Will the tide turn? Or are we going to $60? Tune in tonight!

[zkay]

Please keep in mind that I am agnostic as to what is going to happen. If it dips significantly, I'm buying. If it breaks $50, I'm buying. Please keep this in mind and try not to get too incensed over this poll. It's all just a game anyway.

I will simply quote my post from another thread:

There seems to be some consensus that this coming monday, 3/11/13, is a turning point. With new money coming in, we will either get a massive run up, or a decline from people holding trying to sell to the new buyers. Right now we are in limbo; no one has any way of knowing what will happen before then.

Will speculators continue to buy until Sunday night, in order to have more BTC on hand to sell to the new buyers on Monday? Or will some piece of news or a rumor or a general emotion take hold over enough holders and they'll sell before the price falls Monday?

Will enough new money and demand show up on Monday to override any sell off that may occur? At what point does the tide turn?

Many questions, few answers. As time goes on, the answers will either reveal themselves or at least become less vague. This is my rationale behind waiting until at least Sunday night before buying in. Buying now, to me, is more emotional than based in reason. Emotional in that there is simply hope that enough new buy orders will show up monday to keep the price where it is or drive it up. Waiting for this to confirm itself, or at least become more likely, seems more reasoned to me.

And if it does go up a few dollars and the gains either hold or continue Monday? I've only lost out on a few dollars per coin, which won't amount to much if the price continues up.

And it seems most of my threads attract eternal longs. I don't really understand why someone looking five or ten years down the line, and ONLY concerned with the long-very long term, would even reply to posts concerning intervals measured in shorter distances than years? Not that you aren't welcome, too. We can all prognosticate together!

(queue monster truck rally voice)

Monday, Monday, Monday!

[fabrizziop]

I have no idea, but we are currently working on our 8th daily green candle in a row. How long will the streak last?

The last correction to 33$ was a pretty intense one, so I think we will break 50$ next week.

[Dargo]

We haven't even closed below the 5 day EMA since the run started in Jan - dipped below, yes, but not closed below on a daily basis. That is about as powerful as momentum gets. The most bullish scenario would be to trade sideways in a tight range for at least 2-3 more days before pushing higher, but I'm not sure bulls will be able to keep it in their pants that long. But the move above 50 would be more convincing IMO if we had more of a base to launch from. 

[Beta-coiner1]

There are no make or break days with regards.Regardless of if there is a rally or short there is opportunity.

[gmiwenht]

Why are there "new buyers" on Monday? Is there something special happening tomorrow, or are you just referring to the usual post-weekend deposits?

[cptmooseinc]

Don't forget that CoinLabs will be taking over US Gox soon, so that may dampen the movement of BTC, and many may hold on until the last second before dumping/withdrawing. I plan on having my entire Gox liquidated before CoinLabs takes control. I'll open a new account and test it out with them before giving permission for them to access my other information in my real account.

[zoinky]

Why are there "new buyers" on Monday? Is there something special happening tomorrow, or are you just referring to the usual post-weekend deposits?

Banks open back up, wire transfers go through.

[lleibowitz]

I suspect more and more people are holding their coins waiting for the price going up in the hundreds. At the same time more and more people will try to jump on board and try to get some coins. I say we'll see $75 in a couple of days.

[zkay]

Don't forget that CoinLabs will be taking over US Gox soon, so that may dampen the movement of BTC, and many may hold on until the last second before dumping/withdrawing. I plan on having my entire Gox liquidated before CoinLabs takes control. I'll open a new account and test it out with them before giving permission for them to access my other information in my real account.

What is the concern there? That it will be botched somehow and the exchange might be slow or down? Isn't that short term bearish?

[cptmooseinc]

I think there will be a fair amount of people who don't want their funds repatriated and have closer government oversight. Plus possible tax reporting implications. For people holding large stores of bitcoin and wishing to cash out, there's no doubt they'll use cash-in-mail or cash-in-person trades to hide the gains. As for middling players (such as MtGox traders), it might be something as simple as pulling all BTC into a personal wallet and waiting to see what CoinLabs does once they takeover. Could at least stagnate the price for a short time.

[crazy_rabbit]

Don't forget that CoinLabs will be taking over US Gox soon, so that may dampen the movement of BTC, and many may hold on until the last second before dumping/withdrawing. I plan on having my entire Gox liquidated before CoinLabs takes control. I'll open a new account and test it out with them before giving permission for them to access my other information in my real account.

Most people aren't that paranoid. Bitcoin started because it was the currency of the revolution. In fact it's success will come when it's the currency of the people.

And as facebook has proven- people really don't mind telling anyone everything about themselves, including the government.

[rpietila]

I think there will be a fair amount of people who don't want their funds repatriated and have closer government oversight. Plus possible tax reporting implications. For people holding large stores of bitcoin and wishing to cash out, there's no doubt they'll use cash-in-mail or cash-in-person trades to hide the gains. As for middling players (such as MtGox traders), it might be something as simple as pulling all BTC into a personal wallet and waiting to see what CoinLabs does once they takeover. Could at least stagnate the price for a short time.

Good analysis but conclusion is pure b$: if large weak hands withdraw their BTC to personal wallets, they can not sell in the exchange, and this is bullish to the price, is it not?

[ArticMine]

I suspect the MTGox / Coinlab deal will be bullish for Bitcoin. If fear of the IRS leads to United States citizens and residents withdrawing thier BTC to personal wallets then this will reduce the chance of emotional panic selling by those with weak hands. On the other hand this deal will make it a lot easier for many in the United States to purchase Bitcoin by facilitating bank transfers.

[zkay]

Decent numbers of votes so far, thanks all!

As I write this BTC is back to what I sold out at, $45.50/USD.

Where is everyone? Low traffic tonight.

[zkay]

So far, the stagnate votes are ahead! Price isn't doing very much at all so far, and it's 10:19pm CST.

[Ichthyo]

right now, any remotely "sane" USD loans are taken at Bitfinex, leaving only loans over 800% APY.
Traders took more than 98k USD loans to go long. Epic 
https://bitfinex.com/pages/stats

[zkay]

Well, I've broken down and bought 2 BTC @ 46.60. Let's see what happens!

Goodnight all.

[TooCasual]

Well like I said on the 5th....

She might pause.  Get a bit humpy bumpy.  Still up n up. Ask the day traders and bears how they've fared in the last 5 days.  Guessing 50 by Monday night.  

TC

[Qoheleth]

right now, any remotely "sane" USD loans are taken at Bitfinex, leaving only loans over 800% APY.

Heh. Sorry I ran out - only got so many dollars on hand to pass out to starry-eyed dreamers. Hard to get more into Bitfinex without either eating wire fees or taking the slow boat through Dwolla and Gox.

I'll see if I can get more money in before the current optimism dries up, eh?

[SkRRJyTC]

right now, any remotely "sane" USD loans are taken at Bitfinex, leaving only loans over 800% APY.

Heh. Sorry I ran out - only got so many dollars on hand to pass out to starry-eyed dreamers. Hard to get more into Bitfinex without either eating wire fees or taking the slow boat through Dwolla and Gox.

I'll see if I can get more money in before the current optimism dries up, eh?

I cant wait for a downtrend so I can lend BTC