Fair points given there so i'll try to explain a bit more.
The longer the timeframe you're noticing wyckoff rules on, the bigger will be the probability that the book outcome will come to fruition. And that's not critisizing wyckoff in anyway, that's the same truth for every trading setup.
TOTALLY agree. TOTALLY. I'm ALWAYS checking out the big picture first on the Weekly. Sometimes the monthly [Depending on if there is enough history for a monthly]. Some alt coins don't have enough "history." Especially, ZEROCASH. Yes, the bigger the timeframe the bigger the "probability." I've found, through analysis, the "probability" does diminish if one ONLY used lower time frames. However, that's why I mentioned the 80%. BUT, that's also why I have other lines of resistance to assist. No, it does not always pan out in the lower time frames. I NEVER go below 1 hour on the chart with Wyckoff. NEVER.
Moreover, I don't really agree with the picture you are drawing. Composite man doesn't build position to make a quick buck. it takes times and effort.
COMPLETELY agree there. However, I was NOT indicating that in that chart. I'm not getting how you're drawing that conclusion? For instance, SOME PROFIT TAKING was enacted at the $910 to $860 range FROM ALL THE COINS ACCUMULATED IN THE $700's. Like you said, "It takes TIME and effort." Did I imply he sold ALL his coins to make a quick buck somewhere? I really don't think I did. If so, I did not intend to convey that. I'll try to be more specific next time. You can see in the $860 to $900 range where CM would keep that range while profit taking with some of his coins before continuing with more accumulation before breaking out. I've provided a chart below to show the VERY long accumulation phase in the upper $600's to the upper $700's. Why can't he take some profits at the $860 to $910 range from all the "effort" he put into accumulating coins over "time?" He also accomplished some Shaking Out at that $910 to $860 range before continuing to where he wants to take us for the BIG profit taking? Don't mind my notes scrunched up. I simply wanted to show the long drawn out time of accumulation in the upper $600's to $700's.
The accumulation went back even further than what is pictured. I believe what I've provided in this image is enough though.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/2W3Ge7ff/Nevertheless, on your chart, he accumulates at few dollars below the point in which he sold, which would make it unprofitable including endogenous and exogenous trading costs.
I think my previous explanation addresses this.
I do believe that the difficulties in using wyckoff in such short time frame, not to monitor previously builded position, but to trade on signals, is overwhelming and needs anticipation.
I ALWAYS monitor the WEEKLY and DAILY. I will even analyze the MONTHLY as well if beneficial. I never implied that but I appreciate you clarifying that for other readers who may be unaware.
Wyckoff never advocated anticipation and always waited for signals. That's the issue that happens when reading adapted books by other autors (that's why I read before wyckoff books).
TOTALLY agree. Weis, did not promote heavily on "Anticipation" either. He too advocates waiting for signals. Even Wyckoff maintained an open mind rather than preconceived ideas based on his rules with emphasis on price range rather than a fixed price, with emphasis on volume of course, as well as emphasis on positions to close your bets. He most certainly knew the importance of trend lines, support lines/ resistance lines and channels. However, I've come to find how valuable of a tool those can be when used at lower time frames WHILE keeping the larger trend in focus from the Weekly.
It's worked for me. I've been pleased with the results. Maybe its been only pure luck. Time will tell. But still, I've been pleased with the results.
Regarding difficulties on drawing such a picture on small timeframe, even wyckoff was using his wave chart to picture points of supply and demands.
TOTALLY agree. I do take that into account. I'm only trying to encourage an open mind rather than having a preconceived idea.
Anyway, you are free to trade using your set-ups, but i'd like to know if it does respect price objective sometimes with the scenario you picture.
Sure, I'll keep you updated.
EDIT: Wyckoff noticed PATTERNS, especially on the weekly, that would pan out over a time frame under certain conditions many times over and it rewarded him and those who followed him quite well. I'm thankful for his contributions to the trading community. It has truly stood the test of time. I would say his work lays the foundation for those who want to trade to build upon. However, not every house is built the same way with the same materials. IF every house was built the same way, the composite man would have a field day. Ya know?
I simply used his "foundation" to build upon and I'm putting additions on the house [So to speak] with a remodel here and there to find and anticipate patterns in bull and/or bear trends. Wyckoff's house was certainly built with a traditional decor where I prefer a more modern decor. Still a work in progress...
Cheers,
ProwdClown
EDIT: I have an idea in mind to provide an example of what I'm doing in smaller time frame WHILE keeping the BIG time frame (over all trend for that cycle) in mind. It helps me trade with a bit more confidence knowing the high probability of what's about to occur. I'm sleepy....
Will work on the example and post here when I'm well rested and have more time.
EDIT: I know you're a fan of Wyckoff. I obviously am as well. I only want to encourage you to maintain an open mind and checkout Weis' book and his modern adaption. Can't hurt. It's only floating ideas around. You might find a few things in his book and end up saying, "Now why didn't I think of that?"
