Your valuation of bitcoin in the year 2033

[blackreplica]

A little survey I read (and that was posted here not too long ago) put the average age of a bitcoin owner at right about 30 years old. Assuming it's true, lets add 20 years to it to give us the end of our investment horizon, giving us the year 2033. Most of us will be either about to retire, retired, or dare I say it, dead and gone by no later than that year.

How much do you think BTC will be worth then? Unfortunately we are constrained by the fact that we do not know what global currency bitcoin will be benchmarked against in future (it may not be USD, hell, BTC may be the de-facto global currency by then even) but for the sake of argument lets just use BTC/USD

I would like to think of this poll as an indicator of the how the bitcoin-savvy community thinks of where this new digital currency is headed, at any given point in time

You are allowed to change your vote in this poll when your opinion changes, so do so frequently. If everyone does this, the result of the poll will evolve to reflect changing market conditions, which makes it all the more interesting to follow

If this thread lasts to 2033 we can even start seeing who was right in the end   (post your initial vote below, changing your vote in the poll above in the year 2032 to predict the price in 2033 doesn't give you true credit!)

I think BTC in 2013 will be popular enough for everyone in the world to know and use from time to time, but not enough to create a new world order. Thus I value BTC at about 5K USD per, by 2033. Feel free to post your vote and reasons below so the discussion keeps going.

I reserve the right to change my opinion later

[Cubic Earth]

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging.  I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

[Hyena]

fuck I read 2013 instead of 2033 and chose 100 - 1000

[blackreplica]

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging.  I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

It's interesting you mention Bitcoin 2.0. IMO if a new version bitcoin was to succeed, it would have to be based on it's previous version and allow some form of backwards compatibility or wealth transfer from Bitcoin 1.0, just like with USB - USB2 - USB3. In which case, it could be argued that Bitcoin would still have a value then, as opposed to 0. Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now, then I would agree with your 2033 valuation though.

I guess one could argue that anyone voting for a nonzero valuation of bitcoin in 2033 is already in the 'All' crowd, as opposed to 'Nothing'. The final price they vote on (assuming it's nonzero) would probably reflect only how prevalent bitcoin would be in 2033 society 

[blackreplica]

fuck I read 2013 instead of 2033 and chose 100 - 1000

You can change your vote at anytime

[kjlimo]

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging.  I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

Good point, you should buy some here:

https://vircurex.com/

I think PPC has the largest new thing to offer to the cryptocurrency world; however, the market hasn't switched much over yet.

Also, this is a useful link for monitoring the Market CAPs for some of the alt chains:

http://dustcoin.com/

[piramida]

Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now

Hm? What is totally new about LTC, I'll have to ask? LTC is like a brandless Coke, absolutely the same thing only without brand recognition, and costs many times less.

[Cubic Earth]

I don't understand that rational behind any vote between $1 and $5,000.  We are talking 20 years out, people.  BTC is going to either grow or die.  It will not just hover at $100 indefinitely, or even $1,000 for that matter.  If you think it will, please present your scenario that would support it.

[blackreplica]

I don't understand that rational behind any vote between $1 and $5,000.  We are talking 20 years out, people.  BTC is going to either grow or die.  It will not just hover at $100 indefinitely, or even $1,000 for that matter.  If you think it will, please present your scenario that would support it.

Something like gold. Mostly a store of wealth, minor transactional value. Been around long enough so that it won't disappear. Isn't powerful enough to keep growing into infinity.

[psybits]

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously. But I suppose then you could have a hash rate which could withstand quantum computing efforts to decode it (perhaps formulated by some kind of artificial intelligence). Maybe that would be Bitcoin 2.0?

[drawingthesun]

Already, the "All" or "Nothing" dichotomy is emerging.  I went with "Nothing" because I think Bitcoin will have turned in Bitcoin 2.0 or higher by then, and this version will become a dead end fork.

It's interesting you mention Bitcoin 2.0. IMO if a new version bitcoin was to succeed, it would have to be based on it's previous version and allow some form of backwards compatibility or wealth transfer from Bitcoin 1.0, just like with USB - USB2 - USB3. In which case, it could be argued that Bitcoin would still have a value then, as opposed to 0. Unless by Bitcoin 2.0 you mean a totally new cryptocurrency like LTC now, then I would agree with your 2033 valuation though.

I guess one could argue that anyone voting for a nonzero valuation of bitcoin in 2033 is already in the 'All' crowd, as opposed to 'Nothing'. The final price they vote on (assuming it's nonzero) would probably reflect only how prevalent bitcoin would be in 2033 society 

If another crypto-currency wanted to take the spotlight and move Bitcoin out the way, one of the best things would be to allow for wealth transfer. (Perhaps creating a fork of the blockchain as a type of genesis block for Bitcoin 2.0)

[piramida]

the day we'll see a QC prototype that is theoretically capable of cracking sha256 is the day the encryption would be upped. long before it will have any impact

[julius]

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously.

Well, if such computer is designed, I think Bitcoin would be the least important of our problems. The entire finantial system would be in jeopardise.

[piramida]

I think the greatest threat to Bitcoin on this kind of time scale is the emergence of quantum computing or some other method which allows the Bitcoin cryptography to be cracked. Seriously.

Well, if such computer is designed, I think Bitcoin would be the least important of our problems. The entire finantial system would be in jeopardise.

But bitcoin will be the entire financial system by then

[sgravina]

I traveled to the year 2033 to get a definitive answer to the question.  I met myself and asked nicely.  Unfortunately I am quite the asshole in 2033.  It's a side effect of time travel.  Future me stole my wallet and spent it on drugs.  Then called the police and accused me of insulting Connecticut.   I spent a several weeks in a Connecticut dungeon until my time "Vacation" wore off and I returned home.

Nobody in the future talks about bitcoins.  While imprisoned awaiting trial I watched a lot of TV.  I saw no mention of bitcoins.  Drugs are legal in 2033 and most TV shows revolve around drugs, preparing drugs, using drugs, buying drugs, correct drug manners, etc..  I can't explain it but most of this TV is actually quite good, and I wasn't on drugs.  They don't let you have drugs in prison because it makes the torture ineffective.

My best guess is that nobody in the future knows about bitcoins.  I didn't see any credit cards either.  They were buying their drugs with cash, Connecticut dollars.  My 2013 US dollars were accepted too, at an exchange rate of about 5:1.

No more time travel for me.  I kind of wish I had looked up my children, but with all my problems I didn't think of it and future me didn't show the least bit of consideration.

[piramida]

nice story but it looks like you brought some of that legal drugs back home

[blackreplica]

Cool story bro but you forgot to bring this back with ya (you were probably too doped up to remember but I forgive you)

[KTE]

Look back to 1993 and think how little of what we do now you were able to predict.

[piramida]

Look back to 1993 and think how little of what we do now you were able to predict.

nobody knew that by 2013 looking at digits on a screen would be the preferred way for most humans to earn their living

[josiahgarber]

My guess would be somewhere around $500,000 per bitcoin or Zero.