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March 08, 2013, 12:13:44 PM |
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Yes, I think that prices will stabilize for some time. People don't want to see another bubble. Although it goes along with the Bitcoin news. The last one was triggered by a series of good news (mainly Mt.Gox goes North-America, but also Namecheap, Amazon, WinPoker, etc. all in a few hours apart).
When difficulty start to rise though (ASIC), I suspect there will be a dramatic raise in the BTC price, probably followed by another crash/correction. The difficulty won't have to raise so much though, that bubble will mainly be driven by the speculation and hype about imminent difficulty raise.
Also, throw in some major bad news and people will lose confidence in BTC and price will go down. BitInstant is just a glitch, and it was surrounded by good news. But what if it occurred while there were no other news, while the mediatic attention would have turned solely at it?
So, it resumes to this... If you want to know if BTC will raise or fall, you must not attempt to predict it directly, but you must instead be able to predict news surrounding Bitcoin. That is the driving factor in the end.
Look at it, the last raise from 35$ started to happen suddenly and sharply. Here on the forum, everyone was asking 'Why does the price raise suddenly?". I didn't saw much anyone writing that it could be due to the Mt.Gox news until a day or 2 later. People just looked at the prices rising and massively bought. There's always a reason behind every moves. And if people can't find it, and see that the price raise too quickly, then it leads to inevitable correction.
However, Bitcoin is much more mature than in 2011, and have a lot more attention and investors, so I don't think we'll see a crash like back then, unless something really bad happen to the Bitcoin network itself (which could be a possibility also... 51% attack, yet to be discovered vulnerability/security breach in the Bitcoin protocol itself, etc.).
So, always keep in mind that Bitcoin is play money. A curiosity. It may get you rich. But it can make you bankrupt. It's a game! If a breach of Bitcoin is found, there's no turning back. There's no one who will stop accounts in hope for better days. It will be game over. So invest wisely, always knowing that it's a gamble. Don't ever invest money/mining hardware/etc that you're not ready to lose.
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