I saw the s-10 spec thread  and I know we will never have an s-10.

So I am asking that about the correctly named thread.


Also I will get to have the first s-11 thread .  


My guess is  it will not come out for a long time and that the s-9  is going to last for more then 20 months.

My guess is no s-10.  Since bitmain did not do an s-6

I agree about the S10, i did not reply there, since all i would had to said about it is party pooping.

The S11... i really don't know, maybe a improved version of the 14nm chip? And ran at much lower voltage? I don't know but other than that i think it will take a while.

For a improved 14nm at lower voltage we might see 100% gain in efficiency, for the next NM step... probably triple the H/J gain, at the same voltage, in efficiency as usual.

Given the issues Intel has had getting 10nm to work at all, I'd bet AGAINST 10nm going mainstream in 2018, and wouldn't bet on it managing mass production in 2019.

Also, it's VERY doubtfull that 10nm would manage a 3:1 improvement in efficiency - and iffy if it could manage even a 2:1 ratio.
Quantum effects have gotten to be a serious issue and limitation as feature sizes keep getting smaller.


 My guess is "no S11 before 2020", but I wouldn't be shocked to be a year off.

Link to this alleged S9 controller board?

(Edit)

 Nevermind, found it - only 4 connectors populated, but I do see the holes for the other 16. I DO wonder why they populated 4 connectors though if they only need 3 for the hashboards?

Yes 4 and 20 both strange numbers as neither is divisible by 3? 4 populated could just be so that you have a spare in case of connection problems?

Rich

Oh yeah, my speculation.

 S11 will continue to be a 3-board design in a form factor similar to the S7/S9.

 25.3 TH plus/minus 5% at 1487 watts +7% at the wall using their 1600 watt PS (93% efficienty).
 Initial shipping date 16 Febuary 2020.
 Initial batch cost 4.3 Bitcoin, or whatever that equates to in Dollars = or $3200 dollars, whichever is MORE.

 The CHIP (BM1389) will be capable of 0.045 J/GH but they won't run it at it's highest efficiency point or anywhere close to that.


 I'm giving it 50/50 they'll come up with a BM1388 chip in late 2017, squeezing another 25-35% efficiency from it through improvements in process node tech and more work at optimisation - in which case there will be an S11 much sooner, but it will be more of an S5 to S7 transition on the same node with quite a bit lower percentage improvement on specs.


 BTW - anyone else notice that the BM1386 is missing in action? Gotta wonder if they started work on a 14/16nm not-full-optimised chip design and aborted it when they realised it wouldn't be efficient enough over the BM1385 to be worth producing (Hello LK-1401)....

And i'm pretty sure Bitmain will stick to current TDP. 1400W~ make sense and that by itself take up a whole typical 120v circuit.

I also think they will come up with something else before the end of the year. Maybe they will keep churning out S9's... but i don't know. I'd be inclined to see them release a S9+ thats the same thing, but lower voltage, so they can farm more money off silly miners.

could go with .05 watt/Giga.


could be even lower, you know S11 won't be as fast as mid 2017, it will be within mid 2018 as they are probably introducing a S? model each year.
i mean, the watt power: assume that kind of miner could go lower than 1200 Kw.

question is , is it chip advances ? board ? combo of ? and how much of that is power savings vs "delivered strength in acceptable envelope" ?

 Why would Bitmain care about what a used 2880 Bladecenter PS can handle? They don't sell those.

I suspect their new chip might be capable of that - at the bottom end of it's operating voltage range, where Bitmain NEVER runs their miners.



could be even lower, you know S11 won't be as fast as mid 2017, it will be within mid 2018 as they are probably introducing a S? model each year.
i mean, the watt power: assume that kind of miner could go lower than 1200 Kw.
[/quote]

 I believe they might come up with a S9 lite model, 2 boards like the current S7 varient.

 I'm pretty SURE they'll do a S9+ as a "triple" miner similar to the S5+ since they'll have plenty of time to do varients on the S9 theme.

 They probably won't release a "single unit" form factor miner every that can't be powered by a single one of their 1600 watt PS, but multi-unit types they've already done and probably will do again.

 However, if they come up with a new 14/16nm chip with 25%+ better efficiency than their current BM1387, it won't go into an "S9" model - that's inconsistant with their past practice. It'll be a "supprise we're early" S11 model.


 Gotta wonder how many of those S7 lite model things they managed to sell before the S9 announcement pretty much killed that design.