I just don't get it.

[piramida]

piramida, you repeatedly surprise me with nice fore-/insights.

thanks, it's easy to be right when the price goes in a straight line just wish I spent more time thinking about what bitcoins really is back in 2010, dismissed it as monopoly money first and will never forget this silliness.

[1714885020]

1714885020

[molecular]

piramida, you repeatedly surprise me with nice fore-/insights.

thanks, it's easy to be right when the price goes in a straight line just wish I spent more time thinking about what bitcoins really is back in 2010, dismissed it as monopoly money first and will never forget this silliness.

I dismissed it as "probably broken software" in May 2010 because my laptop hadn't mined even a measly 0.01 BTC which I would've expected. Stupid me for not looking harder and discovering the smallest unit to mine was a block worth BTC 50...

[oakpacific]

piramida, you repeatedly surprise me with nice fore-/insights.

thanks, it's easy to be right when the price goes in a straight line just wish I spent more time thinking about what bitcoins really is back in 2010, dismissed it as monopoly money first and will never forget this silliness.

I dismissed it as "probably broken software" in May 2010 because my laptop hadn't mined even a measly 0.01 BTC which I would've expected. Stupid me for not looking harder and discovering the smallest unit to mine was a block worth BTC 50...

You guys would feet better if you come to think of what an early adopter who dumped tens of thousands of BTCs back in 2011 would feel now.

Seriously, this is how Bitcoin and free market combined to achieve fairness of the distribution, we are all just pawns of the history.

[piramida]

I dismissed it as "probably broken software" in May 2010 because my laptop hadn't mined even a measly 0.01 BTC which I would've expected. Stupid me for not looking harder and discovering the smallest unit to mine was a block worth BTC 50...

Yep, same. I downloaded blockchain, CPU mined for two days, got worried this crap is burning my laptop and not generating anything, checked forums and saw guys running around with topics like "100,000 bitcoins for 100 dolalrs any takers?", and uninstalled / forgot about it until June next year. Dumb.

[molecular]

I dismissed it as "probably broken software" in May 2010 because my laptop hadn't mined even a measly 0.01 BTC which I would've expected. Stupid me for not looking harder and discovering the smallest unit to mine was a block worth BTC 50...

Yep, same. I downloaded blockchain, CPU mined for two days, got worried this crap is burning my laptop and not generating anything, checked forums and saw guys running around with topics like "100,000 bitcoins for 100 dolalrs any takers?", and uninstalled / forgot about it until June next year. Dumb.

Dumbness is being punished (not like in the "real" financial world). I like it. A bit less when it's my own dumbness, though.

[josiahgarber]

Why does the price of bitcoin keep going up???

I'm pissed now that I sold all of mine.

It's gone up nearly $8 since I jumped ship.

I think about buying back in but I keep thinking it it is a high risk, and hard to make a decent profit at this price... Could it really get into the $60+ range?

I find it hard to believe.

So seriously... What is it?

What are the factors at play here.. Help me make an informed decision.

I just can't figure this thing out.

More people want bitcoins than want to get rid of them.  Bitcoin has the potential to be more important than any company on earth as it could become involved in a significant portion of all transactions around the world.  With this in mind a bitcoin price in the thousands is quite possible.  Consider the Market Cap of Apple and Divide it by 21 Million...  Bitcoin has the potential to be way more important than Apple.  Of course there is a good chance, it could replaced by another currency which works even better or it could have a flaw and go to Zero.

In my opinion Bitcoin as a speculative investment has more potential upside than any investment I have ever seen in my life.  There is also a very high risk of it becoming close to worthless.  I think a good strategy with this in mind is decide what small, or very small percentage of your net worth you want to expose to this risk and then buy and hold.  If things work out you will probably do pretty well.  If they don't you'll lose your small percentage of your net worth invested.

Hopefully that helps.

[DoomDumas]

Seems like normal growth to date..

This should double again and again !

Before the june 2011 bubble, price doubled few time in less than a month..  That's old data, not really to be compared to those days state of the coin !
After the long correction to 2, price doubled few time in a time frame from 1 to 3 month.. we are still in this trend..

0.1   0.2   3 weeks         late 2010
0.2   0.4   1 week         late 2010
0.5   1.0   less than a week   feb 2011
1.0   2.0   less than 2 weeks   apr 2011
2.0   4.0   less than 2 weeks   may 2011
5   10   less than a month   may 2011
10   20   less than a week   june 2011
Bubble
Bubble pop
then again
2   4   1 month         late 2011
4   8   1 month         mid 2012
10   20   3 month         not so long ago
20   40   1 month         now !

So, IMO, it would be reasonable to call for 80/BTC within 3 month.. and easy way to 100 before 2014 !
Very reasonable, concidering BTC are just in the begining to be known, as 99% of the world population did'nt even heard of it yet.  The 1% who knows about BTC, a small portion realize the power of it.
Very reasonable, concidering the progress made in the last years, are growing from an experiment to something more and more solid, trusted.

Just my opinion !

[DoomDumas]

Bitcoin are the future for peoples.. more and more peoples are realizing it.

Fiat are so much debase, and it's only the begining of the realm where fiat are heading to toilet paper use..

World economies are in a so bad shape.. The future is not bright at all..

It took me more than a year to realize how much this thing (bitcoin) is great.  Under 100$ it really undervaluated.. IMO, it will stabilize well over 1000$ !
Before realizing how powerfull bitcoins are, I've sold more than 5000 under a dollar.

This is not yet a bubble, look at all-time data log chart, you will see that we are'nt even entering in the bubble territory.  

Bitoin are to money, what's email are to regular post and even a lot more.. welcome to the future..

When you'll pay 200$ for a week of potatoes, you'll understand.. those who are pilling fiat for their old days will regret so much !

DoomDumas, I love your posts. Not only because we think alike and you're ultra-bull, but also because of your funny-as-hell english mistakes.

I want this part on a T-Shirt:

FIAT
are so much
debase
                   DoomDumas
                       bitcointalk
                        March '13

  I do my best, happy to entertain you

[justusranvier]

This is what Excel predicts:

[deadweasel]

This is what Excel predicts:

We'd all be rich if excel could predict the price.  This market has no precedent.   I do hope it follows that line though. 

[cbeast]

Maybe Bitcoin is BRK.A on steroids

[Grouver (BtcBalance)]

This is what Excel predicts:

If you draw that line from the start via the average of June 2011 it would have been $1000000~ now lol.

[Jutarul]

There are physical limits to where the price can go in monetary terms. I expect first one to be the gold price barrier: ~ 500g Gold/BTC
Please note these physical limits don't exist with paper currencies like the USD, because they are infinitely inflatable.

[johnyj]

The FED only know one way to stimulate the economy and that is to pour dollars on everything like gasoline.  The M2 has "only" expanded 60% or so in the last three years.  Why?  The FED can't directly change the amount of money in circulation.  It can only create conditions where banks increase debt which produces more money.  However banks have found this great loophole.  They borrow money from the FED for essentially 0% dump it into Tbonds for 2% to 3% and collect a nearly risk free return. 

Still 60% M2 inflation in three years is pretty huge.  You may be wondering if the number of dollars has increased by 60%+ why haven't prices almost doubled.  Well velocity has fallen off a cliff.

Thanks for sharing this chart. I think the decrease in money velocity is the real problem behind the scene, it seems after 2000 the total consumption is decreasing most of the time, and this just showed that economy can not grow forever

But why the velocity is down is much more difficult to analyze. I think it is largely due to money concentration caued by technology advance and globalization/ and less and less future demand

[Jutarul]

But why the velocity is down is much more difficult to analyze. I think it is largely due to money concentration caued by technology advance and globalization/ and less and less future demand

or.... it is a natural phenomenon whenever money accumulates with a few very rich. They just can't spent fast enough, as the remaining 99.9% would.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

But why the velocity is down is much more difficult to analyze. I think it is largely due to money concentration caued by technology advance and globalization/ and less and less future demand

or.... it is a natural phenomenon whenever money accumulates with a few very rich. They just can't spent fast enough, as the remaining 99.9% would.

Or people feel uncertain about being fired in a bad economy, thus logically save more for a rainy day...

[Jutarul]

I wanted to add that divide and conquer also applies to economy... and thus the velocity theory of money.

I don't think it's the people's fault. Watch the movie "end of road". It explains nicely how the situation of the common family slowly eroded throughout the last 40 years, until a point at which they had to take credit to keep up their standard of living. This game has ended now. There's no leverage anymore. The inflation machine has squeezed the economy dry.

[OhShei8e]

Its yet to be seen if bitcoin can scale given the block size issue and a hard fork managed badly could seriously put a dent in confidence.

There are good reasons to be cautious.

Any news on this? I'm curious how it works. But too lazy to read the developer list. ;-)

[justusranvier]

The changes needed to make Bitcoin scale aren't conceptually difficult. The only problem is that for some reason people are opposed to allowing Bitcoin to succeed.

[proudhon]

This is what Excel predicts:

I actually lol'd when I saw that.  Thanks for the laugh.