aliashraf (OP)
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Always remember the cause!
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June 12, 2016, 03:13:03 PM |
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btc price is getting higher and the halving is coming.
I'm curious: is there any way to have a good prediction of the results and consequences (from the point of view of miners) with each of this three different scenarios, when the halving occurs:
btc being down to 500$ or less (not likely)
btc around 800$ (more likely)
btc jumping to 1000$ and more (who knows? )
It is not that trivial, when halving occurs there will be a trend among less efficient farms to shut down and it leads to a drop in difficulty an encouraging factor for some miners to be back, prices act as a dumper, setting the 'rest point' at appropriate levels.
The recent release of S9 and the upcoming competition of other ASIC manufacturers is another factor: if bitcoin prices get higher, there will be more incentives for buyers and the demand increases (for new high performance hardware) it causes the hash rate and the difficulty to increase and a force on the elder ones to be retired.
So bitcoin prices getting high is bad news or good news for miners with devices like s5, S3, sp20, ... ?
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mwizard
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June 12, 2016, 10:51:12 PM |
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So bitcoin prices getting high is bad news or good news for miners with devices like s5, S3, sp20, ... ?
The S5 and SP20 may be worth switching on for the next 4 weeks if your electricity is under about $0.10 per kWh. But after the halving you would need almost free electricity to turn them on. Basically you are safe assuming that after the halving only the A6, S7 and S9 will be worth turning on. |
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WaffleMaster
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June 13, 2016, 12:16:43 AM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
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notlist3d
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June 13, 2016, 06:20:20 AM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
I'm not sure I hope we don't see a massive sell off. I keep refreshing coinbase as I look here at speculation threads and it's climbing a tad more and more each time. Right now at 695 was hitting 697. We could be crossing 700 I keep watching it hoping to see it but no luck so far. *Edit it did drop to 688 so some selling off not surprising we might see a little sell wall. Also if price keeps climbing it means less miners being turned off. Espically if we get gains in value like this. I'm not sure exactly what caused it to start moving so quick in past week or two. But I won't complain. I thought the "climb price" would be slower and a little more mild. But it's hard to argue with whats happening now. |
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Amph
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June 13, 2016, 10:06:42 AM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
big dump does not matter, what it matter is the new bottom and i assure you that it will not be 4xx again the new bottom will be higher, intellingent miners should remain in play with the new s9 |
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philipma1957
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'The right to privacy matters'
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June 13, 2016, 10:10:47 AM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
big dump does not matter, what it matter is the new bottom and i assure you that it will not be 4xx again the new bottom will be higher, intellingent miners should remain in play with the new s9 I go along with your idea. |
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RastoMan
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June 13, 2016, 12:50:12 PM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
If the price is below $700 after the having, most high electricity cost miners will shut down their miners. |
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notlist3d
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June 13, 2016, 02:09:14 PM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
If the price is below $700 after the having, most high electricity cost miners will shut down their miners. I don't know about that with the recent S9. Your getting a miner that is 2/3 more efficient (approximately). So at 700 dollars a lot I think could remain with the new gear. Some old gear I do think will come off, but all depends on BTC price after having which is hard to speculate. Right now with BTC skyrocketing it's hard to say what will be profitable at what electricity rate. But with S9 there will for sure be it. |
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zian
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June 13, 2016, 06:08:30 PM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
I agree with that, as with usual stock optional behavior... |
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DarkThrones
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June 13, 2016, 06:27:09 PM |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
I agree with that, as with usual stock optional behavior... I also agree. But there is a chance that it will stabalize nicely from the buyers purchasing the dumpers out so the price will be steady and not just a big red candle. I mean it's REALLY significant that 1/2 are mined. |
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maddy123
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June 13, 2016, 06:35:13 PM
Last edit: June 13, 2016, 06:47:16 PM by maddy123 |
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In the near future I see a lot of miners being turned off after the big dump of the halving. We'll climb price based on speculation and then when the magical moment hits we'll see huge sell off.
I agree with that, as with usual stock optional behavior... I also agree. But there is a chance that it will stabalize nicely from the buyers purchasing the dumpers out so the price will be steady and not just a big red candle. I mean it's REALLY significant that 1/2 are mined. I think in near future of bitcoin, miners may turn off but about trading there are many expectations that bitcoin price may stable. Anything can happen. As today's buyers are very interested in bitcoin so may price be stable or also may go high. We hope for a good future of bitcoin.  |
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aliashraf (OP)
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Always remember the cause!
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June 13, 2016, 07:46:26 PM |
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Actually I'm more concerned about the dialectic between two major trends: 1- halving + s9 and similar products that push average and small miners out of the business 2- bitcoin price boost which resurrects them the trick is both trends are related. halving is a major factor (if not the only) for price boost and the later encourages more hash power (in terms of 14 nm ASIC ) to be bought and employed ---> higher difficulty ---> discouraging average mining I couldn't find a thorough mathematical analysis, seems to be non-linear if any model exists. suppose one should stay with his/her instincts  |
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InvestexMarkets
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June 14, 2016, 01:41:26 AM |
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No matter what happens I'll be keeping our s7's Innosilicon A2's running on custom images and KNC Neptune's running.
My hope is that some of the larger midsized farms might start to struggle with costing after the halving depending on what the price dose. I can't state that anymore. if the price dumps again for the prolonged period we saw from the first and highest prices last time then it could spell disastar for some with large costs and less rewards.
But on the other hand, if the price stays high and the pump continues for a longer period then it could balance out well.
There are many play's that could come out of this. untill they do. We all playing the guessing game..
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notlist3d
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June 14, 2016, 04:03:06 PM |
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No matter what happens I'll be keeping our s7's Innosilicon A2's running on custom images and KNC Neptune's running.
My hope is that some of the larger midsized farms might start to struggle with costing after the halving depending on what the price dose. I can't state that anymore. if the price dumps again for the prolonged period we saw from the first and highest prices last time then it could spell disastar for some with large costs and less rewards.
But on the other hand, if the price stays high and the pump continues for a longer period then it could balance out well.
There are many play's that could come out of this. untill they do. We all playing the guessing game..
I'm am not hoping larger/midsize farms struggle, as that is kinda meaning were in a scenario that hurts us home/hobby miner's to. I am hoping BTC continues to rise before having (and after). We have had made significant gains in value in a short period. What the new price point for S7's after having to be profitable hard to say. But I'm a lot more positive with recent upward trend on value with hashrate remaining not going crazy. It's been a heck of a lot better period before having then I expected. I thought hashrate would skyrocket.... but I was wrong which I love to be wrong in matters when it's good. |
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alh
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June 14, 2016, 05:09:15 PM |
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It will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next 60 days or so. The wisdom to date was that the halving and more efficient gear would render a bunch of older gear "obsolete" (from an economic point of view). With BTC price as high as it is though, that's not nearly so accurate. S5's and SP20's are still viable at this BTC price, even if not huge money makers (i.e. turning an operating profit if paid for). We'll have to see if that still holds in 30 days.
You can apply all the math you want to this general industry, but BTC price still looms large, and that's still almost entirely human driven.
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leowonderful
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June 14, 2016, 09:49:23 PM |
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With the last halving and observing other coins' halvings, there's a trend where obsolete hardware doesn't simply fall out on the day of the halving, but it slopes downwards as people are reluctant to stop all their miners at once. Once a few days pass, it goes down steeply as people realise the situation. Difficulty won't drop drastically, but it'll probably be over time, and it probably won't even be so deep as people expect. Old hardware like S7s will eventually be obsolete, even though it may take a while for that to set in. Avalon S6s are already dead, and possibly even the company as they're so damn far behind that they might as well stop trying to make a new chip at 16nm, and try for a later time. Bitmain's probably going to dominate the new miner section, as even Bitfury is screwed, and their chips might never come out. Last generation gear and below will die, with the general area of .20w/gh and up dying. We'll see a shallow drop in difficulty and hashrate, them a steep rise with S9's being phased in, to sum it all up.
All of this is because of the unreal bitcoin price. Realistically, miners thought a cap of 700$ was the max, but now we're nearly past that and there are no signs of this stopping. The price may poke near 900$ at the halving, and when that happens, S7s may still be marginally profitable, but only for a few weeks.
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InvestexMarkets
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June 14, 2016, 11:01:16 PM |
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I think we won't see any instant drematic effects right away depending if the price can stay over the 600+ mark for a prolonged period i think most farms will still be viable. What I don't want to see is the rate to change and the price to slip back to 2015 stalemate terriroty.
But its just a case of seeing what the price and markets do that is going to be the main factor in how the last 5 milion coins play out.
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RastoMan
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June 16, 2016, 06:10:36 PM |
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I think we won't see any instant drematic effects right away depending if the price can stay over the 600+ mark for a prolonged period i think most farms will still be viable. What I don't want to see is the rate to change and the price to slip back to 2015 stalemate terriroty.
But its just a case of seeing what the price and markets do that is going to be the main factor in how the last 5 milion coins play out.
The price is already $745 now. That price will keep miners happy for a while. If the price rises to $800, miners will still be profitable after halving. |
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