

I doubt the S9 will be available for immediate delivery.

If they take orders on May 22  the soonest it get to usa is June 10th gives you about 5 weeks using it before the ½ ing sweeps in and bitch slaps us miners.

[edonkey]

well  they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

Agreed. But I would add that they probably don't want to release a design that would force any significant changes to their existing data center infrastructure.

Therefore the S9 will likely be a drop-in replacement for the S7. In addition to not overtaxing their existing PSUs and not requiring new cabling, it will likely be the same form factor. If true, that would be good news for those of us who already have a PSU infrastructure geared towards S7s.

I have no doubt that Bitmain will try to offer sales in May so that they can cut BW off at the pass. I think that BW said that they won't offer their 14 nm miners till June. But I wouldn't be surprised if that slips past the halving, well after they've sucked out all the sweet pre-halving difficulty that they can.

Regardless, BW's publicly announced plans offer Bitmain another opportunity to pounce and conquer, if they can execute well. Not clear if they will compete on efficiency or cost. Although I suspect that Bitmain doesn't have a smaller nanometer process ready to go. That would suggest that probably trying for another efficiency gain with the existing process, as they did with the S7.

This would further suggest that they can dramatically undercut BW's prices and still be profitable, so it might be wise to not buy the first batch of S9s (as if it's ever a good idea to be the first penguin off the ice flow in this market; my B1 S7s definitely got eaten by the killer whale called "difficulty").

The main open questions are how efficient will the S9 actually be, and what will it cost? Although whatever it costs, it will be too much

[suchmoon]

If they take orders on May 22  the soonest it get to usa is June 10th

How do you figure that? I mean if it's immediate delivery then it would get there within a week, but if it's a pre-order then it can be any lead time, about a month or more based on past performance (e.g. S3 and S7).

well  they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

Agreed. But I would add that they probably don't want to release a design that would force any significant changes to their existing data center infrastructure.

Therefore the S9 will likely be a drop-in replacement for the S7. In addition to not overtaxing their existing PSUs and not requiring new cabling, it will likely be the same form factor. If true, that would be good news for those of us who already have a PSU infrastructure geared towards S7s.

I think the same was said about S5 and S7 yet both miners ended up significantly different from their predecessors. The only constraint now is that they are approaching the limit of 15A household circuits in North America (~1450W or so) if they care about that.

I have no doubt that Bitmain will try to offer sales in May so that they can cut BW off at the pass. I think that BW said that they won't offer their 14 nm miners till June. But I wouldn't be surprised if that slips past the halving, well after they've sucked out all the sweet pre-halving difficulty that they can.

Regardless, BW's publicly announced plans offer Bitmain another opportunity to pounce and conquer, if they can execute well. Not clear if they will compete on efficiency or cost. Although I suspect that Bitmain doesn't have a smaller nanometer process ready to go. That would suggest that probably trying for another efficiency gain with the existing process, as they did with the S7.

This would further suggest that they can dramatically undercut BW's prices and still be profitable, so it might be wise to not buy the first batch of S9s (as if it's ever a good idea to be the first penguin off the ice flow in this market; my B1 S7s definitely got eaten by the killer whale called "difficulty").

The main open questions are how efficient will the S9 actually be, and what will it cost? Although whatever it costs, it will be too much

I wonder if the S9 is really going to be a 14-16nm miner. Can Bitmain attempt to squeeze some efficiency out of their current chips? According to the BM1385 datasheet power consumption can go down by about 30% with undervolting.

[edonkey]

well  they do not want to toss all their psu's away.

Agreed. But I would add that they probably don't want to release a design that would force any significant changes to their existing data center infrastructure.

Therefore the S9 will likely be a drop-in replacement for the S7. In addition to not overtaxing their existing PSUs and not requiring new cabling, it will likely be the same form factor. If true, that would be good news for those of us who already have a PSU infrastructure geared towards S7s.

I think the same was said about S5 and S7 yet both miners ended up significantly different from their predecessors. The only constraint now is that they are approaching the limit of 15A household circuits in North America (~1450W or so) if they care about that.

You could be right. But Bitmain is a huge consumer of its own products. I doubt they'd release a product that causes themselves an expensive infrastructure reset. More likely would be that they will evolve from their current PSUs and data center power capacity to something new over time.

I have no doubt that Bitmain will try to offer sales in May so that they can cut BW off at the pass. I think that BW said that they won't offer their 14 nm miners till June. But I wouldn't be surprised if that slips past the halving, well after they've sucked out all the sweet pre-halving difficulty that they can.

Regardless, BW's publicly announced plans offer Bitmain another opportunity to pounce and conquer, if they can execute well. Not clear if they will compete on efficiency or cost. Although I suspect that Bitmain doesn't have a smaller nanometer process ready to go. That would suggest that probably trying for another efficiency gain with the existing process, as they did with the S7.

This would further suggest that they can dramatically undercut BW's prices and still be profitable, so it might be wise to not buy the first batch of S9s (as if it's ever a good idea to be the first penguin off the ice flow in this market; my B1 S7s definitely got eaten by the killer whale called "difficulty").

The main open questions are how efficient will the S9 actually be, and what will it cost? Although whatever it costs, it will be too much

I wonder if the S9 is really going to be a 14-16nm miner. Can Bitmain attempt to squeeze some efficiency out of their current chips? According to the BM1385 datasheet power consumption can down by about 30% with undervolting.

That really is the big question. On the one hand, I'd love to see a smaller process chip make it to market. On the other hand, no one has really done this.

Bitfury hasn't delivered anything. BW seems close, but since they've been consuming their own products and not offering them for sale, no one outside of their company really knows what they have. All we know is what their press releases say.

If Bitmain has 14-16nm chip based miner for sale before the end of this month, they'll be the first company in the world to pull this off.

[Amph]

Guesses on S9 specs?  9TH/s ~ 1,300 watts ~ $2,200

or more realistically 8TH/s ~ 1,350 watts ~ $1,599

again can they do a smaller unit for those that don't want to wast 1300w of electricity

something with the same hash of the s7 but half the consumption would be great, i would maintain my consumption in the 600-700 range for now

[philipma1957]

Guesses on S9 specs?  9TH/s ~ 1,300 watts ~ $2,200

or more realistically 8TH/s ~ 1,350 watts ~ $1,599

again can they do a smaller unit for those that don't want to wast 1300w of electricity

something with the same hash of the s7 but half the consumption would be great, i would maintain my consumption in the 600-700 range for now

but if they do sell a 600 watt miner it would hurt their psu sales.

[alh]

The last 600W miner that Bitmain supplied was the S5. They haven't tried to do some kind of S7-  or "S7 lite". I think they have lost interest in "down scaling" their miners. I'd love to be proven wrong. 

[philipma1957]

The last 600W miner that Bitmain supplied was the S5. They haven't tried to do some kind of S7-  or "S7 lite". I think they have lost interest in "down scaling" their miners. I'd love to be proven wrong. 

  yeah  I would like a rack setup   with spots for 4 s-9's  and 2 bitmain psus  each use 700 watts

So you buy a

 1 rack
 1 s-9    5th using 700 watts
 1 psu   

 1 rack
 2 s-9  10 th using 1400 watts
 1 psu

 1 rack
 3 s-9  15 th using 2100 watts
 2 psu

 1 rack
 4 s-9 20 th using 2800 watts
 2 psu

[fanatic26]

again can they do a smaller unit for those that don't want to wast 1300w of electricity

something with the same hash of the s7 but half the consumption would be great, i would maintain my consumption in the 600-700 range for now

I am confused. How is it a waste of 1300 watts? The wattage used is directly related to the hashing speed. Having a smaller slower miner doesnt make sense to me. If they are smaller it just means you need more of them to hash at the same speed as a larger unit would run at. The whole point of running the miners is to make a profit and breaking them down into smaller units will increase operating costs.

[philipma1957]

again can they do a smaller unit for those that don't want to wast 1300w of electricity

something with the same hash of the s7 but half the consumption would be great, i would maintain my consumption in the 600-700 range for now

I am confused. How is it a waste of 1300 watts? The wattage used is directly related to the hashing speed. Having a smaller slower miner doesnt make sense to me. If they are smaller it just means you need more of them to hash at the same speed as a larger unit would run at. The whole point of running the miners is to make a profit and breaking them down into smaller units will increase operating costs.

I believe use 1300 watts for mining  would be more what he means.

He could be in a space that has 5 to 6 kwatts of power  lets say a small apartment.
He wants to mine in house  with 600 to 700 watts, 1300 watts.


I found that to mine in my home both s-7 and s-5 need to be down clocked due to sound issues.
I have the power with 2 added 240 volt circuits but the noise is high.

Aslo he could eth coin mine and at the moment  it is a better deal.  So spending power on an s-9 or an eth rig  may make him think he wasted power mining the s-9 since eth coin pays better.

I now spend 975 watts in house on an avalon6 and 1400 watts in house on eth coins.

When summer power price starts on June 1 I will turn the avalon 6 off. As it will no longer pay for power cost.

[fanatic26]

Ya I guess I just dont really look at it from the home mining side as there is no profit to be had that way. Noise, high electric costs, and limited incoming power all to me scream "dont bother" at home.