where to learn more?

[WishIStartedSooner]

somebody offhandedly posted this comment in the speculation forum,

"Bitcoin is extremely volatile and traders are not seasoned, that is why I am starting to love it."

and i said, "you know what? that guy's right. i have no idea what im doing."

my ever changing plan currently is to compensate for this by only buying and never selling until i think bitcoin is maxed.

but it sure would be nice to have the knowledge and understanding i need to actually profit buying and selling short term.

so im appealing to the community.

what are some good places to learn short term speculation?

i wanna learn to read the charts, crunch the numbers, and figure out where the market is going, and why.

free and online would be great. but i cant say i wouldnt buy or download a book or two if needed. whats a great place to start?

[1715402995]

1715402995

[1715402995]

1715402995

[1715402995]

1715402995

[1715402995]

1715402995

[1715402995]

1715402995

[Stephen Gornick]

what are some good places to learn short term speculation?

i wanna learn to read the charts, crunch the numbers, and figure out where the market is going, and why.

Every market is different, and bitcoin is really an oddball that doesn't seem to follow any traditional trading patterns.

What does matter is the information (and disinformation) available.  And with this bitcoin is no different from the stock market or any other area where speculation reigns.

If on February 1st you knew ahead of everyone else that by now:
 - Bitcoin would be accepted by Reddit (for Reddit Gold),
 - and by Namecheap
 - and that v0.8 would be released and widely adopted with no issues, and it solves the #1 reported issue (long wait for initial blockchain sync),
 - and that 80% (by trading volume) of Mt. Gox's customer base would be getting "transitioned" over to a U.S.-based financial operator,
 - and that any Fulfillment By Amazon (FBA) online store could accept bitcoin for payment
 - and many of the other great developments occurring in Bitcoinland

then you might have considered all of these developments and gone all in ... betting the farm that these developments would boost the exchange rate ahead.

Some of these "surprises" were already expected due to rumors that had already been circling well ahead of the official announcements.  There have been other rumors that have not played out too though, so not each piece of information can be taken at face value.

But one way that information is "signaled" is through price.  So as the exchange rate rose in January up into the high teens on good volume and there was no apparent reason for it to do so, a rational trader might take note that others probably know something that has not yet been shared.  When some of the positive developments emerged officially (e.g., Reddit gold) those that bought on the rumor generally then will sell on the news [being released].  When the exchange rate continued rising after the official announcements, that meant there was probably even more information about other developments that hadn't been shared.  

Eventually when a significant development is announced (e.g., Fulfillment By Amazon support) and the exchange rate instead reverses and heads down, that probably means that finally most of the cards have been turned over.   Then you might look for trading volume collapsing (except when selling off) which means nobody else is buying aggressively and thus there appears to not be much trading occurring based on information that other's don't yet have.

I'm not a daytrader and don't do much arbitrage so I'm not someone who really cares much if there's a 5% move up or down that might make for a trading opportunity.   I generally try to add to a position after there's been a sharp selloff (still waiting) and also I try to lighten up a little when it seems that a rally fizzles out (like right now maybe).  It is easy to make a wrong call though but everyone makes mistakes and hopefully learns from them.

To get a feel as far as what's important, try hanging out in the IRC channels #bitcoin-otc, #bitcoin-assets, #mtgox and maybe some others.  Follow #bitcoin hashtag on Twitter.  To some people Google Alerts is crucial.  After a while you can start to know what information is signal and what information is noise.  There is value in taking that information and gaining knowledge from it, hopefully resulting in the ability to make better trading decisions.

[Bit_Happy]

I want to make some extra BTC. If this post is helpful please send a tip (any size is great), thank you.
15DYJpWJe9H1YofsNQbP9JEWWNn7XPZgbS

First, understand you are dealing with 3 different time frames: Long-term, Medium, and Short-term.
Long-term: This is the easiest if you have enough money. Just buy and hold, buy more on dips, and sell a bit when it spikes up.

Short-term:
"Fast trading" is fun and addictive.
The risk is high & the rewards can pile up quickly, plus...
>>> There are times when your chance(s) of being correct* are very near 100%
*Often, you don't really need to be correct (about market direction), you just need the market to move, and get both sides of your trades completed.

Medium-term:
Medium-term trading is where you can really out-perform most other traders.
Here is where the "pros" win, and most others end up in a stressful form of virtual Hell.

To succeed you need to decide on the direction of the next big/medium move, and have the patience, guts and courage to not sell/buy too soon.

For best results:
Combine all three time frames, manage your money well, and remember leaving me a tip (right now) will greatly improve your luck.

[WishIStartedSooner]

Hey guys, thanks for the input and sorry about the delayed response.

Stephen it sounds like you are asserting that the best way to know what's going to happen is to have inside knowledge.

To read the rumor-mill and then apply what the rumors say the the expected price. I will pay attention to information as it becomes available to me, and attempt to apply what you've said.

I've never tried IRC, amazingly. I've know about it for at least a decade and half, but never saw the need to use to it. Just seemed like there was way too many potential channels/servers to choose from, and all the niche uses I ever had for public chat-rooms were fulfilled by other programs. But this oughta be enough to persuade me to figure out this IRC thing and join bitcoin-otc (and the others you mentioned). Look for me soon.

Bit_Happy,

Thank you for the input. I'm sorry I can't donate quite yet but I'm still establishing myself a nice little bitcoin balance. Also, I couldn't figure out if you were expecting to get paid for the information presented, if you have more information available that you're offering to sell me?

Long term is my current plan.

Thank you for differentiating medium and short term for me. I had been thinking of "medium-term" as short-term in my head.

I guess what I'm asking for is information about how to become a better medium term investor.

You have piqued my interest regarding the short-term though.

Maybe next time the price gets all volatile I'll keep a few btc on gox and monitor the price ridiculously closely in an effort to profit.

Solid advice so far, people. My gratitude.

[Surpbitcoin]

sell high, buy low and repeat.   

 

[cindelle]

seems to be a bit compicated selling on places like this site when you're new though. Ive purchased bc last year at a bit over $5 a coin. Thought about selling them but have instead enjoyed watching them grow. But if/when the time comes and I want to sell them, its a challenge on here without a reputation I guess.

[whitenight639]

The short - medium- long post is good along with the buy low sell high,

You have to consider that the different types of trading have different advantages and risks, it seems the penny bots that trade small amounts only make any money because they can do it very fast, so very short term, HFT

For the day trading you need to learn how to read the numbers on an order book, look at the order book on: http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/
Forget the stupid graph It looks cool but only tells you past trends which is not amazingly relevant because we want to predict the future!

The order book will tell you where the big money is sat and at what prices, During the recent volitility you could see there would be alot of money on either the buy or sell side but not both at the same time! not like it is currently (as the market is quite stable atm) It's just simple supply and demand. Beware though as those big amounts can switch sides at the drop of a hat when large buy or sell orders get filled (and everybody else follows suit). So simply if there is lots of money on the bids side and not much on the ask side you should be seeing the price rise and you have to judge where you think it will top out before those bids get filled. also with the order book you can in some circumstances work out where prices could end up because if you have a very large amount of bitcoin sat at say an unrealistic $52 then the smaller amounts trading below it you can see there will be a "wall" for the price to rise over $52 because there is so much that will be sold at that price satisfying the demand.

You have to have guts though if you sell at a high and the price dips a little and stays there then wait, you have to wait it out to buy back in or loose your profit, It's easier when it's volotile. sometimes if you do loose out you have to buy back in and accept a loss if you think the trend will not come down and you'll be left walking whilst the train goes on without you.

I'm still new at this too so correct me if i'm wrong.

[WishIStartedSooner]

The short - medium- long post is good along with the buy low sell high,

You have to consider that the different types of trading have different advantages and risks, it seems the penny bots that trade small amounts only make any money because they can do it very fast, so very short term, HFT

For the day trading you need to learn how to read the numbers on an order book, look at the order book on: http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/
Forget the stupid graph It looks cool but only tells you past trends which is not amazingly relevant because we want to predict the future!

The order book will tell you where the big money is sat and at what prices, During the recent volitility you could see there would be alot of money on either the buy or sell side but not both at the same time! not like it is currently (as the market is quite stable atm) It's just simple supply and demand. Beware though as those big amounts can switch sides at the drop of a hat when large buy or sell orders get filled (and everybody else follows suit). So simply if there is lots of money on the bids side and not much on the ask side you should be seeing the price rise and you have to judge where you think it will top out before those bids get filled. also with the order book you can in some circumstances work out where prices could end up because if you have a very large amount of bitcoin sat at say an unrealistic $52 then the smaller amounts trading below it you can see there will be a "wall" for the price to rise over $52 because there is so much that will be sold at that price satisfying the demand.

You have to have guts though if you sell at a high and the price dips a little and stays there then wait, you have to wait it out to buy back in or loose your profit, It's easier when it's volotile. sometimes if you do loose out you have to buy back in and accept a loss if you think the trend will not come down and you'll be left walking whilst the train goes on without you.

I'm still new at this too so correct me if i'm wrong.

Holy awesome link and explanation! You're awesome!

I just took a look at that, I'm seeing about 1100 btc (estimating, and removing the tiny orders) waiting on the buy side and about 2600 on the selling.

This means we should anticipate a small drop today, right? hmm... I'm gonna guess... 45 bucks. of course that could be bots on the sell side so if thats the case it could go smaller.

So based on that link I am going to insert my first (noob) projection.

42 dollar low today.

Also I had been wondering if someone had wrote an effective bot for buying and selling short-term.
I was thinking about dusting off my idle, fundamental programming skills and attempting my own. Any idea where I can learn more about those too?

[whitenight639]

Holy awesome link and explanation! You're awesome!

I just took a look at that, I'm seeing about 1100 btc (estimating, and removing the tiny orders) waiting on the buy side and about 2600 on the selling.

This means we should anticipate a small drop today, right? hmm... I'm gonna guess... 45 bucks. of course that could be bots on the sell side so if thats the case it could go smaller.

So based on that link I am going to insert my first (noob) projection.

42 dollar low today.

Also I had been wondering if someone had wrote an effective bot for buying and selling short-term.
I was thinking about dusting off my idle, fundamental programming skills and attempting my own. Any idea where I can learn more about those too?

A couple of things:
Remember the order book only shows places bid / ask orders not instant market orders (although you do see these get executed on ticker i think, well in the last price anyway), so fat cats with a Mt gox account stuffed full of fiat or Btc will not show up unless they place a buy or sell order.

Also you have to consider the Macroeconomics of bitcoin, Its been in the press recently and the market capitalisation has almost doubled in not very long, it would certainly seem overall that there is more demand than supply (hence the price rise over the months), This definitely seems like it will continue unless a fatal floor or significant negative press is found or a major exchange hack etc.

one more thing, if you look at the simple dropdown graph on mt gox you can see the daily price open / close (red and green rectangles) and the trading volume (liney graph) you can see the when me in the UK should be sound asleep the other half of the world is awake and trading, the rise in price normally correlates with trading volume & activity, and falls slightly in most cases when the trading falls, normally when It's daytime here and the yanks and japs are all asleep lol. This isnt always the cast though, but there seems to be some correlation to me at least.

[whitenight639]

Also I've been trading like a week so I'm not some kind of seasoned investor, please do your own due diligence. And if my shizzle dont make sence im sleep deprived.

[WishIStartedSooner]

Also I've been trading like a week so I'm not some kind of seasoned investor, please do your own due diligence. And if my shizzle dont make sence im sleep deprived.

i understand that. and didnt put any money into it. just taking stabs to gauge my understanding.

i still find your insights valuable.

seems i was right about the low, but not for the reasons i had expected! lol.

mining glitch notwithstanding i would have been dead wrong, so its clear i have a ways to go yet.