Bitcoin Forum
June 19, 2024, 11:52:51 PM *
News: Voting for pizza day contest
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Pages: [1]
  Print  
Author Topic: Bitcoin Halving - here's the math  (Read 1170 times)
cyberguy (OP)
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 34
Merit: 4


View Profile WWW
May 15, 2016, 03:07:36 PM
Merited by TheWolf666 (1)
 #1

The Bitcoin system has been designed so that the reward for mining a block is halved after every 210000 blocks. When block 0 (also known as the genesis block) was mined in early 2009 it was 50 BTC (five billion satoshi) https://blockchain.info/block-index/14849/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

The first halving took place on reaching block 210000 towards the end of 2012, after which the reward for mining a block became 25BTC (2.5 billion satoshi) https://blockchain.info/block-index/270670/000000000000048b95347e83192f69cf0366076336c639f9b7228e9ba171342e It remains at this value today and will continue untill reaching block 419999. From block 420000 the reward will be 12.5 BTC.

It is generally mentioned that the total bitcoins that will ever be mined is approximately 21 million BTC. The math involved here uses geometric progressions (GP) . This is an ordered sequence of numbers where each number (or term) is obtained by multiplying the previous number by a fixed amount. e.g. consider the sequence 1,2,4,8,... here the fixed amount is 2. This is known as the common ratio of the geometric progression and is referred to by the letter 'r'. The letter 'a' is used to refer to the first term of a GP. So for the above GP a = 1 and r = 2.

If the common ratio (r) is a fractional value less than 1, this results in a GP where the terms decrease. e.g. 100000,50000,25000,12500,6250,... is a GP where a = 100000 and r = 1/2. GPs that have such common ratios are said to be convergent. It is a property of all convergent GPs, that the total obtained by adding any number of terms in such a GP (no matter how many terms) will always be less than a fixed value reffered to as the 'sum to infinity' of the GP. We shall refer to this as 'S'. It is obtained according to the simple formula given below

S = a/(1-r)

In other words, to obtain the 'sum to infinity' of a given convergent GP, subtract the common ratio from one, and then divide the first term by the answer obtained. Accordingly, for the GP 100000,50000,25000,12500,6250,... where a = 100000 and r = 1/2, S = 100000/(1-1/2) which gives 200000. What this means in practice is, that no matter how far we continue the above GP, the total obtained by adding together all the terms will always remain below 200000.

Now, let us see how this applies to Bitcoin. Here we will form a GP where the terms will be the total mining reward for a group of 210000 blocks.

for block 000000 to block 209999 total reward = 50 x 210000 = 10500000 BTC
for block 210000 to block 419999 total reward = 25 x 210000 = 5250000 BTC
for block 420000 to block 629999 total reward = 12.5 x 210000 = 2625000 BTC
for block 630000 to block 839999 total reward = 6.25 x 210000 = 1312500 BTC

and so on

It can be seen that we get a GP where a = 10500000 and r = 0.5 (or 1/2)
from this we can see that S = 10500000/(1-0.5) = 21000000

this means that the total reward obtained by mining all blocks that exist at any point in time (whether in the past or the future) will be less than 21000000 BTC. Since it is the bitcoins produced through mining that enter and circulate in the bitcoin economy, this means the total BTC in circulation will always be less than 21 million BTC. It should be noted that this also means that exactly 21 million BTC will never come into existence.

The table given below shows the mining reward in satoshis per block as the block chain grows
( 1 BTC = 100000000 satoshi )

Code:

 start        finish   reward per block
 block        block      (satoshi)

 000000       209999      5000000000
 210000       419999      2500000000
 420000       629999      1250000000
 630000       839999      625000000
 840000      1049999      312500000
1050000      1259999      156250000
1260000      1469999      78125000
1470000      1679999      39062500
1680000      1889999      19531250
1890000      2099999      9765625
2100000      2309999      4882812
2310000      2519999      2441406
2520000      2729999      1220703
2730000      2939999      610351
2940000      3149999      305175
3150000      3359999      152587
3360000      3569999      76293
3570000      3779999      38146
3780000      3989999      19073
3990000      4199999      9536
4200000      4409999      4768
4410000      4619999      2384
4620000      4829999      1192
4830000      5039999      596
5040000      5249999      298
5250000      5459999      149
5460000      5669999      74
5670000      5879999      37
5880000      6089999      18
6090000      6299999      9
6300000      6509999      4
6510000      6719999      2
6720000      6929999      1


Since 1 satoshi is the smallest unit of transaction in the Bitcoin system, when halving results in fractions of a satoshi, the fractional part is discarded. This will first happen on reaching block 2100000 and many times thereafter until ultimately the block reward comes down to 1 satoshi on reaching block 6720000. This means that from block 6930000 there will be no mining reward, and hence no new bitcoins produced through mining. At such a time miners will only get the tranaction fees, but it is expected that by such time the value of 1 BTC will be high enough for transaction fees alone to be sufficient compensation for miners.
If we use the above figures and calculate the total quantity of BTC produced, the figure obtained is 20999999.97480000 BTC, which is 2520000 satoshi less than 21 million BTC, and confirms the fact that the total BTC mined will be less than 21 million BTC as mentioned above.

The Bitcoin system has been designed so that new blocks are produced through mining at an approximate rate of 1 block per 10 minutes, which comes to around 144 blocks per day. So the time taken to reach block 6930000 should be 6930000/144 = 48125 days, which is a little less than 132 years. We know that the genesis block was mined, most probably by Satoshi Nakamoto himself, on 03-01-2009 as indicated on the blockchain at https://blockchain.info/block-index/14849/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f. This means that by the end of 2140, block 6930000 would be reached. This is why it is said that the last satoshi would be mined in 2140, and that no new bitcoins would ever be produced thereafter.
Cuidler
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 294
Merit: 250


View Profile
May 15, 2016, 03:26:51 PM
 #2

It should be noted that this also means that exactly 21 million BTC will never come into existence.

Yes, because of rounding down. 50 BTC * 100 million Satoshi is not product of 2 power, thats why rounding down comes in the play, like when halving from 9 Satoshi rounded down to 4 Satoshi.

But people like round numbers like starting 50 BTC * 100 million Satoshi block reward, proving Satoshi is just human afterall.

.Liqui Exchange.Trade and earn 24% / year on BTC, LTC, ETH
....Brand NEW..........................................Payouts every 24h. Learn more at official thread
knowhow
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 560
Merit: 500


View Profile
May 15, 2016, 03:51:57 PM
 #3

A lot and usefull information you letting me know about all prediction and period in just one single post,well the concept of bitcoin distribution its amazing,and at the moment all people know thats there is a limit till 2140 but the question is what will happen in 2041 as the mine will be over,miners wont turn off,otherwise the security of bitcoin would be lost.
aso118
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1918
Merit: 1012


★Nitrogensports.eu★


View Profile
May 15, 2016, 04:00:28 PM
 #4

A lot and usefull information you letting me know about all prediction and period in just one single post,well the concept of bitcoin distribution its amazing,and at the moment all people know thats there is a limit till 2140 but the question is what will happen in 2041 as the mine will be over,miners wont turn off,otherwise the security of bitcoin would be lost.

Transaction fees will take over. In any case, we will all be dead by then.
Btw you wrote 2041 instead of 2141.


           █████████████████     ████████
          █████████████████     ████████
         █████████████████     ████████
        █████████████████     ████████
       ████████              ████████
      ████████              ████████
     ████████     ███████  ████████     ████████
    ████████     █████████████████     ████████
   ████████     █████████████████     ████████
  ████████     █████████████████     ████████
 ████████     █████████████████     ████████
████████     ████████  ███████     ████████
            ████████              ████████
           ████████              ████████
          ████████     █████████████████
         ████████     █████████████████
        ████████     █████████████████
       ████████     █████████████████
▄▄
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██     
██
██
▬▬ THE LARGEST & MOST TRUSTED ▬▬
      BITCOIN SPORTSBOOK     
   ▄▄
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██
██     
██
██
             ▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀▄
     ▄▄▄▄▀▀▀▀        ▀▄▄▄▄           
▄▀▀▀▀                 █   ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄▄
█                    ▀▄          █
 █   ▀▌     ██▄        █          █               
 ▀▄        ▐████▄       █        █
  █        ███████▄     ▀▄       █
   █      ▐████▄█████████████████████▄
   ▀▄     ███████▀                  ▀██
    █      ▀█████    ▄▄        ▄▄    ██
     █       ▀███   ████      ████   ██
     ▀▄        ██    ▀▀        ▀▀    ██
      █        ██        ▄██▄        ██
       █       ██        ▀██▀        ██
       ▀▄      ██    ▄▄        ▄▄    ██
        █      ██   ████      ████   ██
         █▄▄▄▄▀██    ▀▀        ▀▀    ██
               ██▄                  ▄██
                ▀████████████████████▀




  CASINO  ●  DICE  ●  POKER   
▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
   24 hour Customer Support   

▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀
7788bitcoin
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2282
Merit: 1023


View Profile
May 15, 2016, 04:46:39 PM
 #5

The prediction of halving dates is based on an average block time of 10 minutes. So far the block time is almost all <10 min. Therefore the estimate of 2140 will come earlier if bitcoin keep on growing.
calkob
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1092
Merit: 520


View Profile
May 15, 2016, 09:38:58 PM
 #6

I like math...... it is so sure and i like sure things.
cyberguy (OP)
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 34
Merit: 4


View Profile WWW
May 15, 2016, 10:59:38 PM
 #7

The prediction of halving dates is based on an average block time of 10 minutes. So far the block time is almost all <10 min. Therefore the estimate of 2140 will come earlier if bitcoin keep on growing.

isn't this related to the manner in which the difficulty target is recalculated, as defined by the developers ? am I correct in understanding that if the 10 minutes average is to be brought down, some change will need to be done to the code that recalculates the difficulty every 2160 blocks ?
odolvlobo
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 4354
Merit: 3262



View Profile
May 16, 2016, 04:22:03 AM
 #8

The prediction of halving dates is based on an average block time of 10 minutes. So far the block time is almost all <10 min. Therefore the estimate of 2140 will come earlier if bitcoin keep on growing.

isn't this related to the manner in which the difficulty target is recalculated, as defined by the developers ? am I correct in understanding that if the 10 minutes average is to be brought down, some change will need to be done to the code that recalculates the difficulty every 2160 blocks ?

The difficulty computation assumes that the expected hash rate for the next 2160 blocks is the same as the hash rate for the last 2160 blocks. So, if the actual hash rate is higher then blocks will be found more quickly than expected, and if it is lower then blocks will be found more slowly than expected. The hash rate has generally been increasing over time, so blocks have been found more quickly than expected, on average, resulting in a halving date earlier than expected.

Join an anti-signature campaign: Click ignore on the members of signature campaigns.
PGP Fingerprint: 6B6BC26599EC24EF7E29A405EAF050539D0B2925 Signing address: 13GAVJo8YaAuenj6keiEykwxWUZ7jMoSLt
Edwardard
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1050
Merit: 681



View Profile WWW
May 16, 2016, 04:32:32 AM
 #9

I like math...... it is so sure and i like sure things.
but i dont understand anything what op wrote. i will try to learn math someday and increase my knowledge about how bitcoin system works.
Kakmakr
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3458
Merit: 1961

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile
May 16, 2016, 08:01:50 AM
 #10

A lot and usefull information you letting me know about all prediction and period in just one single post,well the concept of bitcoin distribution its amazing,and at the moment all people know thats there is a limit till 2140 but the question is what will happen in 2041 as the mine will be over,miners wont turn off,otherwise the security of bitcoin would be lost.

Miners will continue mining, because in theory the transactions will increase and then the miners fees will be more than the block rewards. Miners will then compete for the bigger miners fees and not really for the block rewards. You will also find that big businesses will rely on the Bitcoin network and will build infrastructure to support mining to keep their other businesses going.

This is still a theory and that's why we still call it an experiment. ^smile^

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
DimensionZ
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 350
Merit: 251


Shit, did I leave the stove on?


View Profile
May 16, 2016, 08:31:43 AM
 #11

But if theoretically the miner fees will cost more than the block rewards and the price of Bitcoin gets very high, doesn't that mean people will spend fortunes in miner fees for moving even small amounts of money? How will this work out in the future?

cyberguy (OP)
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 34
Merit: 4


View Profile WWW
May 16, 2016, 09:13:31 AM
 #12

But if theoretically the miner fees will cost more than the block rewards and the price of Bitcoin gets very high, doesn't that mean people will spend fortunes in miner fees for moving even small amounts of money? How will this work out in the future?

IMHO there are two matters to be considered in answering this question

(1) It is the total miner fees for all transactions in the block that is expected to be more than the block reward. Currently, there are between 1000 to 3000 transactions per block. This is expected to increase as bit-coin becomes more popular.

(2) This situation is expected to occur in the future and not immediately. Perhaps, when mining reward is less than 1 BTC (just guessing, it may be before, it may be after, but most probably not in the near future)
justspare
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1022
Merit: 538



View Profile
May 16, 2016, 10:26:01 AM
 #13

Well that is one of the ways you could explain Bitcoin halving. You could just say that every 210,000 blocks the block reward gets halved. It is pretty easy.
Supercrypt
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1554
Merit: 1054



View Profile
May 17, 2016, 05:18:26 AM
 #14

You just slapped the face of those shill posters who are expecting an increase in the 21 million cap.
Some, if not most, of them are paranoid that at some point in the near future, we'll hit the 21 million cap when in fact, we're probably gone when we're nearing 21mil cap.
Jet Cash
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2744
Merit: 2462


https://JetCash.com


View Profile WWW
May 17, 2016, 05:31:49 AM
 #15

As previous posters have pointed out, there seem to be a couple of flaws in the maths here. One is that block generation time will stay at 10 minutes (approx.), this cannot be true, as for Bitcoin to stay viable and increase in use, generation times need to be reduced drsamatically imho. Transaction reward is based on the value of goods purchased, and not on the value of a Bitcoin. If Bitcoin doubled in value overnight, people wouldn't be prepared to pay twice as much for a pizza just to use Bitcoin for payment.

Offgrid campers allow you to enjoy life and preserve your health and wealth.
Save old Cars - my project to save old cars from scrapage schemes, and to reduce the sale of new cars.
My new Bitcoin transfer address is - bc1q9gtz8e40en6glgxwk4eujuau2fk5wxrprs6fys
Kakmakr
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3458
Merit: 1961

Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform


View Profile
May 17, 2016, 05:35:14 AM
 #16

But if theoretically the miner fees will cost more than the block rewards and the price of Bitcoin gets very high, doesn't that mean people will spend fortunes in miner fees for moving even small amounts of money? How will this work out in the future?

In theory, adoption will grow and this increase in people using Bitcoin, would increase transactions and hopefully the scaling will keep up with that and then bump the block sizes to make room for more transactions. The more transactions you have, the higher the miners fees.

In some time in the future, these miners fees will be more than the block reward, because with every halving that is reduced by 50%.

..Stake.com..   ▄████████████████████████████████████▄
   ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄            ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██  ▄████▄
   ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██  ██████
   ██ ██████████ ██      ██ ██████████ ██   ▀██▀
   ██ ██      ██ ██████  ██ ██      ██ ██    ██
   ██ ██████  ██ █████  ███ ██████  ██ ████▄ ██
   ██ █████  ███ ████  ████ █████  ███ ████████
   ██ ████  ████ ██████████ ████  ████ ████▀
   ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██
   ██            ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀            ██ 
   ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀
  ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███  ██  ██  ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄
 ██████████████████████████████████████████
▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄
█  ▄▀▄             █▀▀█▀▄▄
█  █▀█             █  ▐  ▐▌
█       ▄██▄       █  ▌  █
█     ▄██████▄     █  ▌ ▐▌
█    ██████████    █ ▐  █
█   ▐██████████▌   █ ▐ ▐▌
█    ▀▀██████▀▀    █ ▌ █
█     ▄▄▄██▄▄▄     █ ▌▐▌
█                  █▐ █
█                  █▐▐▌
█                  █▐█
▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█
▄▄█████████▄▄
▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄
▄█▀       ▐█▌       ▀█▄
██         ▐█▌         ██
████▄     ▄█████▄     ▄████
████████▄███████████▄████████
███▀    █████████████    ▀███
██       ███████████       ██
▀█▄       █████████       ▄█▀
▀█▄    ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄  ▄▄▄█▀
▀███████         ███████▀
▀█████▄       ▄█████▀
▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀
..PLAY NOW..
Josef27
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 784
Merit: 1000


View Profile
May 17, 2016, 05:36:09 AM
 #17

Very cool, however I think I just popped my last brain cell, following it. Grin
Pages: [1]
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!