Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 06:36:53 AM Last edit: May 31, 2016, 09:37:28 AM by Winner780 |
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Hello, I`m Jack, a full-time sportsbetter since January. I`ve been betting for a long time, and in the past months I have perfected my strategy that I can now make enough profits to do it as a full time job since January. I have worked very hard on my strategy with my mathematician brother, we have backtested tens of thousands of games over various sports, mixed in with my experience, we were able to find an edge by analyzing all those games and applying our special filter on it. There is little advantage left in betting since the bookies have their own research teams as well, but we are still able to outperform them by a good margin. Now let me show my strategy here, I will give out free and premium tips. Cheers!
Total ROI: 491% Expectancy: +4.91 Winrate: 79.4872% Tips: 39
Proof:(Posts are not edited to preserve authenticity, feel free to use archive.is to archive the data) ROUND 1: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1488132.msg15005312#msg15005312ROUND 2,3,4: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1488132.msg15016217#msg15016217ROUND 5,6: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1488132.msg15027809#msg15027809
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 06:49:56 AM |
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Tennis for today Legend: Bolded name is my picked winner, after the '@' symbol is the odds 09:00 A Zverev v D Thiem 2016 French Open @ 1.26 09:00 Parmentier v Bacsinszky 2016 French Open @ 1.24 09:00 SuÁrez Navarro v Cibulkova 2016 French Open @ 1.60 10:00 Gasparyan/Kuznetsova v Jurak/Konjuh 2016 French Open @ 1.28 11:00 Carreno Busta/Marrero v Stepanek/Zimonjic 2016 French Open @ 1.41 11:00 D Ferrer v Fel Lopez 2016 French Open @ 1.17 11:00 Herbert/Mahut v Kudla/Peralta 2016 French Open @ 1.20 13:00 Butorac/Lipsky v Kubot/Peya 2016 French Open @ 1.79 13:00 Gulbis v Tsonga 2016 French Open @ 1.49 15:00 Bertens v Kasatkina 2016 French Open @ 1.55 16:00 Maria/Mahut v Kudryavtseva/Bopanna 2016 French Open @ 1.55
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 07:12:09 AM |
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Football for today Legend: Bolded name is my picked winner, after the '@' symbol is the odds. Attention, the bet type is no draw bet, so there is a binary outcome, in an event of draw the bets are refunded. 09:00 Nagasaki v Jef Utd Chiba J2 League @ 1.71 09:30 C-Osaka v Okayama J2 League @ 1.49 09:45 Atletico Madrid (W) v Ath Bilbao (W) Primera Division (W) @ 1.53 13:00 KTP v Jaro Ykkonen @ 1.6 13:00 Roskilde v Skive Danish Division 1 @ 1.69 14:00 AIK v Orebro Allsvenskan @ 1.43 14:00 Melfi v Martina Franca Lega Pro @ 1.42 16:00 Rosenborg v Molde Tippeligaen @ 1.33
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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Jacob70
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Enjin Coin - Smart Cryptocurrency for Gaming.
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May 28, 2016, 12:07:49 PM |
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Interesting thread, i will follow your results, hopefully it will be very promising, i like how simple format you give out your tips. Bookmarked thread, let's see where it goes wish you good luck! (PS: I`m looking for very good tipsters i want to startup a betting investment business)
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codehtcmail
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Tryig to survive in this harsh world
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May 28, 2016, 12:13:09 PM |
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What do you recommend, betting on single matches or a combined bet for your predictions ?
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 12:21:07 PM |
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Interesting thread, i will follow your results, hopefully it will be very promising, i like how simple format you give out your tips. Bookmarked thread, let's see where it goes wish you good luck! (PS: I`m looking for very good tipsters i want to startup a betting investment business) Thank you, just follow the thread and see the results for yourself What do you recommend, betting on single matches or a combined bet for your predictions ?
Individual bets of course. Parlays always reduce the expectancy, so bet on single matches always.
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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udet4food
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May 28, 2016, 12:22:18 PM |
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It seems that you mostly bet on favourites. How about some tips with higher odds? Also, are you betting on these events yourself? I would like to see the profit of someone betting only on favourites (if you continue to only tip low-odd bets).
Though like said above, keep the simple format. It's really easy to see your tips that way.
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Rubberduckie
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May 28, 2016, 12:23:43 PM |
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appreciate the thread but seems like way to much action and your risking isnt worth the reward with all that chalk
every bet is high odds.
So sure you win/loss should be high but when those big favorites lose you lose alot.
good luck though and will keep an eye out if you start betting some dogs
cheers
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Wendigo
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May 28, 2016, 12:28:53 PM |
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Just a quick heads up since you are new here. No one cares about profit, tips and winrate percentages just units won and lost because that's the most accurate statistic which will show if you are a good tipster or not. You should point out how much 1 unit of yours is worth as in 1 unit=1mbtc or 1 unit = 10mbtc etc. As you said you have developed a mathematical system for analyzing the matches it wouldn't be too hard to keep such a statistic right? Also it would be great if you could post your actual bet slip links to the websites where you are wagering at so people could check out your bets and follow you unless you prefer air betting only Welcome to the forum and good luck with your picks.
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 12:30:30 PM |
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It seems that you mostly bet on favourites. How about some tips with higher odds? Also, are you betting on these events yourself? I would like to see the profit of someone betting only on favourites (if you continue to only tip low-odd bets).
Though like said above, keep the simple format. It's really easy to see your tips that way.
We rarely bet on high odds, because small odd games have lower variance, so it's easier to manage risk and set more appropriate betsizes. High odds are usually a longshot and the house edge is usually much higher. For example let's say game A: Player 1 @ 1.01 odds Player 2 @ 20 odds The 1.01 would statistically have higher expectancy even if you bet with a blindfold, and the 20 odds one will always have high house edge. You would expect 5% winrate there, but usually it's much lower about 1-2%. Bookies rarely give you higher than 20 odds so in these cases if you bet on Player 2 they steal 3% more winrate from you without you even noticing it. Bookies are very shady, so watch out!
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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maku
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May 28, 2016, 12:31:52 PM |
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Nice to see another tipster here. The more the merrier as they say. It is good that Op realize that he first have to build his reputation and then he could offer 'premium tips'. I usually consider tipster valid and serious after I see more than 100-150 tips from him. Let's wait and see how good Op is. Good luck.
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 28, 2016, 12:37:59 PM |
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Just a quick heads up since you are new here. No one cares about profit, tips and winrate percentages just units won and lost because that's the most accurate statistic which will show if you are a good tipster or not. You should point out how much 1 unit of yours is worth as in 1 unit=1mbtc or 1 unit = 10mbtc etc. As you said you have developed a mathematical system for analyzing the matches it wouldn't be too hard to keep such a statistic right? Also it would be great if you could post your actual bet slip links to the websites where you are wagering at so people could check out your bets and follow you unless you prefer air betting only Welcome to the forum and good luck with your picks. I`m measuring the Expectancy or Expected value, since my bets are always measured with 1 BTC betsize so PROFIT= EXPECTED VALUE. I am betting with euros currently, because fiat bookies have better odds, but my bets are just as good with bitcoin. So don't worry it's measured very well. Nice to see another tipster here. The more the merrier as they say. It is good that Op realize that he first have to build his reputation and then he could offer 'premium tips'. I usually consider tipster valid and serious after I see more than 100-150 tips from him. Let's wait and see how good Op is. Good luck.
Yes, that is true, i want to be as transparent as possible. My bets are very high quality so people should use them to make some money while they are free.
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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patt0
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Betting Championship betking.io/sports-leaderboard
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May 28, 2016, 01:58:32 PM |
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Your introduction seems interesting. I will follow your thread closely to see how it goes. I don't understand the advantage thing. I mean isn't sports betting just about good analysis of games and good predictions, why did you need the help from your brother? It's not like you are trying to exploit anything are you?
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jayce
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jayceDESIGNS
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May 28, 2016, 02:51:41 PM Last edit: May 28, 2016, 03:41:08 PM by jayce |
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Your introduction seems interesting. I will follow your thread closely to see how it goes. I don't understand the advantage thing. I mean isn't sports betting just about good analysis of games and good predictions, why did you need the help from your brother? It's not like you are trying to exploit anything are you?
Sportsbetting need some statistic, and statistic is a part of mathematics. So, I guess, by help of a mathematician, he could seek the highest chance for win from all of probabilities they have counted. We can't say that the lowest odds category that given by house has the highest chance for win. Its just my point of view, cmiiw. good luck for op. I cant wait patiently the result of the first picks.
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zeaderza
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May 28, 2016, 03:39:32 PM |
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Hello,
You write in presentation about a strategy,can share with as your strategy? How much you bet?What bankroll you use?
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DarkStar_
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May 28, 2016, 03:55:42 PM |
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Your keeping track of the expected value for your tips? How does that work? Do you expect a certain percentage to win, and then use a random generator to decide which picks will be expected to win? I'm really confused with that format. Just keep track of units. Since your betting 1 bitcoin on each pick, switch it to 1 unit. A win at @1.52 will increase your units by +0.52. A loss would change your units by -1 units. Easier for the people wanting to see how well your tips work, because EV isn't always what happens.
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taking a break - expect delayed responses
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equator
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May 28, 2016, 04:05:43 PM |
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As per my experience till now like this Thread are opened so many , who are just betting on favorites and when more favorites lose the match , they just vanish, It is not like always favorites win,
And can you please give us the link where you are also betting on your predictions or you are just giving prediction for others to bet.
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dorhug121
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May 28, 2016, 04:43:58 PM |
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do you giving free tips on e sport match ? because esport match is worth it , than football or volley
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Caladonian
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May 28, 2016, 06:20:19 PM |
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it seems that this is another free tipster here and odds are safe making it carefully studied if that many free tips will won at the time winning a parlay will work, but as we all knew that even favorite got loss in tennis and football, I'll be waiting for the results and check what can be your winning stats shows.
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Winner780 (OP)
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Jack
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May 29, 2016, 03:12:36 AM |
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ROUND 1 RESULTS: Tennis for today Legend: Bolded name is my picked winner, after the '@' symbol is the odds 09:00 A Zverev v D Thiem 2016 French Open @ 1.26 W09:00 Parmentier v Bacsinszky 2016 French Open @ 1.24 W09:00 SuÁrez Navarro v Cibulkova 2016 French Open @ 1.60 W10:00 Gasparyan/Kuznetsova v Jurak/Konjuh 2016 French Open @ 1.28 W11:00 Carreno Busta/Marrero v Stepanek/Zimonjic 2016 French Open @ 1.41 W11:00 D Ferrer v Fel Lopez 2016 French Open @ 1.17 W11:00 Herbert/Mahut v Kudla/Peralta 2016 French Open @ 1.20 L13:00 Butorac/Lipsky v Kubot/Peya 2016 French Open @ 1.79 W13:00 Gulbis v Tsonga 2016 French Open @ 1.49 L15:00 Bertens v Kasatkina 2016 French Open @ 1.55 W16:00 Maria/Mahut v Kudryavtseva/Bopanna 2016 French Open @ 1.55 W Football for today Legend: Bolded name is my picked winner, after the '@' symbol is the odds. Attention, the bet type is no draw bet, so there is a binary outcome, in an event of draw the bets are refunded. 09:00 Nagasaki v Jef Utd Chiba J2 League @ 1.71 D09:30 C-Osaka v Okayama J2 League @ 1.49 W09:45 Atletico Madrid (W) v Ath Bilbao (W) Primera Division (W) @ 1.53 W13:00 KTP v Jaro Ykkonen @ 1.6 W13:00 Roskilde v Skive Danish Division 1 @ 1.69 W14:00 AIK v Orebro Allsvenskan @ 1.43 W14:00 Melfi v Martina Franca Lega Pro @ 1.42 D16:00 Rosenborg v Molde Tippeligaen @ 1.33 D Profit (EV): 4.49 ROI: 449% Winrate: 87.5%
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I will retire pretty soon from all the profits we make, so i wont be active on this forum in the future
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