Diff thread May 24 to June 6? picks are closed!!.... prize = 0.10 btc

[philipma1957]

Okay had a winner DanDan  at 2.6 right on the money.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1468645.msg14956952#msg14956952

back to normal prize of 0.10 btc

[Mikestang]

I think we're going to see double digits this adjustment, network hash power is on the up and up.  I wonder if it will push the halving into June, wouldn't that be crazy?

I am interested in the operating expenses for these massive mines, and at what point (with current BTC value) does the block solve reward no longer cover their costs?  Looks like, for at least the 12.5 coin period, the next gen hardware will continue to keep massive-scale mining profitable.  So sad for all the little guys...

[philipma1957]

I think we're going to see double digits this adjustment, network hash power is on the up and up.  I wonder if it will push the halving into June, wouldn't that be crazy?

I am interested in the operating expenses for these massive mines, and at what point (with current BTC value) does the block solve reward no longer cover their costs?  Looks like, for at least the 12.5 coin period, the next gen hardware will continue to keep massive-scale mining profitable.  So sad for all the little guys...

yeah I was pretty sure I would run this contest until first diff in sept.  which would be about

.7 btc more in prizes not as sure I may run it until first jump in aug instead

[philipma1957]

here is a point brought up  due to the    2.60%  used by bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1468645.msg14958219#msg14958219



philipma1957 - though it doesn't matter here, it will happen eventually.  You should be clear on how you're rounding this.  Suppose the change was 2.598% which bitcoin wisdom showed as 2.60% because it only shows 2dps - who wins, the chooser of 2.50% or 2.60%?

I think it should be based on unrounded percentage increase, so 2.50% would win.

Here it doesn't matter as the increase was 2.603% but let's get this clarified please.


I did go back and look to see if I could find the discussing on this in an old thread .

  I remember we said bitcoinwisdom was the final number   which gets rid of rounding issues.

So we will use bitcoinwisdom as the tie breaker.

[Kexkey]

here is a point brought up  due to the    2.60%  used by bitcoinwisdom

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1468645.msg14958219#msg14958219



philipma1957 - though it doesn't matter here, it will happen eventually.  You should be clear on how you're rounding this.  Suppose the change was 2.598% which bitcoin wisdom showed as 2.60% because it only shows 2dps - who wins, the chooser of 2.50% or 2.60%?

I think it should be based on unrounded percentage increase, so 2.50% would win.

Here it doesn't matter as the increase was 2.603% but let's get this clarified please.


I did go back and look to see if I could find the discussing on this in an old thread .

  I remember we said bitcoinwisdom was the final number   which gets rid of rounding issues.

So we will use bitcoinwisdom as the tie breaker.

Well in fact, 2.598 is between 2.5 (incl.) and 2.6 (excl.) so I guess the range of 2.5 (incl.) - 2.6 (excl.) should go from 2.5 to 2.5999999(per...)

Hey btw congrats DanDan!!  That was a difficult difficulty guess, with so much burst in global hashrate!

[philipma1957]

Okay we will not round.

Winner will be done by devision of the two difficulties .

Not the rounded number .

[lolxxxx]

Last thread was full of suspense i was getting close but it turned out and i lost . This one will be difficult too . Can we see new rules?  Why don't we pick numbers like 3.2% to 3.4%?

[RichBC]

Well here we go again. Just shows how difficult this game is when you could have picked wrong even in the last few Hours... So very early Days with Variance playing a big part, but 8 Hours in we are at -15%. I think this time I might stop being scientific and just pluck a number out of the air. 


Rich

[albertamining]

this time, i want to participate this one

[philipma1957]

this time, i want to participate this one

Okay  I want to remind you of the rules  30 posts are needed  you have 26....  The picks do not start  for about 3 days.

So you only need to make 4 more posts you will have the thirty and can enter.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   199,312,067,531
Estimated Next Difficulty:   204,541,278,271 (+2.62%)
Adjust time:   After 1931 Blocks, About 13.0 daysWe will start when this is 1116 blocks
Hashrate(?):   1,564,121,066 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:   9:25 (27.0 seconds ago)




This makes me remember to list other rules:
 

1)you must have been on this site since April 1st 2016  you must have at least 30 posts.
2)I will check you out if you are new and decide if you can play.
3)you get one play per adjustment. which must be yours alone, in proper format and can not be changed.



4)Do not pick someone else's number If you do I will assign a number and that will not be changed
5) picks start at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   1116 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:   9:40 (2.6 minutes ago)




6) picks end at

Bitcoin Difficulty:   194,254,820,283
Estimated Next Difficulty:   210,010,283,433 (+8.11%)
Adjust time:   After 1975 Blocks, About 13.5 days   716 note the change
Hashrate(?):   1,425,436,593 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):  
1 block: 9.8 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.1 minutes
Updated:  



7)  since this is a free contest I make all decisions if there are any issues or problems.


8 ) note the change  picks start later and end late in the hope of helping a person to pick a winner.

9) format is below and this is the last contest picks

-1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>  if I hit I will roll it back in
-0.5 = Erumara        
  0.0 = adaseb
+0.7 = adib
+0.8 = ingiltere
+0.9 = usenet
+1.0 = NeuroticFish
+1.4 = ahmedjamal1998
+1.5 = lolxxxx
+1.7 = ezeminer
+2.2 = Valkir
+2.3 = fr4nkthetank
+2.7 = blindminer
+3.0 = topiOleg
+3.1 = tlhIlwI
+3.2 = Psi
+3.3 = HagssFIN     you are welcome!
+3.4 = HerbPean
+3.5 = Veves1
+3.6 = Cuidler
+3.7! Thank you!    @ Roadstress  Pleaz try to do it right >    +3.7 = Roadstress
+3.9 = flikflak
+4.0 = pusttiu
+4.1 = Amph
+4.2 = VirosaGITS
+4.5 = redhack
+4.6 = talks_cheep
+4.7 = Ankara
+4.8  = indiemax
+4.9 = ATguy
+5.0 = alh
+5.1 = FruitsBasket
+5.2 = VRobb
+5.3 = Dexter770221
+5.4 = gnaoui
+5.5 = vapourminer
+5.6 = mavericklm     I changed your pick to   +5.6 as vapourminer had +5.5
+5.7 = wlefever
+5.8 = Notlist3d
+5.9 = Chris!
+6.5 = wpt1wpt1
+6.6 = edonkey
+6.7 = zebedee
+6.8 = AM4Bitcoin
+6.9% = Mikestang
+7.6 = RichBC


Difficulty History

Date                     Difficulty                  Change   Hash Rate
May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s
May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s


Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796           18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900           8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643          10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

10) Finally we will be able to fund contest until at least the first diff jump in sept.

 unless of course the ½ing destroys mining.

[philipma1957]

last rule  we use bitcoinwisdom to determine the jump%

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate




May 24 2016   199,312,067,531   2.60%   1,426,731,353 GH/s  


 so   199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283  = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565  x 100 =  2.603408883565%    which was then rounded to 2.60%

Since  a number could be   something like 2.5999932%   bitcoinwisdom would round it up  to 2.60%.

I won't  so we can have a case  where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.  




May 11 2016   194,254,820,283   8.73%   1,390,530,167 GH/s
Apr 28 2016   178,659,257,773   -0.01%   1,278,892,782 GH/s
Apr 14 2016   178,678,307,672   7.09%   1,279,029,147 GH/s
Apr 01 2016   166,851,513,283   0.82%   1,194,369,655 GH/s
Mar 18 2016   165,496,835,118   4.46%   1,184,672,491 GH/s
Mar 04 2016   158,427,203,767   -3.10%   1,134,066,098 GH/s
Feb 19 2016   163,491,654,909   13.44%   1,170,318,852 GH/s
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s
Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,9

[sebbysebbybinx]

I do not have 30 posts, but I am an active member of the Bitcoin community and would very much enjoy playing the game.
Is there a way I can get a pass so I don't have to spam 30 posts?

Evidence: I am creator of the Bitcoin engagement ring:
http://www.engadget.com/2015/05/21/a-bitcoin-engagement-ring/
http://imgur.com/kX9i80Q

I also am involved in more academic bitcoin projects:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bx3C8uU5BbrGM3lrMjlWNUdMREU

Thanks,
SebbySebbyBinx

[notlist3d]

Were starting off decent on BTC value it's gone up to 450 on coinbase.   So hopefully we can go higher this period.  Last period we ended up in 440's most of the time it seemed.

Still early off but bitwisdom:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    199,312,067,531
Estimated Next Difficulty:    208,629,846,397 (+4.67%)
Adjust time:    After 1878 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,536,586,477 GH/s

Hopefully we can stay under 5 percent is the number I like to be under.   Last time was pretty good at 2.6.

[Mikestang]

I do not have 30 posts, but I am an active member of the Bitcoin community and would very much enjoy playing the game.
Is there a way I can get a pass so I don't have to spam 30 posts?

Rules are rules for a reason, if he made an exception for you (who, by the way, provided no evidence of who you are, just some links; hey, I own the whitehouse, evidence: https://www.whitehouse.gov/) then he would have to make an exception for everyone.  If you are active then you should have no problem qualifying by the next round.

[philipma1957]

I do not have 30 posts, but I am an active member of the Bitcoin community and would very much enjoy playing the game.
Is there a way I can get a pass so I don't have to spam 30 posts?

Evidence: I am creator of the Bitcoin engagement ring:
http://www.engadget.com/2015/05/21/a-bitcoin-engagement-ring/
http://imgur.com/kX9i80Q

I also am involved in more academic bitcoin projects:
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0Bx3C8uU5BbrGM3lrMjlWNUdMREU

Thanks,
SebbySebbyBinx

Okay here is the deal this is a giveaway  totally free game.

When we had a large prize of 0.30 btc I had 3 newbies post three consecutive picks  with an hour left to pick  giving them a real edge if they were the same person.

I told them I would let their picks stand if they would pm real proof of whom they are.  They did not and the 2 month 30 good post rule was created.

So we just had a big prize 0.40 btc and we had 1 or 2 new people try to enter.  Just a few picks above one of the new people asked me a second time for this contest.  I am allowing him via time and if he makes a few more posts he has 26 I will allow him. To enter this contest.

You have been around a long time and you don't post much so I don't mind newer members like you joining but I need to vet you .  Let me look closer at your posts. before I decide.

Best regards phil

okay simple question  do you have any of your btc rings available?


if you do put one on your pinky finger     and photo it right under this:






Place hand with ring on pinky    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>









That would prove you are the ring maker which would work for me.

I would wave the 30 post rule in this case.


best regards Phil

[Kexkey]

so   199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283  = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565  x 100 =  2.603408883565%    which was then rounded to 2.60%

Since  a number could be   something like 2.5999932%   bitcoinwisdom would round it up  to 2.60%.

I won't  so we can have a case  where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.  

Yeah I like it!  The matheux (mather?  mathor?  methematicioux?) in me likes that kind of precision. 

[philipma1957]

so   199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283  = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565  x 100 =  2.603408883565%    which was then rounded to 2.60%

Since  a number could be   something like 2.5999932%   bitcoinwisdom would round it up  to 2.60%.

I won't  so we can have a case  where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.  

Yeah I like it!  The matheux (mather?  mathor?  methematicioux?) in me likes that kind of precision.  

Mathematician

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematician


I think you were looking for this.

Speaking of math lets do a real world number.


https://blockchain.info/

413447 (Main Chain)   2016-05-26 02:00:12  we are here right now

 


413282 (Main Chain)   2016-05-24 21:23:04  this was first one of this jump

so 166 blocks made


1 day         = 144 blocks
4 hours      =   24 blocks
40 minutes =    4  blocks

adds to   172  so 166/172-1 =  (-3.488372093023%)

while bitcoinwisdom using  part of last jump is very much higher


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficultyBitcoin Difficulty:   199,312,067,531


Estimated Next Difficulty:   209,085,948,934 (+4.90%)  way high compared to real time.

Adjust time:   After 1849 Blocks, About 12.1 days  We start at 1116 blocks


Hashrate(?):   1,523,581,927 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.2 minutes
6 blocks: 56.5 minutes
Updated:   22:5 (3.2 minutes ago)

One thing I think I have learned is asic builders simply play with difficulty numbers ramping  up  100 to 300 ph at a time

[Kexkey]

so   199,312,067,531 / 194,254,820,283  = 1.02603408883565 - 1 = .02603408883565  x 100 =  2.603408883565%    which was then rounded to 2.60%

Since  a number could be   something like 2.5999932%   bitcoinwisdom would round it up  to 2.60%.

I won't  so we can have a case  where the winner will not match the rounded number posted by bitcoinwisdom.  

Yeah I like it!  The matheux (mather?  mathor?  methematicioux?) in me likes that kind of precision.  

Mathematician

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematician


I think you were looking for this.

LOL thanks!  In french we slang it as matheux (instead of mathématicien) so I thought there was a urban word like that in english. 

Anyway, let's hope our friends at Bitmain, Bitfurry, KnC and whoever, give us a break with their new generation miners for at least a few weeks before firing everything up and giving us headaches with our not-much-lucrative-anymore-mining.

I don't want a jump over 3% guys, ok?   

[HerbPean]

adds to   172  so 166/172-1 =  (-3.488372093023%)

12 Digits after the decimal

[philipma1957]

adds to   172  so 166/172-1 =  (-3.488372093023%)

12 Digits after the decimal

The calculator on the Mac mini rounds to 12 digits.

And I know that there is a tiny chance of a number like

2.5999999999999999 which  would round to 2.60. Since my claculator only goes to 12 digits .

If indeed that happens  I will pay both Picks since the odds would be more then 1 billion to one.

At kexkey some may earn the,nickname "numbers". Some have called me Phillie numbers  as I am quick with math.

Sometimes you can refer to a person as your "numbers" guy. A slang that means you rely on that person for math choices because he is,good with numbers.