DO PANIC!

[oakpacific]

oh trolling with "actual money" on bitcoin forums, so sweet and new

sorry i can see how that phrase can offend people here. i mean to say (i'll cut out my sarcasm i know it doesn't translate well) they're not really suckers because they still made money. Suckers lose money and people who sold actually made money so they are not suckers. Is this clear

You might not believe it, but I could assure you that most of those participated in this panic sell did not get in at low prices like $2 or $5, they most probably bought in the frenzy of the runup from 2011 ATH to $49, many of them lose money or made very little. Had they gotten in at low prices, they should have already sold in the multiple "crashes"  we saw before. In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated.

[piramida]

Most of my coins are quietly lying motionless in my Armory offline wallet. Am I a strong hand?

You are a cold hand, sir!

[rpietila]

In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated.

Please explain the reasoning behind this.

[oakpacific]

In fact, if you try to analyze our previous "crashes", you will find that the higher the price, the smaller the volume of the dips, it's a sign of weak hands getting eliminated.

Please explain the reasoning behind this.

I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands".

[rpietila]

I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands".

Can be, but you can also measure volume in USD, in which case it is now at ATH.

IF I were a large early hand, say starting with 25 000 BTC in January 2011, I would have 2 options:

- Gradual selling to the strength in order to diversify and/or pay for living

- Strategic position to ripple out at certain time/price intervals

The choice would be according to my fiat wealth. If BTC is my only asset, I would sell parts of it when I have a chance. If I have $1 million other assets, I would play strategic, determined to be one of the top players in the coming cryptocurrency world, perhaps acquiring more in dips. 

NOW, the former is a weak hand, because he has no intention to ever buy. The only question is when to sell.

The latter is a strong hand. He has no intention to sell except when he feels the greater good (eg. bitcoin adaptation or orderly price appreciation) requires it. He may even buy, and can buy, significant volumes if that is required.

I feel that there has been rather many opportunities for weak hands to sell during the runup. This I why I believe now is the time for strong hands to terminate the upleg, for the greater good (also making fiat in the progress that can be deployed back later or used for other purposes during the following months). It is healthy that we do not go into extreme to a bubble.

I tend to think, weak hands alone cannot yet make the price crash. The strong ones need to be willing to sell also. I think they should, even if they only profit from $40->$30, stabilising the value of bitcoin around the previous ATH is a service to all. After 2 months we can start a new, healthy rise where everybody smiles.

[oakpacific]

I have no conclusive evidence of course, but the volume of the dips on the way up from $14 to now are significantly(several times) smaller than those at $2-$4, $7.22 and $15.4, if the driving force behind the dips is rational people who bought at low prices taking profits, there doesn't seem to be any reason why they should sell more at low prices, and less at high prices. So my guess is that most of those who participated in the selloff actually bought at prices close to then current prices, as the price went up, these small-time buyers were able to buy less and less, and sell less and less, with most of the coins held either by bulls with strong convictions since the low price or people with deep pockets, thus the smaller downward volume. that's what I would call "elimination of the weaker hands".

Can be, but you can also measure volume in USD, in which case it is now at ATH.

IF I were a large early hand, say starting with 25 000 BTC in January 2011, I would have 2 options:

- Gradual selling to the strength in order to diversify and/or pay for living

- Strategic position to ripple out at certain time/price intervals

The choice would be according to my fiat wealth. If BTC is my only asset, I would sell parts of it when I have a chance. If I have $1 million other assets, I would play strategic, determined to be one of the top players in the coming cryptocurrency world, perhaps acquiring more in dips. 

NOW, the former is a weak hand, because he has no intention to ever buy. The only question is when to sell.

The latter is a strong hand. He has no intention to sell except when he feels the greater good (eg. bitcoin adaptation or orderly price appreciation) requires it. He may even buy, and can buy, significant volumes if that is required.

I feel that there has been rather many opportunities for weak hands to sell during the runup. This I why I believe now is the time for strong hands to terminate the upleg, for the greater good (also making fiat in the progress that can be deployed back later or used for other purposes during the following months). It is healthy that we do not go into extreme to a bubble.

I tend to think, weak hands alone cannot yet make the price crash. The strong ones need to be willing to sell also. I think they should, even if they only profit from $40->$30, stabilising the value of bitcoin around the previous ATH is a service to all. After 2 months we can start a new, healthy rise where everybody smiles.

I almost completely agree with you, although based on my own experience, all major Bitcoin crashes up to now consist of two waves of massive selloffs with a short period of dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, and the golden time window for the second, more massive wave is 12-24 hours after the bottom of the first wave, but I have not seen the second wave yet, of course there could be multiple reasons delaying it, it could still happen.

Besides that, many of the early adopters could be in purely because of luck or their technical prowess, yet have no experience with investment at all, most of these people, I believe, have been washed out in the crash of 2011, but we still can not rule out the possibility that one or two of them hold out until now to cash out.

[rpietila]

I almost completely agree with you, although based on my own experience, all major Bitcoin crashes up to now consist of two waves of massive selloffs with a short period of dead cat bounce sandwiched in between, and the golden time window for the second, more massive wave is 12-24 hours after the bottom of the first wave, but I have not seen the second wave yet, of course there could be multiple reasons delaying it, it could still happen.

Besides that, many of the early adopters could be in purely because of luck or their technical prowess, yet have no experience with investment at all, most of these people, I believe, have been washed out in the crash of 2011, but we still can not rule out the possibility that one or two of them hold out until now to cash out.

In other crashes, the initial burst of the tech bubble in March-April 2000, for instance, there can be yoyo-ing between a support line (1/3-1/2 of the ATH) and the high, but a recurring failure to make a new high. In your words, multiple dead cat bounces. Bitcoin is older now, I would give it 72 hours from the initial crash to start a new one. This weekend is going to be interesting. If someone would aim to crash it, he would wait till there is no powder in the exchanges.

The early adopters who accumulated significant amounts of coin did it for a purpose and it is naive to believe they just want a quick buck. The ones after a quick buck sold so much in 2011 that they can still live off that, and there is not much need for them to sell more.

My conclusion why this crash will be short lived ($50 will be beaten in 6 months for sure no matter what, likely in 2-3 months) is that:
- Ultra-weak hands (entry in 2013, bought too much and/or on margin, don't understand/believe BTC) are so few, and they don't hold much. They will shed the coins in a few weeks, hopefully don't lose too much.
- Shorting is not widespread and in any case, requires actual btc to be borrowed, also price is not that much above any long-term growth trends.
- Healthy new buying from the users of services that use bitcoin as a medium of exchange has just started and will not stall because of price.
- Even if some strong hands speculatively sell/short, they understand all of the above and want to buy back soon, and not to play with fire.

[rpietila]

Well, still almost completely agree with you , there are early adopters who were not after anything, but played with it for a period just for fun, and accumulated a huge amount, that pizza guy is one example. For the rest, yeah, they may not be in for a quick buck, but whether they could survive the incredible pressure during the 2011 crash and not sold out, is another thing, after all, bitcoin had depreciated 16 times from the top in Nov 2011, it's plausible that many would expect it to just fall into oblivion.

Thank you for agreeing with me. If, however, everyone did, I could not make any money in the markets...

I mean, I invest $100 of my time and money to mine 10000 BTC. Then I sell during the runup (very weak hand example):

5000 when they start trading at $.10 => +500 USD
3000 when they are in dollar parity => +3000 USD
then I am so much in the black and it rises so fast that I don't sell anything until..
1500 after the 6/2011 crash at $10 => +15000 USD.

Price goes down to $2. Would I sell the rest for $1000. Nah. I already made $18400 and who knows if it will rise or likely I just forgot about the thing. Selling completely out is not rational for something that you think has even a chance to change the world. After all we are talking about .0024% of how many will ever exist. You know these things if you were in in 2010.



 

[oakpacific]

Well, still almost completely agree with you , there are early adopters who were not after anything, but played with it for a period just for fun, and accumulated a huge amount, that pizza guy is one example. For the rest, yeah, they may not be in for a quick buck, but whether they could survive the incredible pressure during the 2011 crash and not sold out, is another thing, after all, bitcoin had depreciated 16 times from the top in Nov 2011, it's plausible that many would expect it to just fall into oblivion.

Thank you for agreeing with me. If, however, everyone did, I could not make any money in the markets...

I mean, I invest $100 of my time and money to mine 10000 BTC. Then I sell during the runup (very weak hand example):

5000 when they start trading at $.10 => +500 USD
3000 when they are in dollar parity => +3000 USD
then I am so much in the black and it rises so fast that I don't sell anything until..
1500 after the 6/2011 crash at $10 => +15000 USD.

Price goes down to $2. Would I sell the rest for $1000. Nah. I already made $18400 and who knows if it will rise or likely I just forgot about the thing. Selling completely out is not rational for something that you think has even a chance to change the world. After all we are talking about .0024% of how many will ever exist. You know these things if you were in in 2010.



 

That's a totally reasonable estimation, but the number of people in this market who could not understand the importance of positions is astonishing, I have seen too many examples of people getting all in/all out.

[Vladimir]

I am just going to have to repeat OP now.

DO PANIC! The coins need to move to stronger hands.

The sooner most of the suckers part with their coins the sooner we all can move on to 3-4 digit range.

This occasion (BITCOIN IS HACKED i.e. miners figuring out whether they should upgrade to new version of software or not) is a perfect opportunity to dump all your coins. Do panic and dump all your coins now.

[anon2301]

SELL SELL SELL

[Herodes]

I am just going to have to repeat OP now.

DO PANIC! The coins need to move to stronger hands.

The sooner most of the suckers part with their coins the sooner we all can move on to 3-4 digit range.

This occasion (BITCOIN IS HACKED i.e. miners figuring out whether they should upgrade to new version of software or not) is a perfect opportunity to dump all your coins. Do panic and dump all your coins now.

Vladimir, do you need to make it more apparent that you're a greedy man ?

[Vladimir]

LOL.

One who panics the first, panics the best. Just saying...

[zyphus]

hes right! also they selling bout 7.5 k bit coins before midnight PST...

[BitPirate]

- Ultra-weak hands (entry in 2013, bought too much and/or on margin, don't understand/believe BTC) are so few, and they don't hold much. They will shed the coins in a few weeks, hopefully don't lose too much.

If people bought in recently, at relative highs (and it looks like a great many have done), why would they be weak hands? Newbies != idiots. If you buy in high, you sure as hell don't sell low. I don't think you give people enough credit.

[zyphus]

Im sorry to hear that, check out whats goin on in speculation right now... substantial chunk of coin is getting sold tonight it seems,not sure tho, they moved or deleted the original topic : /

[Vladimir]

- Ultra-weak hands (entry in 2013, bought too much and/or on margin, don't understand/believe BTC) are so few, and they don't hold much. They will shed the coins in a few weeks, hopefully don't lose too much.

If people bought in recently, at relative highs (and it looks like a great many have done), why would they be weak hands? Newbies != idiots. If you buy in high, you sure as hell don't sell low. I don't think you give people enough credit.

I would agree. Lots of strong hands with serious money have entered the market recently. If anything members of "overclocker generation" are the ones who are week hands and dumping their coins the first chance their got all the way since 0.3$ and 2$.

[BitPirate]

Im sorry to hear that, check out whats goin on in speculation right now... substantial chunk of coin is getting sold tonight it seems,not sure tho, they moved or deleted the original topic : /

You mean, you posted some lies and fabricated links?

Stop it!

[Elwar]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

[Frankie Delaney]

SELL SELL SELL!!!

Done! every bitcoin i own sold at $77. I hope you didn't lead me astray.