Unlikely Bitcoin price will ever surpass $5,000

[drawingthesun]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

[deathcode]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

Where do you get those numbers???

100 billion is not that much money for a medium size country and we are talking about a currency that the world can use! ANYONE connected to the internet can use bitcoin so please, provide a more elaborate explanation to your theory.

[mralbi]

Well, for sure we will not see the 5000 USD within the next weeks, but hopefully i am wrong ;-))


IMO it is a wrong assumption to say that it is not possible. The bitcoin price should NEVER be interpreted as "All bitcoins have the actual market value". A price of 5000 USD can in theory show up on an exchange when nobody buys nor sells bitcoins at all, except for me selling to myself a very low amount 0.001 Bitcoin for 5 USD.

So in other words, the price alone does not tell you anything abuot the "magnitude" or "importance" of the currency, as usually the biggest amount is usually simply not traded.

[drawingthesun]

If its possible to have a secondary currency worth 1 trillion that would be awesome, but doesn't that mean some national currencies would have to take a back seat, and that seems unlikely right?

According to http://au.answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20110104155108AAUzBen there is 260 billion Australian dollars in circulation, and Australia is a very strong and powerful economy. I can't imagine Bitcoin being worth more than the AUD

[smoothie]

Obviously OP is not taking into account INFLATION.

$100 billion could buy you some eggs in a few years lol

[drawingthesun]

Obviously OP is not taking into account INFLATION.

$100 billion could buy you some eggs in a few years lol

This is true, of course what ever $100 billion would be worth in 20 years.

[Bit_Happy]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

[drawingthesun]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

[evolve]

No, and it is.

[Bit_Happy]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

Learn from history:

[evolve]

That was post-WW1 Germany, not the US.

[mralbi]

$5,000 long-term?
You can count on much higher, since the Dollar will be trash.

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

as long as inflation is only meassured with this "consumer price index" crap governments can pretend it is around 2 or 3 percent. It is just crap, as the entities "creating" the money (BANKS) will not buy plasma TVs, cars, holiday trips or whatever consumer stuff, but they will buy certificates, debt papers, precious metals or stocks/derivates. THERE you can see the real inflation ;-)


PS: you can also see it in the official figures already... when a computer hardware is getting 10 times faster they will artificially calculate the statistics that way that the price has lowered by factor 10 to "compensate" for increased fuel and/or electricity prices

[piramida]

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

More like 5 years. Yes, four digits is where my first sell orders are. buy at two digits, sell at four, double your digits investment

[Nagato]

M0 is the wrong metric to use.

All the money in circulation and in our bank accounts, money which is used to trade for actual goods/services is M3. Everything in the world is not priced according to M0(which is only of relevance/accessible to banks and the Central Bank). As long as M3 does not collapse, you should price things in M3. If M3 collapses, the currency will be toast anyway as all banks will go under and people lose faith in the currency/finanical system.

[sgbett]

That was post-WW1 Germany, not the US.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3mxVjB4aqI

[drawingthesun]

So many of you have confidence that Bitcoin could be a 1 Trillion dollar economy? (in today's value)

Also lost coins will add to the scarcity.

[josiahgarber]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

Ask yourself this question.  Is it possible Bitcoin could become more valuable than the company Apple?   I think so.  And if it does it will be worth much more than 5,000 per coin.

Here's another thought.  Why is the U.S. Dollar better than Bitcoin?

[josiahgarber]

I'll be honest here, is the USD really doing that badly? I thought inflation was only around 2-3%

Yes the USD is doing terrible especially from an investment or savings perspective.  Inflation of ~2-3% is terrible, but real inflation is much higher I would estimate in the 5-7% range annually.  Governement CPI numbers are cooked numbers.  Check out the explanation at ShadowStats.com

[Spaceman_Spiff]

That was post-WW1 Germany, not the US.

Zimbabwean president in 1988 : "That was post-WW1 Germany, not Zimbabwe."

[Anon136]

If each Bitcoin was worth $5,000, then the size of the Bitcoin market cap/circulation would be about $100Billion which feels like a upper limit.

Any higher than $100,000,000,000 would mean Bitcoin is being used as a national currency which seems unlikely.

Does anyone else feel that $5,000 per coin would be the upperlimit, maybe taking 20 years to reach?

there is no upper limit imposed here by the amount of capital that COULD flow into the bitcoin network. One potential upper limit though is provided by the fact that it would become almost imposable for the bitcoin system as it exists today to scale up to > 100 transactions per second. If bitcoin had 100billion in capitalization than there would be demand for far more than 100 tx per second. This would cause transaction fees to incrase to the point where bitcoins would become impractical for day to day trade.