There is an epic shakeout coming this year before the giga-spike.

[chesthing]

I'm pretty sure there is a shakeout coming, what I'm not so sure about is whether there will be anything that resembles a "giga-spike" after it. That's what makes the shakeouts work, the unknown.

[MatTheCat]

If you drink the idiotic, MatTheCat Koolaid and claim the market can only move in directions that are the reverse of where investors go.  This claim is essentially saying it's not possible for the market to have any fundamentals whatsoever and everything is nothing but a stop loss hunt.  Even if you believed this idiocy, the price was stable at $420 for several months, and the last few attempted shakeouts only got the price to $440, so everyone already knows where the floors are.  Since everyone knows where the floors are, attempting a shakeout is pointless when even more longs would pile in than what already exists.

Here was the last orchestrated shakeout event from like a week ago.  Someone with $3 million or so tried it on Bitfinex.  Bitstamp, Coinbase, and everyone else refused to follow their scam attempt and stayed $5-$8 higher:

You just don't listen to a thing that anyone says and the reason is because you are incapable of taking in any information that is not emotionally appealing and the reason that you can't take in any information that doesn't appeal to your emotions, is because you are a stupid perma-stoned cunt.

My point about the market tending to move against record numbers of margin positions, whether they be longs or shorts, is not up for debate. It has this proven track record. I have posted enough charts depicting it already but anyone can easily go and check it out for themselves. My thesis is indeed, that in the absence of any organic demand, or need to sell, that this market is essentially a money making racket dominated by very few hands, and they will push this market to where the greatest liquidity is and if there are a shit ton of margin longs, and just not very many margin shorts left (after the recent pump which knocked almost half the BFX margin shorts out), then in the absence of an influx of organic demand for BTC, guess where 'they' are going to have push the market in order to extract more wealth out of it?

....and even if 'they' just wanted to get the pump underway in time for the halving, with all those margin longs in place, from prices around here and way down below, as 'they' commence the pump, 'they' are basically going to have to hand over money to margin long traders taking profits from their positions at key levels, as the market rises. If I was a big fat sweaty Chinese Bitcoin Miners syndicate, I would utterly balk at the prospect of pumping BTC only to have a bunch of nasty foreign white folks cash out relentlessly on me, before the public had so much as even broke into a canter towards my asset.....Much better way forward would be to shake all those margin long 'parasites' out of their positions, and that is exactly what is going to happen. Mark my words.

Those BFX longs includes BTC, LTC, and now ETH.  It's a muddy indicator, I wouldn't trust it.

Very good point, but the majority of it, is indeed for BTC longs. Also, their is a more reliable metric which is the BTC swaps, and right now, they are very depressed. Very high margin longs and very low margin shorts are not metrics associated with the base of a big fucking pump. These numbers need to be sorted out, and they will be sorted out.

[gentlemand]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

[afbitcoins]

Yes I remember that shake out when silk road was busted , https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2013/10/02/silk-road-seized/

Something similar could happen again but I'm not counting on it happy to hold what i have rather than waiting for a panic to buy cheap

edit: I think the difference now compared to then is that bitcoin is no longer dominated by one market (silk road) and one exchange (mt gox). Bitcoin has grown and these sort of major events have less impact now.

[Raimonn]

I don't expect a big shakeout, if market prices go ups fast and price doubles before the halving, its very possible that we have a correction movement after the halving, but i don't expect that it could go to prices lower than today levels.

[chesthing]

I don't expect a big shakeout, if market prices go ups fast and price doubles before the halving, its very possible that we have a correction movement after the halving, but i don't expect that it could go to prices lower than today levels.

I suppose the pumpers could just take everyone holding for the ride of their lives from here. You know the bitcoin whales and their legendary generosity. 

[tabnloz]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

Yes, it takes an influx of buyers, plenty of FOMO and market euphoria to induce that rapid escalating price movement. Taking the DotCom bubble as an example, Joe Public was piling into all manner of Internet Stocks convinced that the boom would never end and that all these on-paper companies were destined to be global behemoths. Similar with the housing boom / MBS debacle; Average Joe started flipping houses and traded their careers in to become property developers.

Bitcoin has had its baby bubbles. We've had innovators/techies/libertarians & relative early adopters/dark marketers. So next time, like the famous anecdote goes, if the taxi drivers / shoeshine boys ever start talking up bitcoin, its probably a sign the top is near. All that VC money will start producing products this year & next - maybe the timing will co-incide?

[mtnsaa]

Sorry, no huge shakeouts and no epic spikes, expect a $400-600 trading range thru the end of 2016.

I doubt it will pass $500 really, many here are complete deluded if they think Bitcoin is gonna happen in 2016, this was a complete loss year, multiple bad news everywhere. Either way you have to respect that so far the price has been increasing, nothing compared to most of the predictions (some said it will be around 10k by now lol).

BTC can only pull a chinese miracle in its near future and that's the speculation about the yuan and chinese going for Bitcoin instead of gold, it's a long shot but it can happen I guess. The halving won't make anyone buy BTC at $800 or more like some said. And I would say that BTC will never be at 1k ever again unless there's a huge world economic crisis.

[marcus_of_augustus]

No, no shakeout, sorry bears. Too many bears and sold-out bulls trying to get in cheaper, waiting, always waiting for that one last chance to get in cheaper ... while their fiat funny munny rots away. The more the bears hammer the more solid bitcoin is, we are near rock-bottom pricing now on cost of production and that cost is always increasing, then doubling its rate of increase in July.

Sorry bears, no epic shakeouts, just more seductive, little drops and bear traps 

[americanpegasus]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

Yes, it takes an influx of buyers, plenty of FOMO and market euphoria to induce that rapid escalating price movement. Taking the DotCom bubble as an example, Joe Public was piling into all manner of Internet Stocks convinced that the boom would never end and that all these on-paper companies were destined to be global behemoths. Similar with the housing boom / MBS debacle; Average Joe started flipping houses and traded their careers in to become property developers.

Bitcoin has had its baby bubbles. We've had innovators/techies/libertarians & relative early adopters/dark marketers. So next time, like the famous anecdote goes, if the taxi drivers / shoeshine boys ever start talking up bitcoin, its probably a sign the top is near. All that VC money will start producing products this year & next - maybe the timing will co-incide?

Behold ladies and gentlemen: wisdom.

[jeffthebaker]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

Yes, it takes an influx of buyers, plenty of FOMO and market euphoria to induce that rapid escalating price movement. Taking the DotCom bubble as an example, Joe Public was piling into all manner of Internet Stocks convinced that the boom would never end and that all these on-paper companies were destined to be global behemoths. Similar with the housing boom / MBS debacle; Average Joe started flipping houses and traded their careers in to become property developers.

Bitcoin has had its baby bubbles. We've had innovators/techies/libertarians & relative early adopters/dark marketers. So next time, like the famous anecdote goes, if the taxi drivers / shoeshine boys ever start talking up bitcoin, its probably a sign the top is near. All that VC money will start producing products this year & next - maybe the timing will co-incide?

Behold ladies and gentlemen: wisdom.

What we need is a new buttcoin that can harness the euphoria of its userbase to propagate onto the outside world. If we can make everyone euphoric about butts then its obvious that bitscoin will hit the moon and after that it will keep chugging along to mars and maybe even pluto. If my calculations are correct Butts will be worth $10,000,000 each so anyone owning .1 or more will become an instant millionaire. Feel the rush!

[RyNinDaCleM]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

Yes, it takes an influx of buyers, plenty of FOMO and market euphoria to induce that rapid escalating price movement. Taking the DotCom bubble as an example, Joe Public was piling into all manner of Internet Stocks convinced that the boom would never end and that all these on-paper companies were destined to be global behemoths. Similar with the housing boom / MBS debacle; Average Joe started flipping houses and traded their careers in to become property developers.

Bitcoin has had its baby bubbles. We've had innovators/techies/libertarians & relative early adopters/dark marketers. So next time, like the famous anecdote goes, if the taxi drivers / shoeshine boys ever start talking up bitcoin, its probably a sign the top is near. All that VC money will start producing products this year & next - maybe the timing will co-incide?

Behold ladies and gentlemen: wisdom.

What we need is a new buttcoin that can harness the euphoria of its userbase to propagate onto the outside world. If we can make everyone euphoric about butts then its obvious that bitscoin will hit the moon and after that it will keep chugging along to mars and maybe even pluto. If my calculations are correct Butts will be worth $10,000,000 each so anyone owning .1 or more will become an instant millionaire. Feel the rush!

I'm nuts about butts 

[findftp]

Waiting to buy at 150$...

[readysalted89]

Sorry, no huge shakeouts and no epic spikes, expect a $400-600 trading range thru the end of 2016.

Barring black swan events I think that's the way it will play out. The price should go up towards the end of the year, but not fast. I don't expect epic dumps or spikes this year, possibly next year after the reduced supply starts to bite.

[BTCLovingDude]

whatever happens i will be happy because even if for 0.01% this happens it means that i can buy more bitcoin for lower price and then right after that i will enjoy a big rise. but i will never sell just because there is a small chance of going down.

[Nxtblg]

It's like the dot com bubble, it'll be a few years before we return to the heights we saw in 2013. And you can forget about a bubble too, that ain't happin'.....

The dotcom bubble consumed trillions of dollars and transfixed some of the biggest investors on the biggest markets of the entire planet.

Bitcoin's 'dotcom' took place on some crappy homemade exchanges in far off lands off the back of a few tens or hundreds of thousands of weirdos. It hasn't even gotten off the starting blocks yet.

Yes, it takes an influx of buyers, plenty of FOMO and market euphoria to induce that rapid escalating price movement. Taking the DotCom bubble as an example, Joe Public was piling into all manner of Internet Stocks convinced that the boom would never end and that all these on-paper companies were destined to be global behemoths. Similar with the housing boom / MBS debacle; Average Joe started flipping houses and traded their careers in to become property developers.

Bitcoin has had its baby bubbles. We've had innovators/techies/libertarians & relative early adopters/dark marketers. So next time, like the famous anecdote goes, if the taxi drivers / shoeshine boys ever start talking up bitcoin, its probably a sign the top is near. All that VC money will start producing products this year & next - maybe the timing will co-incide?

Behold ladies and gentlemen: wisdom.

I have to second that because it's in line with my own thoughts. Using Marc Andressen's now-famous timeline suggest that a real monster bubble won't hit critical mass until the start of the next decade & feature a new class of NASDAQ hotties that began as blockchain startups.

[Afrikoin]

[Karartma1]

Andreas Antonopoulos taught something to me: BTC is worth one BTC.
I don't care about these threads anymore: if bitcoin will give me freedom (financially speaking) that'll be good.
BTC gave me much more than money: to quote mastercard that is really priceless.

[americanpegasus]

I have to second that because it's in line with my own thoughts. Using Marc Andressen's now-famous timeline suggest that a real monster bubble won't hit critical mass until the start of the next decade & feature a new class of NASDAQ hotties that began as blockchain startups.

I can't seem to find a picture of this timeline.  Can you link me?

[MatTheCat]

Nice to see that there are others around here who actually 'get it'.