BFL worth it now?

[The Koolio]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

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[smoothie]

Yes it isn't worth it.

[hardcore-fs]

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill  PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

[crazyates]

After I start getting my pre-orders, I plan on purchasing more Singles. I consider it worth it, but I'm looking long-term.

[CrazyGuy]

It's a tough call, my guess is that current orders will arrive around 2 months after the first orders ship, which may be next week. The hope is that rising difficulty will go hand in hand with rising BTC price, but that is not a given. Even if it does, it's highly unlikely that BTC value will rise at the same rate. Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

In any case, you can't make money if you don't risk any. So you know what to do...(build a time machine and go back to 2010. Buy 100,000 btc for 100 bucks or so, travel to 2018 and sell them for $100,000,000)

[Beans]

It's impossible to say, the best bet is to wait and see what they pay out. Those who invested early with BF will never make back what they would have just holding btc. BF is so far behind now I expect it will take them 7 months to catch up to current orders. I think even that is optimistic. BF seems to be near some kind of time dilation field. When I retire I may move down there, even if my Doctor only gives me 4-6 weeks. That's almost a year in BF time.

[cdog]

It's a tough call, my guess is that current orders will arrive around 2 months after the first orders ship, which may be next week.

I think both those #s are extremely optimistic.

With BFL, always, ALWAYS look at the glass half full...

[crazyates]

Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Well who on earth is actually expecting a 6 day 100% ROI? Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, considering the cost/return of GPUs and FPGAs, and is still completely obtainable wth BFL equipment, even at high difficulties. With a difficulty of 100Million, which is on the high side of your estimate at 700TH/s, you're still looking at less than a 5 month ROI. A network of 1000TH/s and difficulty of 140Million is still a 7 month ROI. What is there to complain about that?

[CrazyGuy]

Current estimates point to anywhere between 500 and 750 th out there by July. BTC would need to be anywhere from $560-$840 per coin by then to keep the current profitability scale. Very unlikely, but if you told me BTC would soon be approaching $40 this time last month, I would not believe it.

Well who on earth is actually expecting a 6 day 100% ROI? Me personally, I'm looking for a 6-8 month ROI, which I consider to be quite standard in the past, considering the cost/return of GPUs and FPGAs, and is still completely obtainable wth BFL equipment, even at high difficulties. With a difficulty of 100Million, which is on the high side of your estimate at 700TH/s, you're still looking at less than a 5 month ROI. A network of 1000TH/s and difficulty of 140Million is still a 7 month ROI. What is there to complain about that?

Yes 6-8 months is perfectly acceptable in my opinion, I purchased my fpga singles with that assumption. Current buyers do have a few variables that need to be analyzed beforehand though. BTC value, delivery time, necessity of preorder with impending mass production, and future ASIC prices. All of that said, current BTC value, market trend, and network hashrate estimates appear to point to a safe investment. Looking at our short history, that could all change in a day.

[creativex]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

At this point I think you should wait until they've demonstrated a functional shipping product. Their own chart indicates that they expect current(March) orders to ship in June and as we've seen time a time again BFL estimates are consistently overly optimistic.

[squall1066]

Agreed on the waiting part, I have one early (first batch) unit, I will not part with any more untill I see a working unit (either by me or a trusted user here with pics)

[NEO2012]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

jsut watch the payd trolls  who said yes  its worth it


and even post a bfl unoficial table of shiipping

after half a year of delays and not having one single  jelly even in existence even in there lab for there own testing  not  shipping or deliveries to speak off


dont waste ur time and money  at this stage in the game

[NEO2012]

If I chose to put an order down on a 60gh unit do you think I would get it too late to make any profits? Im tempted to buy one but I think I may be too far back in the queue.

DUDE ULL MAKE UR MONEY BACK

JUST WILL TAKE 2 - 4 YEARS

THATS ALL

[NEO2012]

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill  PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited  already run intro problems

expect another  3 weeks delay

and 3 more steps  with and avarage of  3 weeks delay per step

and we only talkin about  the orders placed in june2012

if u order now u wont see a fl asic  til 2014  for sure

[enocog]

Don't waste the cash....

In Jan Josh said "you order now, you get it in Feb"
In Feb Josh said "you order now, you get it in Mar"

It is march now current orders are up at about 20,000

A few dozen Avalons have hit the road, and already the difficulty is 4.2mill  PPS is down at 0.0000054374254214, which is down 20% from a couple of weeks ago.

Also BFL have gone completely quite, this was after the 'hot dream' less than a week ago of getting chips and them starting the 'bumping' process...

I actually wish I had gone with Avalon, when I saw it in Sep.....

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited  already run intro problems

expect another  3 weeks delay

and 3 more steps  with and avarage of  3 weeks delay per step

and we only talkin about  the orders placed in june2012

if u order now u wont see a fl asic  til 2014  for sure

+1 Seems as if they having some serious engineering problems. I wonder if it's hardware, software or both. The thing that seems fishy to me as an engineer is, I design stuff everyday run it through calculations, simulations so on and so forth. When the design is complete and assembled it may require miner tweaking but it all works and there's never delays like these guys have. They are using the BTC community to fund there R&D not nice

[Entropy-uc]

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

Of course, BFL's track history makes it much more likely that they will struggle to ship 10 units / day.  In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving.   

[mokahless]

chips are now at packaing with as josh admited  already run intro problems

Source? I seem to have missed this news and I've been keeping up to date with his posts and the "unofficial BFL news" twitter feed.

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this? Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab. Admittedly though, he doesn't know much about the process but from where I stand right now, you've not mentioned your experience or research at all. He also did not mention bumping but I find it hard to believe this is a 24 hour process, especially when a fab has multiple customers.

So please, enlighten me on the manufacturing processes and send me a link to the news item I missed.

[Surpbitcoin]

.

  In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving.   

Priceless.. I almost pissed my pants when I read this!

2 thumbs up!

[Syke]

indeed  bfl nothing  but  lies   3 weeks delays  for a 24 hours process like bunping

How do you know this?  Someone I know who worked for an electronics company said it took between 6-10 weeks from the when the fab receives the ASIC design. He said the packaging process took between 1-2 weeks. This is for an established and experienced company in a good relationship with the fab.

That's how BFL strings people along with fake schedules.

https://forums.butterflylabs.com/announcements/692-bfl-asic-status.html#post13172

It should not take more than 24 hours to bump all our chips and get them to the packaging facility, where it will take another ~24 hours (probably less) to package them

Don't you love the "probably less" thrown in there just to give people hope when there's no way in hell it'll ever happen.

[NEO2012]

Also, keep in mind that BFL has touted the ability to produce 400 devices a day in the very near future. At that rate you could probably order a device and receive it within a few days. What that also means is a serious dillution of existing and future rig profitability, and in my opinion, huge price drops. Avalon and ASICMiner may not be able to compete in a price war with BFL, but BFL may end up having one with themselves if sales start to slow.

If BFL actually shipped 400 60 GH/s units per day, they would be adding 24TH/s to the network each day.  In 3 months, the network hashpower would be 2200 PH/s (plus all the other ASIC supplier shipments).

Your super SC would be generating less than 0.1 BTC per day.  And you can expect that ASIC suppliers would be dropping their prices so they could continue to sell hardware, further eroding your income over time.

Of course, BFL's track history makes it much more likely that they will struggle to ship 10 units / day.  In terms of placing a new order, that means you can expect delivery sometime after the next block reward halving.   

i couldnt of said it better  if u order today by the time u receive ur unit u will be making 0.01 btc a day
taking years=2-4 to recopup ur investment