Which strategy is a longer term winner?Buy ASIC or buy Bitcoin now?

[twolifeinexile]

I am tempted to buy one ASIC, but right now the momentum of BTC make me wonder probably it is easier and return is higher if you just pour your fiat tokens into BTC directly.

ASIC has the good property that you are essentally averaging your cost some way, but ultimately returns depend the whole mining communities behavior and the sucess of specific vendors, so there is a lot inherent volatility in a different way.

What is the correct way to synthesize the analytical framework to make this decision?

I know people will mine for fun, and I think it is fun too, but in that case I will just buy the smalllest unit and do it at home as a learning experience, the total investment is not material.

[13Charlie]

Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com

[Fuzzy]

Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com

That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.

I'd say in the long run it's more profitable to mine, but it's a little more involved and requires more time for upkeep.

If you don't have that sort of time on your hands, I'd say just buy and hold, but if I was gonna do that, I'd personally wait for the correction.

[siggy]

Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com

That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.

I alwasy just ignore exchange rate when I'm using that calculator.  I figure it'll be a wash..  if the rate changes, your mined coins will be worth exactly the same as your bought coins..    

Ultimately, the only use for the tool is figureing out if your various guess values for Network Growth would result in a profit or a loss.

Sigg

[13Charlie]

Start with a Bitcoin mining profitability calculator. there's a good one on BitcoinX.com

That doesn't take into account the two variables that no one can predict, Network Growth and Exchange Rate, so there's no use calculating anything with today's numbers.

Of course there are tons of variables that the calculator can not account for. But you have to do some type of calculations. Otherwise you're just making decisions on investments based on complete speculation and your (or somebody else's) gut feeling.

Do the math with the calculator. Do the math with the buy and hold strategy I agree, wait for the correction. Then make your decision.

My point is, DO THE HOMEWORK  before making any investment.

[reg]

wait for the correction.

what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg

[13Charlie]

BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg

This is all absolutely true. However, you can not deny that the price of bitcoin has gone up a little too far and too fast.
While we are on a different playing field only matters as much as the players.
Conventional economic theory is based on the players AND the playing field so sat least some of it may still apply.

Wait for the correction - Might have already started, the price just dropped from $34.50 down to $32.10 in the last hour.

[Fuzzy]

what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg

If you look at the period before the last crash, the climb was of a similar gradient. Actually, it wasn't much of a crash at all, more like a glide.

The point is, its happened to the Bitcoin exchange before, so it's not impossible, and I would guess it's more likely than not.

[bam91]

Try this calculator, set the price at 15 usd since it hasnt been updated to incorporate the change to 25 coins per block. Based on the numerous assumptions that the network will hit upwards of 800TH by years end, set the difficulty to 1.04. Gives you a rough estimate.

http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php

[matauc12]

what correction? BTC may well not follow Elliot theory because that was based on well founded market relationships that do not apply to BTC. Do not forget BTC is in "another playing field" to conventional economic theory so the old rules may not apply. reg

If you look at the period before the last crash, the climb was of a similar gradient. Actually, it wasn't much of a crash at all, more like a glide.

The point is, its happened to the Bitcoin exchange before, so it's not impossible, and I would guess it's more likely than not.

You contradict yourself, a crash is not a glide. A crash is when all hell breaks loose and people sell in panic their $ won't be worth much and keep undercutting because the general sentiment is the same and there is no buyer to the point people sell for pennies on the dollar because it appears better than 0pennies on the dollar. A crash renders a currency close to untradable and is usually brought back up by re-evaluation.

I am tired of the word crash being used to loosely, saying a bear trend is a crash or a bear day, or week is like saying a Honda Civic is a fast car.

[2D]

There's no point in mining or buying when there's no shortage of morons in Newbies and Currency Exchange to take Bitcoins from LOL

[13Charlie]

I am tired of the word crash being used to loosely, saying a bear trend is a crash or a bear day, or week is like saying a Honda Civic is a fast car.

I agree, although, I have seen a few fast Honda Civics. They are usually annoyingly loud though. 

[cdog]

ASIC is worth it but only for the LOOOONNNGGG haul, like 1-2 YEARS of 24/7 mining. I think if you want short term profits, its all about either playing poker with BTC on Seals With Clubs or just buy BTC and hope they go up to $50/per coin (they will this year, after it goes down a bit).