50 million Bitcoin users by the end of 2013?

[jonitas]

I found the following chart interesting. If Bitcoin would be adopted as quickly as the Internet, there would be about 50 million bitcoin users by the end of this year.

https://i.imgur.com/EXRSNCyl.jpg

[Gabi]

Are they really comparing a technology like the phone or the radio with ANGRY BIRDS? Is this a joke?

[DeathAndTaxes]

Simple answer is no.

Their 4 years to 50M for internet is a dubious claim.  The first two nodes in the ARPANET which eventually would become the internet was in 1969.  I am pretty sure they didn't mean there were 50 million users in 1973.  Likely they are using some artificial "start of the commercial" internet and counting 4 years from there.

I would also point out that while Facebook grew rapidly the concept of social media took roughly a decade from the first sites to facebook hitting millions of users.  I have long believed Bitcoin will be no different.

[misterbigg]

Right now there are what, a million unique public keys in the block chain?

[paraipan]

Are they really comparing a technology like the phone or the radio with ANGRY BIRDS? Is this a joke?

Yep, seems so.

Compare Oranges and Apples: check

[Gabi]

Gangnam style video has over a billion of views in less than a year, that technology was adopted very quickly 

[RodeoX]

That is interesting. But I wonder how they might differ in adoption also. For example, many people were aware of the internet for years before connecting. With bitcoin it seems like many people go from goggling to some ownership in weeks. The internet was also becoming something you "can't live without", while bitcoin is an option for payment among many.
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[misterbigg]

Let's not kid ourselves. Money is arguable the single most important thing in the entire world. Everyone deals with it on practically a daily basis, and with few exceptions it is needed to live. Most people would rightfully be extremely skeptical of a new form of money especially one that is not "backed by a government" or one that has "no intrinsic value".

The growth in users of Bitcoin will be directly tied to the extent to which people will be willing to overcome an entire lifetime of currency bias and accept something that is totally new and opaque as money. That is to say, that it will be slow. I'm not saying that Bitcoin won't eventually "win" but 50 million users by the end of 2013 ain't happening.

This doesn't mean that the price can't follow a parabolic trajectory though. It can, and will, and is.

[vdragon]

Gangnam style video has over a billion of views in less than a year, that technology was adopted very quickly 

 Yeah, but at the point when its rise was at 250k, everyone was talking about will it reach million, and it was like a game, everyone clicked to se what it is. Bitcoin is money, people are not so easy on valuables

[Gabi]

Gangnam style video has over a billion of views in less than a year, that technology was adopted very quickly 

 Yeah, but at the point when its rise was at 250k, everyone was talking about will it reach million, and it was like a game, everyone clicked to se what it is. Bitcoin is money, people are not so easy on valuables

Yup, wich is why this chart is pointless. Comparing the phone with angry birds is nonsense.

[TooCasual]

This doesn't mean that the price can't follow a parabolic trajectory though. It can, and will, and is.

Nope. Not parabolic trajectory (unless you mean inverse para?)  


How about rising almost exponentially in the last two months?


Those curves don't even remotely resemble each other.

[misterbigg]

Nope. Not parabolic (unless you mean inverse para?)

I mean parabolic as in having the shape of a parabola.

[TooCasual]

Nope. Not parabolic (unless you mean inverse para?)

I mean parabolic as in having the shape of a parabola.

Lol, gotcha. It's all good.

TC

[jonitas]

Anyways, the Internet might not have reached 50 million users after 4 years, but the point here is that technology is generally accepted faster than it used to. I don't think it will take Bitcoin as long as the Internet to reach a critical mass. At a certain point a lot of people will think they are missing the train and will open a wallet.

Lets not forget all the new users who order something from thebitcoinstore and tell their friends about how they saved money using Bitcoin. And that's just one example, there are a lot of very talented and entrepreneurial people within the bitcoin community who will make us reach 50 million people faster than anyone thinks.

[Severian]

That is to say, that it will be slow.

I think we're going to see a shake-up in peoples' faith in fiat in the next year or two. Now that a viable alternative to fiat exists, we could see a quick adoption rate if a critical mass lose faith in the central banks in a short period of time. Bitcoin price highs seem to be a leading indicator of future adoption as this past rally illustrates.

[Tomatocage]

50M Bitcoin users.. Even after the last coin is mined, that's less than a half BTC per user.

[misterbigg]

I think we're going to see a shake-up in peoples' faith in fiat in the next year or two.

We will see a shake up but it will take place over the course of at least a decade or two. The global econonmy is HUGE, it will take at least a generation to unwind.

[DeathAndTaxes]

50M Bitcoin users.. Even after the last coin is mined, that's less than a half BTC per user.

What you talking about that 420 coins per person (420 mBTC that is).

If that happens I think I will make a platinum 1 BTC coin.  "Wow you got a WHOLE Bitcoin".
Or maybe to be future proof it should say 1,000,0000 microBitcoins.

[greyhawk]

Simple answer is no.

Their 4 years to 50M for internet is a dubious claim.  The first two nodes in the ARPANET which eventually would become the internet was in 1969.  I am pretty sure they didn't mean there were 50 million users in 1973.  Likely they are using some artificial "start of the commercial" internet and counting 4 years from there.

They're likely confusing WWW with the Internet again. Happens all the time.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Simple answer is no.

Their 4 years to 50M for internet is a dubious claim.  The first two nodes in the ARPANET which eventually would become the internet was in 1969.  I am pretty sure they didn't mean there were 50 million users in 1973.  Likely they are using some artificial "start of the commercial" internet and counting 4 years from there.

They're likely confusing WWW with the Internet again. Happens all the time.

Probably.  Did WWW grow that fast.  It "launched" in 1990.  50 million users by 1994?  I guess it is plausible although I don't recall it being that popular.