For me , I think the confirmations are not really getting faster, it's on the opposite side as for me Because before, everytime I transfer .01BTC it only took 2 to 10 min before my transactions are confirmed by the blockchain but it when I transferred a while ago it took more than an hour. Well I guess there are a lot of factors to consider in measuring the time before our transactions were confirmed.
Yes, it's highly variable and dependant on the size of the tx queue. That was the motivation behind BitcoinQueue.com, so we can understand the fee price market and confirmation time implications.