Mt. Gox drops to 20, reconsidering your mining rigs?

[bcpokey]

Has todays sudden volatile sell-off scared you people newly into bitcoin from building all those fancy expensive new mining farms, or are you still happy @ $20/BTC?

Curious to see how people are reacting to todays drop, biggest in bitcoin history I think (numerically, perhaps not percentage wise), and how it will effect future mining prospects.

EDIT: It is back up to 24 now, but the concept of volatility and potential downward trending of price rather than upward is still a concern for some people I imagine.

[1715478157]

1715478157

[1715478157]

1715478157

[Asamkhyeya]

I feel this is a normal, healthy correction and will continue to mine....

[ensign_lee]

I want to say no, but the reasoning that "price swings are too scary" does not apply to me. How do I vote?

[enmaku]

Just a market correction, nothing to see here, move along people.

P.S. my actual answer is no, but not for the reasons listed. I don't have enough wattage left in my tiny apartment to power any more rigs and still turn on the TV without popping a breaker 

[phishken]

Corrections are healthy, especially after such a rapid rise.   Let it build some support in the 24 level for a few days and we can take off again.

[snoopytime]

Once the mexican mafia figures out you can get $800mirrion of drug money out of the USA without buying 400 suitcases at walmart, bitcoins will be a lot more than $20

[Freakin]

it's not even a market correction, it's just someone selling a lot of bitcoins in a shallow market.

I sold 42 BTC @ 21 because there wasn't much of a floor to protect against further drops.  He stopped selling and I bought back at 22.

[kiwiasian]

Some people got a little too ambitious to set the bid at 30. Now it's just stabilizing at lower $24-27 range, but now since people know it hit the $30 mark people won't buy so it might stabilize in the $20 range. Give it some time...it will be back in the $27 stable range within a few days (I would predict) and then stabilize in the $30 range perhaps after the next difficulty increase (expected to be 787717 in 1151 blks)

[computerparts]

There is obviously a reason for this. IMO people who went in big ordering 20 5870's or 10 6990's or whatever this late in the game are going to lose the most. The bitcoin was backed on nothing more than trust. Since the gov't caught wind of it, people are starting to lose trust. The value will just go down from here. There may be one last spike and that's it. The problem however is not with bitcoin, the gov't can't shut it down no matter how hard they try. What they can and will do instead is go after the exchangers. Mtgox will be the first to get hit. It's not if, it's just a matter of time. Look at what happened to e-gold. For those of you that haven't been keeping up with the latest, I suggest you visit the economics subforum immediately and get the facts. Since most people are driven by greed and are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow, this is the beginning of the end. Get out while you can and make sure you have nothing in any of the exchanges within a few weeks from now. Mtgox WILL get hit and when they do, you want to make sure you don't have USD or bitcoins sitting in there because if you do, you are going to lose every last cent of it.

[shivansps]

yup i will reconsider... ill buy 3 6950 and 2 5770 tomorrow

[Jack of Diamonds]

There is obviously a reason for this. IMO people who went in big ordering 20 5870's or 10 6990's or whatever this late in the game are going to lose the most. The bitcoin was backed on nothing more than trust. Since the gov't caught wind of it, people are starting to lose trust. The value will just go down from here. There may be one last spike and that's it. The problem however is not with bitcoin, the gov't can't shut it down no matter how hard they try. What they can and will do instead is go after the exchangers. Mtgox will be the first to get hit. It's not if, it's just a matter of time. Look at what happened to e-gold. For those of you that haven't been keeping up with the latest, I suggest you visit the economics subforum immediately and get the facts. Since most people are driven by greed and are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow, this is the beginning of the end. Get out while you can and make sure you have nothing in any of the exchanges within a few weeks from now. Mtgox WILL get hit and when they do, you want to make sure you don't have USD or bitcoins sitting in there because if you do, you are going to lose every last cent of it.

How are "they" going to go after an exchange that is based in Japan and has currency accounts around the world?

[dingus]

Of course I am happy at $20. I've been here since $0.70!

[rezin777]

Some people freak out when the sun rises every day. Bitcoin is not a sprint, it's a marathon. Anyone selling cheap video cards because of the impending "crash"? 

[computerparts]

There is obviously a reason for this. IMO people who went in big ordering 20 5870's or 10 6990's or whatever this late in the game are going to lose the most. The bitcoin was backed on nothing more than trust. Since the gov't caught wind of it, people are starting to lose trust. The value will just go down from here. There may be one last spike and that's it. The problem however is not with bitcoin, the gov't can't shut it down no matter how hard they try. What they can and will do instead is go after the exchangers. Mtgox will be the first to get hit. It's not if, it's just a matter of time. Look at what happened to e-gold. For those of you that haven't been keeping up with the latest, I suggest you visit the economics subforum immediately and get the facts. Since most people are driven by greed and are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow, this is the beginning of the end. Get out while you can and make sure you have nothing in any of the exchanges within a few weeks from now. Mtgox WILL get hit and when they do, you want to make sure you don't have USD or bitcoins sitting in there because if you do, you are going to lose every last cent of it.

How are "they" going to go after an exchange that is based in Japan and has currency accounts around the world?

You do know that MtGox website is registered under someone that is on U.S. soil, right?

[rezin777]

You do know that MtGox website is registered under someone that is on U.S. soil, right?

You do know that MtGox is only an exchange and Bitcoin does not need it to succeed, right?

[kirby9058]

Well, I was smart and used my pre-existing gaming rig as my mining rig. Already had a 5830, just bought a 2nd one. If mining stops being profitable for me, at least I've got a decent gaming rig!

[ensign_lee]

There is obviously a reason for this. IMO people who went in big ordering 20 5870's or 10 6990's or whatever this late in the game are going to lose the most. The bitcoin was backed on nothing more than trust. Since the gov't caught wind of it, people are starting to lose trust. The value will just go down from here. There may be one last spike and that's it. The problem however is not with bitcoin, the gov't can't shut it down no matter how hard they try. What they can and will do instead is go after the exchangers. Mtgox will be the first to get hit. It's not if, it's just a matter of time. Look at what happened to e-gold. For those of you that haven't been keeping up with the latest, I suggest you visit the economics subforum immediately and get the facts. Since most people are driven by greed and are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow, this is the beginning of the end. Get out while you can and make sure you have nothing in any of the exchanges within a few weeks from now. Mtgox WILL get hit and when they do, you want to make sure you don't have USD or bitcoins sitting in there because if you do, you are going to lose every last cent of it.

How are "they" going to go after an exchange that is based in Japan and has currency accounts around the world?

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

[BiggieJohn]

my power cost for my 6 GPU's and air conditioning is about $5/day.
As long as the price stays above $10/BTC i will continue to mine.

[Chucksta]

There is obviously a reason for this. IMO people who went in big ordering 20 5870's or 10 6990's or whatever this late in the game are going to lose the most. The bitcoin was backed on nothing more than trust. Since the gov't caught wind of it, people are starting to lose trust. The value will just go down from here. There may be one last spike and that's it. The problem however is not with bitcoin, the gov't can't shut it down no matter how hard they try. What they can and will do instead is go after the exchangers. Mtgox will be the first to get hit. It's not if, it's just a matter of time. Look at what happened to e-gold. For those of you that haven't been keeping up with the latest, I suggest you visit the economics subforum immediately and get the facts. Since most people are driven by greed and are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow, this is the beginning of the end. Get out while you can and make sure you have nothing in any of the exchanges within a few weeks from now. Mtgox WILL get hit and when they do, you want to make sure you don't have USD or bitcoins sitting in there because if you do, you are going to lose every last cent of it.

How are "they" going to go after an exchange that is based in Japan and has currency accounts around the world?

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

USA agencies have no rights over .org, only .com

Which is why the poker sites changed from .com to .net and .co.uk

it's only the people from "the land of the free" who can no longer freely play on those sites. Anyone from anywhere else in the world can use them, lol

[Jack of Diamonds]

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

Register the domain in Russia, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, or Cocos Islands -> Problem solved.

[Jack of Diamonds]

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

Register the domain in Russia, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, or Cocos Islands -> Problem solved.

Besides, pokerstars.com and fulltiltpoker.com work just fine at the moment, and the .net domains were never down to begin with & their site was fully operational the whole time. I follow the news.

[computerparts]

You do know that MtGox website is registered under someone that is on U.S. soil, right?

You do know that MtGox is only an exchange and Bitcoin does not need it to succeed, right?

Unfortunately most people are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow. If the exchanges go away, people have no way to convert it to their currency. When people have no way to convert it to their currency, it becomes worthless to those people. Let's be realistic, how many people do you think went into this without the thought of making money? My guess is very few. What bitcoin needs to survive the gov't attacks is trust in the buyers. Trust in the buyers = more buyers = more demand = rising value. However, there seems to be more sellers than buyers at this moment. Even if bitcoin survives the initial gov't attacks, there is the possibility of it gaining popularity and eventually rivaling the ever falling U.S. dollar. It's a slim chance but a chance nonetheless. Here is a fact. The gov't has swiftfully and successfully shut down any currency that has ever been a threat to the U.S. Dollar. The Liberty Dollar and e-gold are prime examples of such. Would be interesting to see what would happen.

[LudwigDG]

Well I got myself a plan for bitcoin.

I will mine and mine only and for every 3 bitcoins mined I will sell 1 at the current exchange rate. This way I will try to get my cash out and still have bitcoins left in case it does get higher or gets an other speculators peak.

You can call it. accumulative selling

I will also buy one ati 5870 extra this way getting my computer capacity at 66% wich is good enough cause at 100% the card would sit to close to each other witch will make sure that the one above just sucks the head of the one below in and I don't want that.

[mistersaturn]

in advance i apologize for my bad english. i'm not a native speaker.


there are quite a few things to be considered here and most people seem not to see this.
firstly: a market correction was more than necessary, cmon people 19$ per btc and 34$ per btc at the same difficulty, are you shitting me? please, start to think for a second.
secondly: there is no way to wire money to mtgox, it's weekend. weekend always means more fluctuation.
thirdly: maybe most important point. the chain reaction of selling. one starts, price drops, people get scared and sell, price drops even more.

[Jack of Diamonds]

in advance i apologize for my bad english. i'm not a native speaker.


there are quite a few things to be considered here and most people seem not to see this.
firstly: a market correction was more than necessary, cmon people 19$ per btc and 34$ per btc at the same difficulty, are you shitting me? please, start to think for a second.
secondly: there is no way to wire money to mtgox, it's weekend. weekend always means more fluctuation.
thirdly: maybe most important point. the chain reaction of selling. one starts, price drops, people get scared and sell, price drops even more.

Finally someone with common sense. And your English is fine.

[alexbasasa]

...without buying 400 suitcases at walmart...

I lold.

[chungenhung]

You do know that MtGox website is registered under someone that is on U.S. soil, right?

You do know that MtGox is only an exchange and Bitcoin does not need it to succeed, right?

you do know that someone can easily register another website in another country right?

[Bitonetta]

What bitcoin needs to survive the gov't attacks is trust in the buyers. Trust in the buyers = more buyers = more demand = rising value. However, there seems to be more sellers than buyers at this moment.

What bitcoin needs is more support from merchants.  More people accepting them.  If I'm actually able to buy 'needed' stuff with it, I would spend it.  I can't easily buy items directly using bitcoins.  If I can just place my newegg order or amazon order and click pay via bitcoin then it'll take off.  I have no choice but to 'cash' it out so I can spend it.  If a single big merchant accepted it with things that we actually want and use, I'm sure alot of people here would be more then happy to support.  *hint*Follow paypal's footprints!*hint*

[gat3way]

Well, blame it on all those bitcoin calculators. Full of people joining in thinking about "buy 2x5850, then upgrade to 2x5870 in two months, then 2x6990 in two months, then probably 7990s...then probably a second rig...then another rig...then a yacht".

Sorry, no free lunch.

[rezin777]

...then a yacht".

Sorry, no free lunch.

What?! Those calculators are wrong? But I'm so close to my yacht! Wait, can I see what is behind curtain two? 

[Bitonetta]

Well, blame it on all those bitcoin calculators. Full of people joining in thinking about "buy 2x5850, then upgrade to 2x5870 in two months, then 2x6990 in two months, then probably 7990s...then probably a second rig...then another rig...then a yacht".

Sorry, no free lunch.

Haha... It's amusing reading these posts.  "Hi I've never built a computer before but ready to drop all this money on 4x Radeon cards for my very first attempt.  Is this OK?" posts.

[Veldy]

Has todays sudden volatile sell-off scared you people newly into bitcoin from building all those fancy expensive new mining farms, or are you still happy @ $20/BTC?

Curious to see how people are reacting to todays drop, biggest in bitcoin history I think (numerically, perhaps not percentage wise), and how it will effect future mining prospects.

EDIT: It is back up to 24 now, but the concept of volatility and potential downward trending of price rather than upward is still a concern for some people I imagine.

It dropped almost without a doubt due to pent up volume of people wanting to sell and cash out through MtGox and Dwolla, but were waiting on the trade until they got things working again.  To me, the drop was expected.   Further evidence of this is that TradeHill for a small while went UP at the same time and topped $30 for a bit with their "Instant Payout" before also dropping [but always higher than MtGox which suggests that MtGox trades were driving the drop].  This may actually be a good point to buy, but what do I know.  Personally, this feels like the natural price [as the market seems at the moment] right now and it will probably flutter around this amount until the next difficulty rise when it tends to go up again.  I don't know, but I think the price support seems to be driven by miners continuously putting new hardware online which has been keeping the blocks/hour roughly at 8-9 for weeks now [which is too high!] and thus supplying and adequate supply of coins to new people speculating a little in the market who are hearing of this for the first time.  I have a post elsewhere with my theory on how this is all going to play out and it is not pretty for the small miners (each day or difficulty jump, the hashing rate which defines "small" is growing and if people are investing money they can't afford or using credit to build rigs, then they are taking a huge risk, especially if they are "small" or will be "small" in a few weeks or even months).  Price is all that is supporting the current mine effort; two months back, but at today's difficulty and you would look at the price and walk away without thinking twice about building a rig).

What do people think a bitcoin is really worth anyway?  What do you think a house is really worth?  

The answer to both these questions depends on when you ask the question.  A lot of people were burned by not asking themselves the same question when they purchased their homes.  Bitcoin is different though; TradeHill for instance offers a lot of options to use funds from bitcoin trades.  I don't think large vendors, the type to draw common consumers, will be accepting bitcoins anytime soon, but trading bazaars and such may act as a proxy and that could change things a bit.  

I posted elsewhere in these forums [I don't recall where], my, perhaps crazy and maybe cynical theory of relatively near term future of the bitcoin economy.  My fear is that the large scale mining may actually ruin it [I think the intention was to have lots and lots of people easily mining over time at a relatively constant rate and not just a few individuals doing most of it at accelerating rates which is where we are headed ... the acceleration is real NOW or we would come to rest at about 6 blocks per hour].

[bodhipraxis]

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

Register the domain in Russia, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, or Cocos Islands -> Problem solved.

You know that Cocos Islands domain registration is controlled by a VeriSign company, right?

[bcpokey]

wow back down to 13 last night.

[Jack of Diamonds]

wow back down to 13 last night.

I bought mass at 13.6. Thanks to whoever panicked, lol.

[Sukrim]

wow back down to 13 last night.

I bought mass at 13.6. Thanks to whoever panicked, lol.

Damn, I sold my play money on MtGox @ ~30 but bought back in @ ~28 and went to sleep...

Tonight I'll stay awake...

Playing with volatile markets is fun - especially when you win a few bitcoins in the process!

[Swishercutter]

You do know that MtGox website is registered under someone that is on U.S. soil, right?

You do know that MtGox is only an exchange and Bitcoin does not need it to succeed, right?

Unfortunately most people are using bitcoin as nothing more than a cash cow. If the exchanges go away, people have no way to convert it to their currency. When people have no way to convert it to their currency, it becomes worthless to those people. Let's be realistic, how many people do you think went into this without the thought of making money? My guess is very few. What bitcoin needs to survive the gov't attacks is trust in the buyers. Trust in the buyers = more buyers = more demand = rising value. However, there seems to be more sellers than buyers at this moment. Even if bitcoin survives the initial gov't attacks, there is the possibility of it gaining popularity and eventually rivaling the ever falling U.S. dollar. It's a slim chance but a chance nonetheless. Here is a fact. The gov't has swiftfully and successfully shut down any currency that has ever been a threat to the U.S. Dollar. The Liberty Dollar and e-gold are prime examples of such. Would be interesting to see what would happen.

The Liberty dollar people got in trouble for calling their money "dollars" along with other similarities to real US currency.  My understanding is that they were busted for insinuating their money was backed the same way as the federal government...Bitcoin has never made any statements about value...it has been clear from the start that it is only worth what people will pay for it...like a baseball card (remember when those were worth something).

From wikipedia:
§ 514. Fictitious obligations

(a) Whoever, with the intent to defraud—
(1) draws, prints, processes, produces, publishes, or otherwise makes, or attempts or causes the same, within the United States;
(2) passes, utters, presents, offers, brokers, issues, sells, or attempts or causes the same, or with like intent possesses, within the United States; or
(3) utilizes interstate or foreign commerce, including the use of the mails or wire, radio, or other electronic communication, to transmit, transport, ship, move, transfer, or attempts or causes the same, to, from, or through the United States,
any false or fictitious instrument, document, or other item appearing, representing, purporting, or contriving through scheme or artifice, to be an actual security or other financial instrument issued under the authority of the United States, a foreign government, a State or other political subdivision of the United States, or an organization, shall be guilty of a class B felony.
(b) For purposes of this section, any term used in this section that is defined in section 513 (c) has the same meaning given such term in section 513 (c).
(c) The United States Secret Service, in addition to any other agency having such authority, shall have authority to investigate offenses under this section.

The minting of Liberty dollars also appears to be in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 486:

    Whoever, except as authorized by law, makes or utters or passes, or attempts to utter or pass, any coins of gold or silver or other metal, or alloys of metals, intended for use as current money, whether in the resemblance of coins of the United States or of foreign countries, or of original design, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than five years, or both.

[Swishercutter]

wow back down to 13 last night.

I bought mass at 13.6. Thanks to whoever panicked, lol.

...and that is the reaction I wish I had the money for...when the price drops buy more...it will go back up, its always easy to make money on peoples panics.  I spent all my available funds on mining rigs.

[jasonk]

Wow great time to buy people!  It will go back up early next week I suspect.

Dwolla transfers were holding things up + its the weekend now!

[Meman]

The BTC Market cleans up itself, pushing the sheeps out of it.

[Sukrim]

Won't take long until MtGox is empty!
Only ~150k USD in bids until 10 USD has been reached...

The market needs both BTC and (even more) USD very fast or it might become _very_ volatile.

Nice weekend for gamblers, just earned another BTC on a price swing.

[Meman]

lol, the sheeps are in panic mode. trust me, they'll be back - after the next BTC price explosion.

[bcpokey]

Honestly looking at all the new "help me build my new rig" threads that are still popping up, looks like most sheep aren't even really aware of the happenings. Whether that's good or bad, who knows.

[snoopytime]

lol most sheep only have one browser open, and its pointing to 'sheepegg.com' rofl rofl

[Freakin]

Lol for some reason this just made me think of a little sheep.exe program that floated around in the late 90's.  You could run as many copies as you want and each copy creates a little bleating sheep that you can throw around you screen.  Anyone else remember that?

[AngelusWebDesign]

This thread needs to get renamed -- not $20, but $12!

[chungenhung]

This thread needs to get renamed -- not $20, but $12!

No, it is $10 now.

[Chucksta]

Gits !!!  you got me all excited, saying it was $10 $12

I went on MT Gox, ready to part with $1k, only to find the price over $20

gits,

LOL

[mouser98]

you need another option:  am satisfied with my rig, no plans to increase or decrease mining operations.

in another thread someone mentioned the relation between price and difficulty at difficulty divided by 25,000.  at current difficulty, that puts the price at $22.69, which is pretty close to the point the mt gox price seems to be swinging around.  of course, the denominator, 25000, will go down as more FRNs show up in the market.

in any case, i can see no reason to panic.

[benx009]

Yeah, sure, Bitcoin being at 16.5 (currently) sucks, but I'm not really losing anything.  I've basically refused to toss in any of my personal money directly into buying bitcoins.  I have used my money however to buy hardware, so if Bitcoin regrettably tanks, I can just sell that and be left only with my losses paying for electricity (some of which will be covered by the bitcoins I'm generating now).  Best m.o. for now if you asked me.

[ensign_lee]

The same way they shut down pokerstars and fulltiltpoker whenever they decided they wanted to (both of which were based in other countries). Seize the domain and put scary FBI warning signs up (like the one currently on http://bookmaker.com/ which they also did it to) warning people to stay away.

Concentrated sites are easy to take down.

Register the domain in Russia, Finland, Switzerland, Japan, or Cocos Islands -> Problem solved.

Besides, pokerstars.com and fulltiltpoker.com work just fine at the moment, and the .net domains were never down to begin with & their site was fully operational the whole time. I follow the news.

They're fine now because they struck deals with the US DoJ to do so.

Listen, I love bitcoin as much as anyone else, but the fact of the matter is, it is not impossible to stop...or at least wound very severely.