AsicMiner shares Raffle

[anddy78]

Hello friend, you lost the opportunity of getting those cheap Asic Shares in the IPO and now you're regret?

What about a second chance of getting 50 shares for only 0.1BTC? Yes you read well, 50 ASICMINER shares, valued at near 20BTC, for only 0.1BTC.

There will be 1024 numbers, between 0 and 1023, the lucky numer will be determinated on a transaction made on April 1st, 1:00, UTC time.
The lucky number will be the last 3 bytes of SHA256(TxID) => DEC => /4
The address from what the transaction will be made is the same for deposits:
One (1) output transaction on the date and time indicated will determinate the lucky number!

Just post your lucky numbers and BTC address and send the BTC to the address indicated, before April 1st, 1:00 UTC.

Friedcat can verify that I'm holding the shares that I'm offering in this raffle, and would do the shares transfer.


Good Luck!

Edit: To secure the raffle against post edits and wrote the tickets in "stone" please send the selected number in satoshies with the ticket transaction, every satoshi will be returned to the sender when the raffle is over.
Example: If you want to bet to the number 545, send 0.10000545

Edit 2: Please, don't send from an address that you don't have total control, ie. MtGox, etc... The shares dividends will go to the sender address. Thanks

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[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

This game has a massive edge and will never fill.

[anddy78]

This game has a massive edge and will never fill.

Are you sure? Mmm, think about this:
Right now ASICMINER have near 4TH/s online, and have 400000 shares, that rounded give near 10MH/s /share, with the actual difficulty (estimated 4500000), in one day, the winner will get 0.06BTC, in just two weeks (before the difficulty change), the winner will get 0.84BTC, 8 times the initial bet. Now, when ASICMINER delivers the 12TH/s the number becomes better: Each share will be running at 30MH/s, estimating a network hashsrate of 50TH/s and a difficulty of 7000000, the winner will be getting, in that scenario, 0.11BTC daily, and 1.54BTC in two weeks (before the difficulty rise), 15 times the initial bet, that plus the initial 8 times is 23x initial bet.

If the winner decide to sell their shares, there are lots of people that are happy to pay 0.45/share = 22.5BTC, 225x initial bet.

Also you must notice that ASICMINER will delivery in the near future 50TH/s, and start to sell hardware, generating new dividends for all the shareholders.

I'm talking little numbers and short time frame here, in one year, that 50 shares will give to the winner shareholder near $2000 at the actual exchange rate. Indeed I think that selling the ASICMINER shares at the low price seeing in the auctions it's a lost in the long term.

In this raffle there is no risk, if I die, dissapear, get the wallet lost, raffle address private key hacked, the last Tx ID before the date and time related, will be used to generate the winner ticket, and friedcat will transfer the shares to the lucky number address. That's all.

Also, you can multiply your winning chances buying more than one ticket!  
Best regards.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

That's absolutely flawed logic. You don't say "Selling Silver for $134 an ounce, because that's how much I think they will be worth in six months", and then when people tell you it's a rip off you go "but are you sure? think about this, bla bla bla..". Even if silver does go to $134 an ounce, you're better off just buying it now at $29.

I hold ASICMINER shares too, but unless you plan on buying all 1024 tickets you will just get into a game that will never fill..

[DutchBrat]

That's absolutely flawed logic. You don't say "Selling Silver for $134 an ounce, because that's how much I think they will be worth in six months", and then when people tell you it's a rip off you go "but are you sure? think about this, bla bla bla..". Even if silver does go to $134 an ounce, you're better off just buying it now at $29.

I hold ASICMINER shares too, but unless you plan on buying all 1024 tickets you will just get into a game that will never fill..

Yes but since this is a lottery people will get the chance to 'buy' 50 shares for 0.10 BTC giving them an infinitely better purchase price than anyone buying at 0.40 BTC in an auction. Lotteries always have a negative expectation still people play them because of the possible reward.

And your logic is flawed if you compare ASICMINER stock to Silver. ASICMINER is a company, silver is a commodity. ASICMINER can be valued like a normal company... either by applying a p/e ratio or using a discounted cash flow model. Silver has an inherent value with a risk-premium on top. Totally different....

[anddy78]

I think that there is a small misunderstood, even if only one ticket is sold, the raffle will go on, if that number is the winner, the shares will be transfered. I'm not intended to sell all the tickets to go on with the raffle, on the date and time indicated, the lucky number will be generated, regardless the number of tickets sold.
It's a two way bet... 

[Digigami]

And if the "lucky number" which is drawn does not correspond to any of the sold tickets, you keep the shares and our bids?

[anddy78]

And if the "lucky number" which is drawn does not correspond to any of the sold tickets, you keep the shares and our bids?

That's a raffle!  
(What if I just sold 50 tickets and the lucky number correspond to one of them?  )

[MrTeal]

The EV on this game is about 5x the going rate for Asicminer shares. If you had 1BTC you wanted to spend on this to get a little less than 1% chance of winning 50 shares, you'd be better off just putting that 1BTC on SatoshiDice <3000 and get a 4.58% chance of winning the 21BTC you'd need to just go buy 50 shares.

[nexus 6]

mmmm... interesting. im not going to buy, but its a great idea

[anddy78]

Ok, I'm done with the spam, I don't need this sh*t. I don´t even know what april fools day is. Raffle ended, thread closed.