So, are we going up or down?

[Merralea]

Right for sure. The rest is less certain.

[baggyp]

Stuck between 40-45 for the past 10 hours

I want to heard the voodoo from people... what's the next move? UP or DOWN?

Yes.

Omnidirectional price movement

I lol'd. 

[baggyp]

Stuck between 40-45 for the past 10 hours

I want to heard the voodoo from people... what's the next move? UP or DOWN?

Yes.

Omnidirectional price movement

Where are all the trolls to predict crashes and millionaires overnight when you need them?

Shaving their beards under rickety bridges all over the world.

[baggyp]

If Mt. Gox can keep it's shit together, up.  It seems people stop buying when the lag hits, but people get scared about not knowing what's happening and sell to be on the safe side.  I blame Gox for bringing us below $45 again.

I agree! It was rather terrifying to watch honestly. I was seeing the buy wall disappear and the price was dropping dollars per mash of my f5 key. Fucking GOX! I think alot of people were waiting to see where it would slow down before buying back in, and the lag on top of that was causing the support to be nearly non-existent. Thank goodness for scalpers! 

[afbitcoins]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

[proudhon]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

[adamstgBit]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

single digits!  
no way
10$ is just to round a number.  

if the drop continues i will be buying in a little in a few weeks, and then buy more and more as prices fall.

[Melbustus]

Stuck between 40-45 for the past 10 hours

I want to heard the voodoo from people... what's the next move? UP or DOWN?

Yes.

What a committed answer!!!

His answer was definitive. You just didn't phrase the question correctly. Should've used an XOR, not an OR.

[rpietila]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

We rallied from $13 to $49, a +277% move in 2 months. It went parabolic in the end. So regardless if we believe in the long term or not, there is a significant (in may estimation: 70%) chance that we enter correction mode and do not make a new ATH in at least a month, probably 1-6 months.

The price has several target/support levels though, in descending order:

$35 first fibonacci retracement (13+.61*(49-13)) weak
$32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)
$31 half retracement (13+.5*(49-13)) weak
$30 round number weak-medium
$27 second fib. retracement (13+.61^2*(49-13)) medium-strong <- target/support
$26 50-dma (vol.weighted moving average) medium <- target
$25 round number weak-medium
$22 third fib. retracement (13+.61^3*(49-13)) medium-strong
$20 round number weak-medium
$15 high of 2012 medium-strong
$13 base strong

I see rather clear target in $26-$27 area. Support starts at $35 and intensifies in $32 and the target area. There is rather little support actually in the vast area between Pirate high $15 and $25. Maybe that is why many speculator aim to buy from there.

A safe bet would to start buyback already from $32. Other approaches are too risky if you plan on having BTC to sell also next year

[phantastisch]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

Oh proudhon ...

[uhoh]

Hooray to Proudhon for being the guy ropes on the tent that is Bitcoin.

 

[oakpacific]

I think we'll probably be going down for a little while yet, but only quite gradually.

Maybe.  The order book is beginning to flip around.  The number of BTCs up for sale is up over 100k and it's probably going to continue to grow as the price moves further down.  The big players have set a new direction now, and it isn't up.  It might seem gradual now, but it will accelerate.  Single digits is very realistic.

Oh proudhon ...

Yeah, the big players want it down, it's silly me, the small time player, who 2 days ago spent $10M to buy overpriced bitcoins, now I just want to kick myself....

[zby]

What price it needs to break to eliminate the 'dead cat bounce' possibility?

[piramida]

50 would be a good start

[zby]

Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way.  At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it?  So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.

[rpietila]

Yeah - maybe I formulated it the wrong way.  At what price would a 'dead cat bounce' be improbable? I've heard the usual retrace for a dead cat is 80% isn't it?  So it was around 45 - broken, but not definitively.

Depends on whether you use single trades, daily close or vwa...

I would put it this way: A decisive volume above $50 pretty much eliminates the major crash scenario. Then we would either resume bulltrend or enter a consolidation around $50.

I would be very wary for anything below that. Yes, trades over $45 reduce the probability of crash scenario but I would not buy now. That we failed to take over the level 18 hours ago is definitely bearish.

2 hours ago it looked doomed, ready to crash through $40. But is now recovered to $43. Not too late to go short


IF rise to $45 and strong but not too hasty action there, we could avert the crash.

IF downward action in $41-$44, big probability for another flashcrash come weekend.

IF sudden rise to $50, bull trap (->crash)

IF immediate crash, well

No matter what, if the strong hands decide to sell, they do (->crash). There is absolutely not enough BTC in weak hands to warrant a classic bubble burst yet.

[1Pakis]

Not too late to go short

But I'm short from 45

[sgbett]

$32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)

I think 31.5 is more important, and very strong resistance.



32 was the bubble high, initial crash back to 23ish, when the double top came in it could not breach 31.5 (first chart)

This time round (second chart) we saw first approach to 31.5 on 22nd, price backed off and regrouped to make two solid tests of it on 26th and 27th, then break out on 28th. It was always going to be a hug break out with so much riding on it and so much inevitablity (if you are a permabull like me that is! hehe)

The spike back down was almost a token gesture of checking if it was resistance, with so much buying pressure pushing it straight back up. (As an aside I think we see that with the recent 'crash' which I actually see as more of a solid test of resistance levels. the fact it went no lower than 32 and came back *so* strongly is huge bullish signal for me.)

Of course I'm not a big beleiver in TA, other than it tends to work because people believe it does I'm more about the permabull fundamentals. The invitability of worldwide adoption, the enforced scarcity. I'm already on negative costs basis so I have a good chunk of coin that will never leave my wallet until it *is* money

[rpietila]

I agree with you. Noteworthy is that I see almost nothing between $15-$25 and absolutely nothing in the final blowoff above $35.

Between these is where the crash will stop, and in case you sold, I would be quick to buy as I don't expect it to last for long. (If it does, it is not a big deal to buy a little too early.)

$32 ATH of 2011 medium (not strong because it was not tested but just blasted through)

I think 31.5 is more important, and very strong resistance.



32 was the bubble high, initial crash back to 23ish, when the double top came in it could not breach 31.5 (first chart)

This time round (second chart) we saw first approach to 31.5 on 22nd, price backed off and regrouped to make two solid tests of it on 26th and 27th, then break out on 28th. It was always going to be a hug break out with so much riding on it and so much inevitablity (if you are a permabull like me that is! hehe)

The spike back down was almost a token gesture of checking if it was resistance, with so much buying pressure pushing it straight back up. (As an aside I think we see that with the recent 'crash' which I actually see as more of a solid test of resistance levels. the fact it went no lower than 32 and came back *so* strongly is huge bullish signal for me.)

Of course I'm not a big beleiver in TA, other than it tends to work because people believe it does I'm more about the permabull fundamentals. The invitability of worldwide adoption, the enforced scarcity. I'm already on negative costs basis so I have a good chunk of coin that will never leave my wallet until it *is* money

[oakpacific]

I absolutely don't like the idea of testing $32 again, to the extent that I may prefer the price to stay here for a month than to break out immediately over $50 and fall to $32. We really should bury this ghost from the past, if we can't get rid of it, people will not stop using it to judge if bitcoin is "overvalued", "in a bubble", while it's just in itself a meaningless price point.