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niko (OP)
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February 28, 2013, 06:54:53 AM
Last edit: February 28, 2013, 07:09:50 AM by niko |
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It is often commented, quite reasonably, how present price increase is very different from the 2011 bubble because present rally is supported by much higher trade volume (among other things). So, I thought I'd have a look, and plotted historical BTC price versus cummulative trade volume on MtGox. The idea is that price fluctuations involving higher trade volumes are "stretched out" (compared to representation in linear time), indicating more powerful trends. Steep regions then represent relatively large price fluctuations over small trade volumes - and are presumably less significant. I want to know if this makes any sense to anyone else. Thanks. MtGox data curtesy of almighty bitcoincharts.com In linear price scale, comparison of time- and volume-based charts:   The same comparison as above, but in log scale (much more appropriate, as price spans more than an order of magnitude):   === My speculative take: clearly, the current rally (until today) is much less of a rally then the June 2011 madness - it's more like a slow, unstoppable steamroller in the flower garden. |
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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February 28, 2013, 07:11:46 AM |
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Thanks for the charts. But my first thought is that your labeling of the axex as "cumulative trade volume" don't make no sense. A "cumulative volume" plot would be monotonic, always-increasing. Cumulative net-volume might decrease. So I'm not sure exactly what you're plotting here.
Ooops, a little celebration-drunk. The cumulative quantity is on the x-axis (always-increasing), makes total sense. Nice charts!
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College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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niko (OP)
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February 28, 2013, 07:23:21 AM |
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Thanks for the charts. But my first thought is that your labeling of the axex as "cumulative trade volume" don't make no sense. A "cumulative volume" plot would be monotonic, always-increasing. Cumulative net-volume might decrease. So I'm not sure exactly what you're plotting here.
The x-axes represent sum of trade volumes to date. Instead of adding one day each day, I add the trade volume each day. Instead of saying "price has gone from A to B in ten days" I say "price has gone from A to B in $120,560 worth of trades". You will notice that the grand total of MtGox trades since April 2011 is worth about $300,000,000. I say that instead of saying "since April 2011, there have been 700 days". Makes sense? |
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niko (OP)
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February 28, 2013, 07:25:03 AM |
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Ooops, a little celebration-drunk. The cumulative quantity is on the x-axis (always-increasing), makes total sense. Nice charts!
 cheers! |
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bitcoinBull
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rippleFanatic
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February 28, 2013, 07:47:45 AM |
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Alright, got my head on straight (hopefully). Cumulative volume doesn't really highlight well, what it is you are trying to show. The main thing that pops out is that price is the same now as back then. What I would be much more interested to see is a plot of cumulative net volume. I suspect it would be similar to on-balance volume, and I'm curious to see how similar. Plotting the On-Balance Volume transforms some of that "stretched out" x-axis into vertical change (projected onto the linear date axis), making what you are trying to show much more clear (ie, that the OBV is much higher now than it was back in June '11). But I am curious to see how the cumulative net volume would plot (not sure if there is an indicator equal to cumulative net volume). |
College of Bucking Bulls Knowledge
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Mushoz
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February 28, 2013, 11:47:47 AM |
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Awesome graph, this rally looks much more stable than the one in 2011! Could you please make the same graph with BTC volume instead of USD volume? I'm wondering how that will make the graph look. Thanks!
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lebing
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February 28, 2013, 12:12:33 PM |
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Good job.
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Bro, do you even blockchain?
-E Voorhees
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niko (OP)
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February 28, 2013, 03:31:08 PM |
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Alright, got my head on straight (hopefully). Cumulative volume doesn't really highlight well, what it is you are trying to show. The main thing that pops out is that price is the same now as back then. What I would be much more interested to see is a plot of cumulative net volume. I suspect it would be similar to on-balance volume, and I'm curious to see how similar. Plotting the On-Balance Volume transforms some of that "stretched out" x-axis into vertical change (projected onto the linear date axis), making what you are trying to show much more clear (ie, that the OBV is much higher now than it was back in June '11). But I am curious to see how the cumulative net volume would plot (not sure if there is an indicator equal to cumulative net volume). Here it goes, with the price for comparison:  |
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niko (OP)
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February 28, 2013, 03:36:56 PM |
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Awesome graph, this rally looks much more stable than the one in 2011! Could you please make the same graph with BTC volume instead of USD volume? I'm wondering how that will make the graph look. Thanks!
It would probably look even more like the simple price-vs-time The reason I chose USD volume is because it (still) is a more "real" measure of the value in people's minds - USD volume shows how much value people are willing to risk or invest, because people still think in terms of USD. |
They're there, in their room.
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thoughtfan
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February 28, 2013, 04:04:11 PM |
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Awesome graph, this rally looks much more stable than the one in 2011! Could you please make the same graph with BTC volume instead of USD volume? I'm wondering how that will make the graph look. Thanks!
It would probably look even more like the simple price-vs-time The reason I chose USD volume is because it (still) is a more "real" measure of the value in people's minds - USD volume shows how much value people are willing to risk or invest, because people still think in terms of USD. I have often wondered why bitcoincharts.com don't have volume in dollars as default with the chart the way round it is. If it were charting USD priced in BTC (i.e. with the chart largely downwards as USD loses value relative to BTC) then the volume in BTC would make sense. I would guess it would be normal when trading stock/commodities/currencies for the volume to be measured in the currency with which one trades the stock/commodity/currency? |
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phelix
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July 05, 2013, 10:10:55 PM |
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What about an update?
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niko (OP)
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July 10, 2013, 05:12:20 PM |
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What about an update?
What are the chances? Just last week I have updated my notes, but didn't bother posting here at the time. Here it goes, in log scale, based on daily weighted values:  By the way, I heard through the grapevine that certain fractal analyses are successfully applied to price-vs-cummulative-volume data like what's shown here. Presumably, self-similar triangles are more apparent this way than in time series. If there are any experts out here, please go ahead. |
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