Does the next halving really matter that much?

[jaysabi]

Okay, will the next halving really matter? All i see is people talking about it and waiting to happen, "the price will rise", "to the moon". But what will really happen after the halving?

Right now, there are about 15 million Bitcoins "alive". The Bitcoin cap is 21 millions. So it is true, the block reward will get sliced to half, but there will be only 6 million Bitcoins left to mine. And because of this, i dont think the price will rise by that much.

My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase after halving
2. Price increase doesnt happen
3. PANIC
4. ...




So this is just my opinion. Please post yours in the replys. What do you expect after halving and why?

Waiting for the price to increase after the halving doesn't make much sense. Markets are forward-looking, so by the time the halving occurs, the expected rise attributable to the halving should have already taken place. (At least, in a rational and liquid market, which bitcoin is more than it isn't.) Also consider that the price has more than doubled since last August, and perhaps the effect of the halving has already run its course. People expecting a sudden double are delusional. But we've had more than a double in less than a year, all while speculation about what the halving is supposed to do to the price grows. Perhaps the double everyone is looking for has already happened.

[1715145056]

1715145056

[angaper]

I can't imagine a "panic" scenario at any time. Actually there are no justified reasons to think so, and many people are getting the idea of it; perhaps when the time of halving comes the market had taken an anticipated position, pricing in the bitcoin with anticipation.

[Blitzcranky]

It depends on the person and what you want to do with your Bitcoins. If you want to buy some coins then the halving can bey key for you because the value can go down so you can buy more coins then before.

[MWesterweele]

I agree with you dude.Bitcoins price will surely rise this halving 2016 but not like what happend last bitcoin halving.Because of you said about bitcoin cap, 6 Million bitcoins is jus small amounts for the biggest bitcoin miners online now that will not take 3 years or more to mine that remaining bitcoins.But lets all hope for this halving that be a succesful and historical halving again

[Karartma1]

We already have have around 16 million coins and this means that with the new block reward corresponding to 12.5 btc we are not going to see that many new coins generated like it is right now. There's a chance mining will become completely unprofitable unless certain conditions will take place (i.e. a higher BTC price).
This was clear since the beginning because all these halvings are set in stone in the protocol.
I personally feel BTC should be valued more than today. But that remains to be seen

[hasiramasenju]

your predictions for number 1 will be correct because most people has waiting the prices increase after halving even there is no guarantee the prices will rise up and i do believe some people still hold their bitcoins because hoping that could earn very much profit
and number 3 also i think this is will be come true especially if the price rise up with very fast i'm pretty sure panic selling will be happen here

[martinacar]

I think that it will depend on the person some people might find it good and some not. I does not really matter to me, as long as I can make money with it I am happy with everything that is happening.

[alyssa85]

The price increase has already happened, bitcoin has increased 155% this year. The question is when people will start taking profits. If it happens quickly it will tank the price, if it is slow and measured, we might stay at this level for a while and consolidate.

[jaysabi]

We already have have around 16 million coins and this means that with the new block reward corresponding to 12.5 btc we are not going to see that many new coins generated like it is right now. There's a chance mining will become completely unprofitable unless certain conditions will take place (i.e. a higher BTC price).
This was clear since the beginning because all these halvings are set in stone in the protocol.
I personally feel BTC should be valued more than today. But that remains to be seen

12.5 coins per block is still a lot of new coins every day. It is half the current rate of inflation, but 12.5 coins every ten minutes figures out to 1,800 new coins a day, or about a million dollars worth at current prices. That's not an insignificant amount. Mining could very well become unprofitable, but this is a self-correcting mechanism - difficulty will fall to the point it is again for those who remain, but with a lot of idle CPU power, the profit margin is always going to be razor thin, because one person's profit margin is another person's opportunity to steal it.

[jaysabi]

The price increase has already happened, bitcoin has increased 155% this year. The question is when people will start taking profits. If it happens quickly it will tank the price, if it is slow and measured, we might stay at this level for a while and consolidate.

Yes thank you! I have been saying this for so long. People seem to think that the price will still double, or that if they don't see it double all at the same time, it doesn't count. The fact is, bitcoin has already more than doubled in the past year, so if 1) we conclude that the halving will double price (by no means an acceptable given), then 2) we also have to allow for the possibility that the double already happened.

Either of these on their own raises enough uncertainty about buying now because of the halving, but together... people buying on the thesis that the halving means easy profit is taking on far more risk than they think they are.

[Mvaporis1961]

Yes especially to those miner of bitcoin because i think that there is a possibility that they will stop if the mining difficulty was high and if they think that mining bitcoin will not be profitable anymore.

[angaper]

Actually I don't think the next halving should have drastic repercussions in the bitcoin economy because at this moment it is enough mature to assimilate this event well. Additionally this event has been largely announced and all that people that could be affected, they have already taken all the necessary measures to face this halving.

[Arrakeen]

If nothing else, all the hype will cause word of mouth to attract new interest and investors.  Price could be affected, depending on how many people buy in with large amounts of fiat.  Regardless, the only smart option for holders is to keep holding 

[Cybertron00]

I agree with you dude.Bitcoins price will surely rise this halving 2016 but not like what happend last bitcoin halving.Because of you said about bitcoin cap, 6 Million bitcoins is jus small amounts for the biggest bitcoin miners online now that will not take 3 years or more to mine that remaining bitcoins.But lets all hope for this halving that be a succesful and historical halving again

I agree with you bro. Its just my prediction but it might happen.
My predictions would be:
1. Everyone waiting for the price increase that will be caused by halving
2. Price increase happened
3. Everyone selling bitcoin
4. some ppl waiting to buy bitcoin at a low price
5. Bitcoin back to the normal price  But it will probably rise again

[jaysabi]

Look at all the people buying in to the current bubble. Why are they buying? To make a profit. So how do they get their profit? They have to sell. And once the momentum turns to selling in a big way, it will cascade upon itself and make the drop even steeper. All the people buying in right now will rush to get out to preserve their profit, or to keep from losing their initial investment. I don't see anyway the current price holds up after the halving with everyone in a panic over how fast the price will drop.

[Vikingr]

I think after this halving we should have to work for the stability of bitcoin and not for the pumps and dumps, as with that more people will believe on it and more businesses will be started with bitcoin payment system so bitcoin will flourish and will become an established global currency.

[BitcoinPaw]

I think that halving is really matter for everybody who interested or linked with bitcoin, price nowdays is $700 and it's really just unbelievable!

[mirakal]

Every halving gives more opportunity for the investors so it would matter as the price will increase again and we will witness the bitcoins to go to the moon that time.

[Belligerent Fool]

Just wait till the new even more energy efficient ASIC miners get released, 30% of the total network hashrate popped up on the network in the last 3-4 weeks, now you tell me what could that be ?

100TH+ Energy efficient miners coming out ?

If that's the case bitcoin will eventually recede in price to a slow dwindle just like halving beforehand, everyone got scared then bitmain released their updated hardware so everyone sold their BTC so they could buy them, history will repeat itself otherwise mining for years with the same hardware would be pointless to Hardware companies wanting to make profit from their devices.

[GermanFoobla]

no it does not matter really much because it only affects the miners so i dont think you have to be scared that the price will drop cause of this so i dont think the halving really affect.