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Author Topic: The Chinese Mining Cartel  (Read 1304 times)
talks_cheep
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May 26, 2016, 06:00:05 PM
 #1

Some of the forum members are thinking this, but I believe I am the first to put it in writing on a public forum.

The Chinese Mining Cartel is real and is an existential threat to Bitcoin.

Who are the members of this cartel? They include all the major mining farms, mining gear manufactures and traders. Some of the members are vertically integrated, I e, they manufacture mining hardware, operate mining farms and actively engage in speculative trades.

What does the cartel have to do with the Bitcoin price?

TCMC wields an enormous amount of influence over the price. We know the members meet publicly, and I suspect they also meet privately. Bitcoin price is definitely one of the major topics they hold discussions on. I suspect they strategize how to maximize the profit,

Why is this bad for Bitcoin?

History is full of examples on what happens when leaders of an industry collude to corner the market and control the price. Only they will profit and everyone else loses.

Will history repeat itself? Are we too stupid or weak to let them? Have we forgotten the lessons of history?

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adaseb
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May 26, 2016, 08:32:16 PM
 #2

I think you are watching too many movies.






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alh
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May 26, 2016, 08:39:14 PM
 #3

.......

Why is this bad for Bitcoin?

History is full of examples on what happens when leaders of an industry collude to corner the market and control the price. Only they will profit and everyone else loses.

Will history repeat itself? Are we too stupid or weak to let them? Have we forgotten the lessons of history?

So what is your proposed response by anybody? One of the long vaunted virtues of Bitcoin is it's "lack of central control" and it's long term goal of being a "currency". The "industry" you mention is unlike any other that I am familiar with.

What would this cartel think to do to manipulate Bitcoin? Presumably you are thinking of Bitcoin as an asset. It doesn't however completely match the model , since it doesn't have any alternative use, like a precious metal might. Since it only exists as ones and zeros, and it's value exists only to the extent that folks believe it does, it's hard to see exactly what folks would would try and do to their advantage.

I will also add that in the grand scheme of economics, Bitcoin is a fairly small blip. BTC could could go to zero tomorrow, and that would be about the same impact as the one bad JP Morgan trade last year for 6 Billion dollars. 99% of the population has essentially zero interest in BTC, and wouldn't care if it went "poof" overnight.

I just can't get excited about a "BTC Cartel".
philipma1957
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May 26, 2016, 08:49:35 PM
 #4

So what else is new.  Yeah  it is now in the hands of very few people  gone is the day when I had 20gh in gpus  using 6kwatts and I had 1/10 of 1 % of the entire network in my house!

let me check my math  20gh x 1000 =  20th   yeah   I actually was running 1/1000 of the entire world network in my garage  .


lets see what I need to do that now.   network = 1400ph  so I would need to run 1.4ph from my garage how many s-7s would that be  3 = 13.1th

30 = 131 th

 300 = 1310 th


so 320 s-7's  or  1.4kwatts x   320 =  448 kwatts  vs 6 kwatts.

I do not think I can run the 1/1000 of the worlds  btc network anymore.


Now even if I step up and grab 5 s-9's   that would only be 70th not much

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
hugs1BTC
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May 30, 2016, 08:19:20 AM
 #5

Some of the forum members are thinking this, but I believe I am the first to put it in writing on a public forum.

The Chinese Mining Cartel is real and is an existential threat to Bitcoin.

Who are the members of this cartel? They include all the major mining farms, mining gear manufactures and traders. Some of the members are vertically integrated, I e, they manufacture mining hardware, operate mining farms and actively engage in speculative trades.

What does the cartel have to do with the Bitcoin price?

TCMC wields an enormous amount of influence over the price. We know the members meet publicly, and I suspect they also meet privately. Bitcoin price is definitely one of the major topics they hold discussions on. I suspect they strategize how to maximize the profit,

Why is this bad for Bitcoin?

History is full of examples on what happens when leaders of an industry collude to corner the market and control the price. Only they will profit and everyone else loses.

Will history repeat itself? Are we too stupid or weak to let them? Have we forgotten the lessons of history?

China has cheap electricity and wages are lower, that's why most miners are there...am I wrong?
philipma1957
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May 30, 2016, 02:07:42 PM
 #6

Some of the forum members are thinking this, but I believe I am the first to put it in writing on a public forum.

The Chinese Mining Cartel is real and is an existential threat to Bitcoin.

Who are the members of this cartel? They include all the major mining farms, mining gear manufactures and traders. Some of the members are vertically integrated, I e, they manufacture mining hardware, operate mining farms and actively engage in speculative trades.

What does the cartel have to do with the Bitcoin price?

TCMC wields an enormous amount of influence over the price. We know the members meet publicly, and I suspect they also meet privately. Bitcoin price is definitely one of the major topics they hold discussions on. I suspect they strategize how to maximize the profit,

Why is this bad for Bitcoin?

History is full of examples on what happens when leaders of an industry collude to corner the market and control the price. Only they will profit and everyone else loses.

Will history repeat itself? Are we too stupid or weak to let them? Have we forgotten the lessons of history?

China has cheap electricity and wages are lower, that's why most miners are there...am I wrong?

Missing the fact that they build the miners in China.  This saves shipping , but the rest is right.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
d57heinz
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May 30, 2016, 05:37:06 PM
 #7

Im waiting for the day when everyone realizes that you cannot have a decentralized "anything" unless we all have access to the same resources.  This experiment will never be decentralized no matter how much we want to will it so..   Its only a matter of time b 4 china runs all the networks of crypto coins since they have the cheapest resources of the entire globe.  Chew on that for a while.

Best Regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
philipma1957
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May 30, 2016, 07:39:14 PM
 #8

Im waiting for the day when everyone realizes that you cannot have a decentralized "anything" unless we all have access to the same resources.  This experiment will never be decentralized no matter how much we want to will it so..   Its only a matter of time b 4 china runs all the networks of crypto coins since they have the cheapest resources of the entire globe.  Chew on that for a while.

Best Regards
d57heinz

They will be king of asics.  I can not see them failing to keep the lead in asics.

GPU mining is complex since gpus are in demand for many tasks. I can't see them doing a full takeover in gpu mining.

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
notlist3d
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May 30, 2016, 11:14:56 PM
 #9

Im waiting for the day when everyone realizes that you cannot have a decentralized "anything" unless we all have access to the same resources.  This experiment will never be decentralized no matter how much we want to will it so..   Its only a matter of time b 4 china runs all the networks of crypto coins since they have the cheapest resources of the entire globe.  Chew on that for a while.

Best Regards
d57heinz

They will be king of asics.  I can not see them failing to keep the lead in asics.

GPU mining is complex since gpus are in demand for many tasks. I can't see them doing a full takeover in gpu mining.

If there is enough money they will follow.  I agree they will remain asic kings for most part, just hard to beat the electricity pricce.    But I also think some will jump to GPU aswell coindesk has a article showing one decent sized GPU mine - http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miners-ethereum/

So I do think we will see some expansion of GPU mining for ether in China and other places asics currently are at.  Ether just keeps going up in difficulty - https://etherscan.io/charts/difficulty
philipma1957
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May 30, 2016, 11:20:38 PM
 #10

Im waiting for the day when everyone realizes that you cannot have a decentralized "anything" unless we all have access to the same resources.  This experiment will never be decentralized no matter how much we want to will it so..   Its only a matter of time b 4 china runs all the networks of crypto coins since they have the cheapest resources of the entire globe.  Chew on that for a while.

Best Regards
d57heinz

They will be king of asics.  I can not see them failing to keep the lead in asics.

GPU mining is complex since gpus are in demand for many tasks. I can't see them doing a full takeover in gpu mining.

If there is enough money they will follow.  I agree they will remain asic kings for most part, just hard to beat the electricity pricce.    But I also think some will jump to GPU aswell coindesk has a article showing one decent sized GPU mine - http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-miners-ethereum/

So I do think we will see some expansion of GPU mining for ether in China and other places asics currently are at.  Ether just keeps going up in difficulty - https://etherscan.io/charts/difficulty

but since they are not builder/farmer like asic miners they won't quite get to 75% of all gpus being in china mining eth coin.. they also have the treat of the eth coin developers moving to  pos vs pow.   but I do agree they will end up with some large farms

I see BTC as the super highway and alt coins as taxis and trucks needed to move transactions.
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May 31, 2016, 06:09:30 PM
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Will be interesting to see what happens after the halving occurs. Chinese electricity is the cheapest after all.

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notlist3d
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May 31, 2016, 09:05:30 PM
 #12

Will be interesting to see what happens after the halving occurs. Chinese electricity is the cheapest after all.
Chiness electricity is the cheapest? how much in usd per kwh?

I believe hes talking about the "mega mines".  It is suspected they get electricity for a very good price, but again it's speculation.   What has been speculated is a few cents.... but again take it as speculation.  Most commercial mines are privately owned so we will never know for sure on price.

But yes many have went to China due to low price, and stable electricity grid.  Here is one example - https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=969823.0 . In that mining board you will find others.
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May 31, 2016, 10:27:41 PM
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Will be interesting to see what happens after the halving occurs. Chinese electricity is the cheapest after all.
Chiness electricity is the cheapest? how much in usd per kwh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_pricing from https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=333720.0 for a ballpark but who really knows.....
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June 01, 2016, 06:51:46 AM
 #14

If you're given special privileges for industry or tech in the rights zones the KWH can be under 0.01 USD - nothing in the world can compete with that pricing.
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June 01, 2016, 07:00:18 AM
 #15

Add in the fact that all the mining hardware is produced there (everything from the power supplies to the cable ties to the ethernet cables) and China's advantage is just ridiculous.
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June 01, 2016, 02:29:36 PM
 #16

only way to equalize mining will be to put some kind of global tax on china for the pollution.  I find it funny that the idea that if the manufacturing happens in china thus polluting their air that it doesnt eventually circle the globe   We all breathe the same air.  if this experiment is ever to work for asics then we all have to be on a level playing field.

as far as gpu goes.. Antpool just opened up eth mining on their pool.  So yea id say they are going to move into that space aswell.  And even when it goes pos all they would have to do is use some of the thousands of btc they mined for damn near free to buy enough to stake at an alarming rate..  They have too many advantages over the rest of the world for this to be feasible at this time.. Id Take what you can get now but plan for total failure.

Best Regards
d57heinz

As in nature, all is ebb and tide, all is wave motion, so it seems that in all branches of industry, alternating currents - electric wave motion - will have the sway. ~Nikola Tesla~
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