New video: Historical Prices Of House, Car, Oil, Bacon, Chocolate, Soup, ...

[Marc De Mesel]

Made new video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIO06yLUiYI


Summary: Eventhough many agricultural commodities have gone up on average only around 3% (sugar, soybeans, cacoa, milk, ...) since 1972, many others have gone up more than 5% per year, bringing the average at 5% real inflation per year. This means the USD lost on average 5% per year in purchasing power. Here a list of items I found that went up around 5% or more:






From 1971 to 2015 the price of real estate has gone up on average 5.78% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of a new Corvette car has gone up on average 5.18% per year.

From 1972 to 2015 the price of Bacon has gone up on average 4.82% per year.
From 2004 to 2015 the price of a Mc Donald's Big Mac hamburger has gone up on average 3.94% per year.
From 1970 to 2013 the price of a Hershey chocolate bar has gone up on average 5.20% per year.
From 2004 to 2013 the price of Nabisco's Oreo cookies has gone up on average 6.19% per year.
From 2000 to 2013 the price of Kellogg's Corn Flakes has gone up on average 5.08% per year.
From 2002 to 2013 the price of Coca Cola has gone up on average 6.55% per year.
From 1970 to 2012 the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup has gone up on average 3.96% per year.

From 1971 to 2015 the price of oil has gone up on average 5.48% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of coal has gone up on average 4.20% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of natural gas has gone up on average 5.31% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of gold has gone up on average 7.86% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of silver has gone up on average 9.35% per year.
From 1971 to 2015 the price of stocks have gone up on average 7.05% per year.





Real Estate (Median Sales Prices of New Homes Sold in United States, http://www.census.gov/const/uspricemon.pdf)
Dec 1971 = $25.300
Dec 2015 = $299.000
Inflation: 5.78%


New Corvette:
End 1971 = $5,472
End 2015 = $50,500
Inflation: 5.18%


Bacon  (Source: http://cpi.mooseroots.com/stories/13188/price-of-bacon-rise-fall-pork-pig-stock-cpi#Intro)
1940: $0.23
1949: $0.55
1950: $0.52
1959: $0.55
1960: $0.54
1969: $0.76
1970: $0.82
1971: $0.69
1972: $0.84
1979: $1.48
1980: $1.43
1989: $1.87
1990: $2.21
1999: $2.95
2000: $3.46
2007: $4.31
2009: $4.21
2010: $4.53
2015: $5.48
Inflation 1972-2015 (44 years):  4.82%


Mc Donalds Big Mac hamburger in the U.S. for years 2004 to 2012 according The Economist (Source: http://big-mac-index.findthedata.com/)
1986: $1.60
1987: $1.60
1988: $2.39
1989: $2.02
1990: $2.20
1991: $2.25
1992: $2.19
1993: $2.28
1994: $2.30
1995: $2.32
1996: $2.36
1997: $2.42
1998: $2.56
1999: $2.43
2000: $2.51
2001: $2.54
2002: $2.49
2003: $2.71
2004: $2.90
2005: $3.06, 5.5%
2006: $3.10, 1.3%
2007: $3.22, 3.9%
2008: $3.41, 5.9%
2009: $3.57, 4.7%
2010: $3.73, 4.5%
2011: $4.07, 9.1%
2012: $4.45, 9.3%
End 2015: $4.90
Inflation since 1986: 3.94%


Hershey Chocolate Bar Index (Source: http://www.foodtimeline.org)
[1908] 9/16 oz.....2 cents (=0.56 oz, converted to 1.55 oz = 5.53 cents)
[1918] 16/16 oz.....3 cents
[1920] 9/16 oz.....3 cents
[1921] 1 oz.....5 cents
[1924] 1 3/8 oz.....5 cents
[1930] 2 oz.....5 cents
[1933] 1 7/8 oz.....5 cents
[1936] 1 1/2 oz.....5 cents
[1937] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents
[1938] 1 3/8 oz.....5 cents
[1939] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents
[1941] 1 1/4 oz.....5 cents
[1944] 1 5/8 oz.....5 cents
[1946] 1 1/2 oz.....5 cents
[1947] 1 oz.....5 cents
[1954] 7/8 oz.....5 cents
[1955] 1 oz.....5 cents
[1958] 7/8 oz.....5 cents
[1960] 1 oz.....5 cents
[1963] 7/8 oz......5 cents
[1965] 1 oz.....5 cents
[1966] 7/8 oz.....5 cents
[1968] 3/4 oz.....5 cents
[1969] 1 1/2 oz.....10 cents
[1970] 1 3/8 oz.....10 cents (=1.375 oz, converted to 1.55 oz = 11.27 cents)
[1973] 1.26 oz......10 cents
[1974] 1.4 oz.....15 cents
[1975*] 1.05 oz.....15 cents
[1976] 1.2 oz.....15 cents
[1977] 1.2 oz......20 cents
[1978] 1.2 oz.....25 cents
[1980] 1.05 oz.....25 cents
[1982] 1.45 oz.....30 cents
[1983] 1.45 oz.....35 cents
[1986] 1.45 oz.....40 cents
[1986] 1.65 oz.....40 cents
[1991] .45
"Last year, candy makers raised the price of candy bars 5 cents, to an average of 45 cents. The previous hike was in 1986."
---M&Ms Plans to Nickel and Dime the Competition, New York Newsday, April 8, 1992 (p. 41) [NOTE: product weight not referenced in this article]
[1995] .50
1.55 oz., Value of a Dollar: Prices and Incomes in the United States 1860-2009, Scott Derks [Grey House Publishing:Millerton NY] 2009 (p. 641)
[2003] .80
1.55 oz Hershey Bar purchased at Quik (privately owned convenience store), Randolph NJ...80 cents
[2007] $0.84/1.55 oz (= converted from $0.79/1.45 oz)
[2008] $0.59/1.55 oz
[2009] $1.10/1.55 oz
[2010] $0.95/1.55 oz
[2011] $0.99/1.55 oz
[2013] $0.99/1.55 oz
From 1908 to 2013 the price of a Hershey chocolate bar has gone up on average 2.79% per year.
From 1970 to 2013 the price of a Hershey chocolate bar has gone up on average 5.20% per year.
From 2003 to 2013 the price of a Hershey chocolate bar has gone up on average 2.20% per year.


Nabisco's Oreo cookies (Source: http://www.foodtimeline.org)
[2004] $3.36/18 oz (= converted from $2.99/lb)
[2008] $4.29/18 oz
[2012] $5.33/18 oz (= converted from $4.59/15.5 oz)
[2013] $5.77/18 oz (= converted from $4.59/14.3 oz)
From 2004 to 2013 the price of Nabisco's Oreo cookies has gone up on average 6.19% per year.


Kellogg's Corn Flakes (Source: http://www.foodtimeline.org)
[2000] $1.99/12 oz (= converted from $2.99/18oz)
[2004] $2.99/12 oz
[2008] $2.99/12 oz
[2011] $3.79/12 oz
[2012] $3.79/12 oz
[2013] $3.79/12 oz
From 2000 to 2013 the price of Kellogg's Corn Flakes has gone up on average 5.08% per year.


Coca Cola and Pepsi (Source: http://www.foodtimeline.org)
[2002] $0.99/2 litre bottle (67.6 oz)
[2005] $1.09/2 litre bottle (67.6 oz)
[2011] $1.89/2 litre bottle (67.6 oz)
[2012] $1.89/2 litre bottle (67.6 oz)
[2013] $1.99/2 litre bottle (67.6 oz)
From 2002 to 2013 the price of Coca Cola has gone up on average 6.55% per year.


Campbell's Condensed Tomato Soup  (10.5-ounce can, data collected in Indiana. Each data point was averaged across at least 3 grocery stores.)  (Source: http://www.familyfriendsfirearms.com/forum/showpost.php?s=b6384a279dfffa3d7bcc9aa33f0ac4d0&p=1268713&postcount=1)
1950: 10 cents
1960: 15 cents
1970: 17 cents
1980: 21 cents
1990: 33 cents
2007: 39 cents
2008: 40 cents
2009: 45 cents
2010: 51 cents
2011: 60 cents (11-28-2011)
2012: 87 cents (09-21-2012)
From 1950 to 2012 the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup has gone up on average 3.55% per year.
From 1970 to 2012 the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup has gone up on average 3.96% per year.
From 2007 to 2012 the price of Campbell's Tomato Soup has gone up on average 17.40% per year.


Oil
End 1971 = $3.56 per barrel
End 2015 = $37.28 per barrel
Inflation: 5.48% per year


Coal (http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb0709)
1971 =   $7.13 per short ton
2015 = $43.50 per short ton
Prise rise: 4.20% per year


Natural Gas (Residential Sector) (http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/annual/showtext.cfm?t=ptb0608)
1971 =  $1.15 per Thousand Cubic Feet
2015 = $10.38 per Thousand Cubic Feet
Prise rise: 5.31% per year


Gold
End 1971 = $38 / ounce
End 2015 = $1060 / ounce
Inflation: 7.86%


Silver
End 1971 = $0.27 / ounce
End 2015 = $13.82 / ounce
Inflation: 9.35%


Stocks (SP500)
End 1971 = 102.09
End 2015 = 2043
Inflation: 7.05%



"It is not what the man of science believes that distinguishes him, but how and why he believes it. His beliefs are tentative, not dogmatic; they are based on evidence, not on authority or intuition."� - Bertrand Russell

[1714944482]

1714944482

[Marc De Mesel]

No replies 

You know, inflation studies always lack one thing: price data.

Indeed, not a single inflation study that I know off publishes the price data they base their conclusions on.


Not Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI), nor shadowstats, nor Billion Prices Project, nor Peter Schiff's Inflation Study.

Only mine does.

[Monnt]

Shows how fucked up the current economy is. The minimum/average wage isnt really going up as fast as the price of goods. Soon they will be out of our reach.

[Marc De Mesel]

Shows how fucked up the current economy is. The minimum/average wage isnt really going up as fast as the price of goods. Soon they will be out of our reach.

Thanks man


There is a big difference between minimum wage and avg wage.

Minimum wage is an obligation of the state, backed by violence, to pay every employee you have minimum x amount. This causes unemployment as you can't employ any longer someone you need to pay $12 but is only offering $8 of value.

Real inflation going up faster than minimum wage is therefore a good thing as more people get employed the lower the real minimum wage is.


Average wage not going up as fast as real inflation of 5% is a big problem though, forcing people to go out work with 2 now to make the same 1 person made at the time. This has been a trend for many decades, since the 1970's. Partly due to rising inflation/money printing but also more people joining the workforce, women especially, raising the supply of work, but due to taxes on work continuing to be high, and competition/outsourcing, demand for workers has not been going up as fast, lowering the prices for labor.


Luckily productivity increases, technology and outsourcing have allowed us to buy a lot more with a lot less money as well. The smartphone for example replaces the cost of a telephone, computer, camera, navigation, agenda for many people for a fraction of the cost.

And if we succeed with bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies people will also get much better money in the future, allowing to save and spend money, for a fraction of cost of current money and banking solutions.  

[Marc De Mesel]

Bump for love 

[Mometaskers]

I don't think this is just a problem in America. Here in the Philippines commodities increase in price almost yearly but the minimum wage trails far behind. In fact there many criticizing the current minimum wage, that it can't even sustain a family of 3.   Sadly we really can't rely on the government to look after us. Not even saving up money in the bank (for those who can even afford it) is enough. This why some of us here are looking into cryptocurrencies. Sure the price can go through dramatic falls but compared to fiat the increase is large enough that you can say you "profited" from the coin you bought.

[Marc De Mesel]

I don't think this is just a problem in America. Here in the Philippines commodities increase in price almost yearly but the minimum wage trails far behind. In fact there many criticizing the current minimum wage, that it can't even sustain a family of 3.   Sadly we really can't rely on the government to look after us. Not even saving up money in the bank (for those who can even afford it) is enough. This why some of us here are looking into cryptocurrencies. Sure the price can go through dramatic falls but compared to fiat the increase is large enough that you can say you "profited" from the coin you bought.

Very true man, thanks for your response.

[Maskedman]

What is even worst is when this inflation is encouraged by the European Central Banks, whom seeks a "reasonable" inflation of 2% a year !

[darthmaul]

It is good to know somebody is taking inflation studies so seriously. I am amazed to know the prices has gone upto 5% which in turn has led to heavy duties by government. But the minimum wages are not moving up that fast. In my country the situation more difficult as there is no minimum wage in my country. You have to work as per the employers rules and regulation. And moreover government still takes taxes from us that makes it more hard. So earning here is like slowest job while spending is like as fast loosing water from the palm. Dam that is ridiculous situation since 1971 to 2017 by today. Never thought of it that way. 

[Marc De Mesel]

Bump for love bitches 

[innocent93]

Very interesting your post regarding the evolution of prices in a period of time. I didn't see the economy in a piece of bacon. 10x for the post

[spazzdla]

Shows how fucked up the current economy is. The minimum/average wage isnt really going up as fast as the price of goods. Soon they will be out of our reach.

The median wage has not moved in 30 years.. soo.. :S..

[Marc De Mesel]

Very interesting your post regarding the evolution of prices in a period of time. I didn't see the economy in a piece of bacon. 10x for the post

Thanks so  much man!!! 

[Marc De Mesel]

Every year I'm going to bump this for love 

Check the video on it if you haven't already:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIO06yLUiYI


Also just did new video with different way to estimate inflation, using amount of dollars printed by Fed Reserve minus yearly economic growth of 2%, leads to inflation of not 5 but 6% that prices go up per year, also credible:

Historical Returns Since 1928 - Stocks, Gold, Inflation & Permanent Portfolio
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbkDEhFzG8o&t