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Author Topic: What will transaction fees be like once no more BTC can be mined?  (Read 1322 times)
ProfessionalGoogler (OP)
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May 15, 2016, 05:04:31 PM
 #1

Will they be high?

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May 15, 2016, 05:58:50 PM
 #2

Will they be high?


Depends on the price of bitcoin and if it is low amount in bitcoin will be high but altogether it should not be more than current fiat rate. Lots of miner may left mining if they don't find it profitable making mining easier so that even at low transaction fee without sufficient block reward bitcoin network will keep running.

 
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May 15, 2016, 06:15:50 PM
 #3

Well thats a question to be handled over the next generations as i doubt we will be alive by 2140 thats when the mine of bitcoin should be over,but sure there is a concern since no more coins,what the miners will get to keep bitcoin security,or what will happen if the hash stop protects bitcoin what would be the next step?
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May 15, 2016, 06:24:58 PM
 #4

Well thats a question to be handled over the next generations as i doubt we will be alive by 2140 thats when the mine of bitcoin should be over,but sure there is a concern since no more coins,what the miners will get to keep bitcoin security,or what will happen if the hash stop protects bitcoin what would be the next step?
I still hold hope for some kind of technology that will allow us to still be here.  I would think it would be a whole new world at that point and bitcoin should finally be the currency of choice, fees would they be enough for miners to keep on mining? who knows, would be nice to have a time machine to have a quick look.
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May 15, 2016, 07:44:49 PM
 #5

Let's hope something's in places or the whole system's gonna fall apart. The more layers there are on top the more expensive it might be to use on chain stuff. Maybe it'll attract news headlines in the future "bitcoin block chain transaction takes place".
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May 15, 2016, 07:54:00 PM
 #6

hah that is really good question, but i don't think we should be worried about it as the last bitcoin is going to be mined in about 120 years  Grin
in that time maybe no life will be left on earth. Maybe miners will work for fee or some new coin will replace bitcoin
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May 15, 2016, 08:24:33 PM
 #7

BTC being totally transparent, you can just calculate:

If the miners want to make the same amount they do today, at a price of 500$/BTC it would work out like this:

1 block (25 bitcoins) created every 10 minutes -> for each minute, 2.5 bitcoins are created X $500/bitcoin = $1250/minute.
So every minute $1250 in fees needs to come from transactions (instead of the block rewards today).
Using 5  transactions/sec as maximum speed (with current block size), 300 transactions each minute.
$1250/300 transactions = $4,16 per transaction.

Of course this changes as the metrics change:
2x higher BTC price -> 2x higher fees
2x more transactions per block -> 1/2 fees


=P
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May 15, 2016, 09:38:17 PM
 #8

They are certain to be higher but there is more likly to be higher transactions on the network by then also which means more people spending....Smiley
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May 16, 2016, 12:30:10 AM
 #9

hah that is really good question, but i don't think we should be worried about it as the last bitcoin is going to be mined in about 120 years  Grin
in that time maybe no life will be left on earth. Maybe miners will work for fee or some new coin will replace bitcoin

I agree with you this should be the least of our question ,our goal right now is to have bitcoin embrace but all people and merchants and to have it at five digit value..

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May 16, 2016, 12:36:30 AM
 #10

That won't be for a long time and it will probably increase a bit. Most of use won't even be alive when the last block is mined. They most likely will be proportionate according to bitcoins price.
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May 16, 2016, 12:43:19 AM
 #11

BTC being totally transparent, you can just calculate:

If the miners want to make the same amount they do today, at a price of 500$/BTC it would work out like this:

1 block (25 bitcoins) created every 10 minutes -> for each minute, 2.5 bitcoins are created X $500/bitcoin = $1250/minute.
So every minute $1250 in fees needs to come from transactions (instead of the block rewards today).
Using 5  transactions/sec as maximum speed (with current block size), 300 transactions each minute.
$1250/300 transactions = $4,16 per transaction.

Of course this changes as the metrics change:
2x higher BTC price -> 2x higher fees
2x more transactions per block -> 1/2 fees

Are you sure it's that easy? Clearly the metrics you state do influence transaction fees. But there are also a number of other factors that make calculation a bit more complicated or outright impossible.

For example, one has to consider investment costs in hardware and the efficiency of the hardware. Also cost of electricity is important. I think as we head into the future, efficiency will improve further on all fronts due to increased competition - that might even include use of heat generated by miners for industrial purposes. Therefore I expect that the cost per transaction will increase far less than a simple calculation based on number of transactions, reward, and blocksize might suggest.

(Btw. I think that 2x higher BTC price leads to half the fees in BTC and the same fees in fiat.)

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May 16, 2016, 12:53:26 AM
 #12

BTC being totally transparent, you can just calculate:

If the miners want to make the same amount they do today, at a price of 500$/BTC it would work out like this:

1 block (25 bitcoins) created every 10 minutes -> for each minute, 2.5 bitcoins are created X $500/bitcoin = $1250/minute.
So every minute $1250 in fees needs to come from transactions (instead of the block rewards today).
Using 5  transactions/sec as maximum speed (with current block size), 300 transactions each minute.
$1250/300 transactions = $4,16 per transaction.

Of course this changes as the metrics change:
2x higher BTC price -> 2x higher fees
2x more transactions per block -> 1/2 fees



Good math, and the results are not bad either. 4.16 per transaction does tno seem to high if we compare with bank transfers.

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May 16, 2016, 12:55:57 AM
 #13

Fees i think would be adjusted and I think they will do this after halving to balance and keep the miners mining. Or else it would be the start of bitcoin to gradually stop and may be replaced by newer and sophisticate coin. There are good alternatives anyway and so the path of btc depends to the devs where they'd had to solve issues for the future.









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May 16, 2016, 01:34:48 AM
 #14

Will they be high?


wow, you think too far. there are still much bitcoins available to be mined, and I don't think it will be complete mined in the next fifty years. even if no bitcoins are available to be mined, the fees still depend on the price.

I think you're too worried about that.

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May 16, 2016, 01:55:53 AM
 #15

Will they be high?



By that time I doubt we'll still be using PoW so it's very difficult to predict how the forks will play out.

If the consensus decision making process can somehow be "restored and maintained", I feel whatever the solution it is likely to be fair.

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May 16, 2016, 02:30:15 AM
 #16

Will they be high?


wow, you think too far. there are still much bitcoins available to be mined, and I don't think it will be complete mined in the next fifty years. even if no bitcoins are available to be mined, the fees still depend on the price.

I think you're too worried about that.

Not "worried" about anything but more for curiosity.
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May 16, 2016, 02:39:22 AM
 #17

I am also wondering about the price of the bitcoin when the the last bitcoin have been mined and there is no more bitcoin mining. I think the fee will be higher then now.
but the truth is it will never happen in early future. bitcoin will always mine as same.
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May 16, 2016, 03:07:15 AM
 #18

It is a very nice question. but i dont think mining will be stopped soon. maybe after we die there could be such problems but not now. so dont think about it.
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May 16, 2016, 03:17:19 AM
 #19

Fees i think would be adjusted and I think they will do this after halving to balance and keep the miners mining. Or else it would be the start of bitcoin to gradually stop and may be replaced by newer and sophisticate coin. There are good alternatives anyway and so the path of btc depends to the devs where they'd had to solve issues for the future.

I don't think it needs to be adjusted manually to fit the miners, in fact the fees market already adjusts for itself. We're seeing fees higher than they were a few years ago, because the number of transactions exploded and each wants to be processed faster over the other. In a few more years, we'll probably see around ~0.001BTC more or less of fees just to get the transaction processed in the first hour.

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May 16, 2016, 03:52:40 AM
 #20

Will they be high?

Users want low fees. Miners want fees that are high enough to cover costs. The fees will depend on many things including (but not limited to), the number of transactions, the maximum block size, and the marginal cost of including a transaction in a block. They could drop to as low as 1 satoshi.

Ideally, total fees per block will be extremely high (whether due to a high fee per transaction or high transaction volume) because the integrity of Bitcoin depends on it. If the block reward is low enough, then there may be an economic incentive for someone mount a 51% attack.

This points to a flaw in the Bitcoin security model: There is no direct incentive anyone to protect the integrity of Bitcoin. It is a "tragedy of the commons" problem. A user pays enough to motivate a miner to add their transaction to a block, but not necessarily enough to discourage someone from mounting a 51% attack.

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