Does the next halving really matter that much?

[gilangIDR]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

[1715207295]

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[mandica]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

The recent drop of the bitcoin price is due to the Bitfinex exchange hack, it has nothing to do with the halving.

[sanas]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

The recent drop of the bitcoin price is due to the Bitfinex exchange hack, it has nothing to do with the halving.

That is right. In the next few months, when the reduction of the supply of the new coins are felt, the price will go higher.

[yayayo]

As we have seen, the halving did not lead to an immediate price increase. That's no surprise since the event was known years in advance. Investors and the mining industry generally prepare their positions before an event. Indeed, the Bitcoin price did rise prior to the halving. However there is no clear proof that the halving was the reason, since there is an uncountable number of other possible factors that could have influenced the Bitcoin price.

I'm pretty sure that all professional mining operators adjusted their operations in advance of the halving to ensure they remain profitable. It remains to be seen whether we see excess demand, excess supply or the same relationship like before for Bitcoin, because it is possible that miners sold only a fraction of their coins at a 25 BTC reward. So the real market supply for new coins might not change at all.

ya.ya.yo!

[randy8777]

As we have seen, the halving did not lead to an immediate price increase. That's no surprise since the event was known years in advance. Investors and the mining industry generally prepare their positions before an event. Indeed, the Bitcoin price did rise prior to the halving. However there is no clear proof that the halving was the reason, since there is an uncountable number of other possible factors that could have influenced the Bitcoin price.

I'm pretty sure that all professional mining operators adjusted their operations in advance of the halving to ensure they remain profitable. It remains to be seen whether we see excess demand, excess supply or the same relationship like before for Bitcoin, because it is possible that miners sold only a fraction of their coins at a 25 BTC reward. So the real market supply for new coins might not change at all.

ya.ya.yo!

i am fairly sure that the price increase that happened before the block halving was purely because of people were thinking that the price would go up after the halving. so it was the hype and speculation that has been driving the price. smart people have used the peak in the month june to cash out the coins they bought before that. and that's exactly what has happened.

[jaysabi]

I think so. The difficulty doubles every halving and that means it becomes difficult over time exponentially and not linearly. It matters to the miners out there, they have to push before the next halving occurs or they will mine it twice harder. To people who don't do mining at all, halving also matters because it somehow increases the price of bitcoin. Bitcoin's price at first isn't that much because we haven't passed any halving yet and because Bitcoin is still new. If we pass more halvings and more people started to invest in gambling, there will be scarcity in the supply of Bitcoin and scarcity makes the value of something higher.

The difficulty does not double every halving, in fact the difficulty is unrelated to the halving at all. Difficulty is only affected by the number of hashes being performed. You can see in this graph that the difficulty has already more than doubled in just the first 8 months of this year.

[deisik]

As we have seen, the halving did not lead to an immediate price increase. That's no surprise since the event was known years in advance. Investors and the mining industry generally prepare their positions before an event. Indeed, the Bitcoin price did rise prior to the halving. However there is no clear proof that the halving was the reason, since there is an uncountable number of other possible factors that could have influenced the Bitcoin price

There can indeed be an innumerable number of factors (most of them offsetting each other, though), but you still have to explain somehow the almost four times growth in the Bitcoin price within just a year. Saying that a lot of factors very efficiently and very timely added up to boost the price so high just doesn't cut it. I think it can be readily explained by the collusion of the Chinese miners (actually mining pools) to prop up the Bitcoin price before the halving (by withholding bitcoins they mine)...

If you think there is none, think again, for example, about the block size which is still where it was a year ago

[OROBTC]

...

O/T, note for deisik

I received my OPENDIMEs today, and had a chance to test one (putting BTC, then taking it out).  Link:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1452987.40

TL;DR: The device works, but a tiny bit more complicated for relative beginners (like me).  Also, to send funds OUT, you (or recipient) needs a wallet that will accept importing public & private keys.

[sanas]

As we have seen, the halving did not lead to an immediate price increase. That's no surprise since the event was known years in advance. Investors and the mining industry generally prepare their positions before an event. Indeed, the Bitcoin price did rise prior to the halving. However there is no clear proof that the halving was the reason, since there is an uncountable number of other possible factors that could have influenced the Bitcoin price.

I'm pretty sure that all professional mining operators adjusted their operations in advance of the halving to ensure they remain profitable. It remains to be seen whether we see excess demand, excess supply or the same relationship like before for Bitcoin, because it is possible that miners sold only a fraction of their coins at a 25 BTC reward. So the real market supply for new coins might not change at all.

ya.ya.yo!

i am fairly sure that the price increase that happened before the block halving was purely because of people were thinking that the price would go up after the halving. so it was the hype and speculation that has been driving the price. smart people have used the peak in the month june to cash out the coins they bought before that. and that's exactly what has happened.

That is true. The price rose before the halving. So there is no price rise after the halving. The price drop now has nothing to do with halving.

[fravia]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

yeah, the price dropped a little bit though i dont think this is going to go like that for a long time, in my opinion the price is going to jump soon

[expert4knowledge]

If you look at the chart, you see that price rise happened with a lag before halving and after halving it did not increase nor decreased so halving could attracted many people into bitcoin searching to get a good profit.

[mirakal]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

yeah, the price dropped a little bit though i dont think this is going to go like that for a long time, in my opinion the price is going to jump soon

I also agree with your prediction that this current price will not last, in the next few days it will totally increase because the demand is increasing and the crisis is already over, the current trend now is a good sign that price will pump soon.

[ASHLIUSZ]

With increased usage and wider adoption of Bitcoin, the demand for bitcoins is always increasing, there was a good impact in price before recent halving and it showed no positive signs after. we cant predict whether the next halving brings good impact on price, that we can see later.

[deisik]

With increased usage and wider adoption of Bitcoin, the demand for bitcoins is always increasing, there was a good impact in price before recent halving and it showed no positive signs after. we cant predict whether the next halving brings good impact on price, that we can see later.

Four years is a lot of time. Anything can happen in the interim, and, in this way, the next halving can be totally discarded for the time being if you are trying to make an "educated" guess, lol

[sanas]

With increased usage and wider adoption of Bitcoin, the demand for bitcoins is always increasing, there was a good impact in price before recent halving and it showed no positive signs after. we cant predict whether the next halving brings good impact on price, that we can see later.

Four years is a lot of time. Anything can happen in the interim, and, in this way, the next halving can be totally discarded for the time being if you are trying to make an "educated" guess, lol

In the next 4 years, the bitcoin price will be affected by the mass adoption. The more usage, the higher the fee, the less effect of the halving.

[lister storm]

until now there has been significant change. bitcoin price has declined compared to the previous. halving halving no impact and also make the market very panic.

and there most probably wont be any improvement in the near future, i think that it should grow at some point though i cannot tell it for sure

[mandica]

With increased usage and wider adoption of Bitcoin, the demand for bitcoins is always increasing, there was a good impact in price before recent halving and it showed no positive signs after. we cant predict whether the next halving brings good impact on price, that we can see later.

Four years is a lot of time. Anything can happen in the interim, and, in this way, the next halving can be totally discarded for the time being if you are trying to make an "educated" guess, lol

In the next 4 years, the bitcoin price will be affected by the mass adoption. The more usage, the higher the fee, the less effect of the halving.

After a few more halving, the transactions within a block will be more than the block reward due to the general usage.

[deisik]

With increased usage and wider adoption of Bitcoin, the demand for bitcoins is always increasing, there was a good impact in price before recent halving and it showed no positive signs after. we cant predict whether the next halving brings good impact on price, that we can see later.

Four years is a lot of time. Anything can happen in the interim, and, in this way, the next halving can be totally discarded for the time being if you are trying to make an "educated" guess, lol

In the next 4 years, the bitcoin price will be affected by the mass adoption. The more usage, the higher the fee, the less effect of the halving.

After a few more halving, the transactions within a block will be more than the block reward due to the general usage.

It is not given. If the usage doesn't expand but the rewards decline (due to forthcoming halvings), miners may try to cause an artificial jam as it had happened exactly one year ago. It may help them short-term, but in the long run users will just start to transact less with higher amounts per transaction...

And the fees may actually decrease per block

[jak3]

the price did really increased but not for halving but because of holding before halving and now since we have seen about what just happened on this haling next time it will start decreasing its importance.

[wikenpp]

At this moment it seems to me the only thing can can positively influence the bitcoin price are halving. With good news; new versions, news; steem accepting bitcoin or the brexit debacle the price was not moved an inch, but for some reason when it is about halving the price goes up just like that.

So yeah it matters a lot, although I am sure before 2020 the price will increase gradually.