my wild prediction for tomorrow: cheap coins (but not for long)

[chiropteran]

I suspect the fork issues going on now will scare out a lot of people, and value will plummet early in the AM tomorrow.  But I also suspect that a lot of long term investors who experienced the crash of '11 and kick themselves every day for failing to buy in at $3 will jump at the chance to get some bitcoins for under market value.  My guess is this will just be a very brief and temporary blip in the value of bitcoins, which quickly recovers thanks to lessons learned in the previous major crash.

[Global BTC]

A thing to consider is that the temporary shutdown of BTC deposits to Mt.Gox will decrease the supply as long as it lasts, and possibly for some time after it since not everyone who wants to sell their coins will be hammering Mt.Gox until it's open again, they might just try another day. However, this will also create a buildup of miners who wants to sell their coins but can't, and when that buildup is released, supply will be higher than normal.

[bitlybit]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

[Piper67]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.

[bitlybit]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.

lol the protocol shouldn't care if people are mining on different versions, that's a bad design

if there's another major problem in the future with the 'protocol' that needs everyone to upgrade then the protocol is badly designed

we just need Bitcoin 2 and startover to truly fix it (fix the major problems in the protocol design first ofcourse), and then Bitcoin 3 if that fails etc (naturally)

[Herodes]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

You know, saying this on many threads doesn't make it true... No, the protocol didn't fail. In fact, if everyone had upgraded to 0.8, we wouldn't even be talking. I realised you want cheap coins, but this is silly.

lol the protocol shouldn't care if people are mining on different versions, that's a bad design

It was a bug, and it's being worked on, even NASA with their rigorous coding system (two coders overlooking every code line, and 3 checkers checking their lines), and every change in code has to be commented extensively, makes fatal mistakes.

http://royal.pingdom.com/2009/03/19/10-historical-software-bugs-with-extreme-consequences/

[Bit_Happy]

Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

[Piper67]

Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

The chains should merge in the next hour or so. Anyone who understands what's going on will be buying.

[NegativeNancy]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Sell your holdings and leave.

[Nemesis]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Sell your holdings and leave.

Look like many have already done that.

You would rather get out of holding position and get back in when it settle.

It wont be for a few days i tell you

This fork + overvalued price = crash

[chiropteran]

Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

Maybe, maybe not.  Personally I am betting that the irrational reactive people will push the value down further, so I am not buying back in yet... I'll wait for the low to hit, and then invest.  Why buy 200 coins @ $39 now if I can buy 400 coins @ $20 in a few hours?

[meebs]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

the protocol is working PERFECTLY.

it is the software that a certain OLDER version that did not work perfectly.

[ehoffman]

Not just the client, but all the servers that rely on the old DB format are down too.  Sent BTC to vircurex, and it does not see my transaction (stuck at 0 of 6 confirms).  My client have long confirmed the transaction.  So, it's affecting the whole ecosystem, not just 0.7 client.

[randrace]

Right now people should be buying, but many are still selling.

Maybe, maybe not.  Personally I am betting that the irrational reactive people will push the value down further, so I am not buying back in yet... I'll wait for the low to hit, and then invest.  Why buy 200 coins @ $39 now if I can buy 400 coins @ $20 in a few hours?

I hope you are right, but that seems like a huge drop. I don't feel the drop will be that dramatic.

[qwk]

we just need Bitcoin 2 and startover to truly fix it (fix the major problems in the protocol design first ofcourse), and then Bitcoin 3 if that fails etc (naturally)

You mean like, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 an so on? Giving them integer numbers doesn't really change anything, you know? 

Having said that, bitcoin is still beta software, tiny quirks like the one at hand are to be expected.

Now accept your fate, you won't be getting a chance to be an early miner in a "bitcoin2" network 

[romerun]

http://betsofbitco.in/item?id=1258

[Melbustus]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Wow, way to misinterpret.

Tonight was a success. Both in terms of the flexibility of the system, and the community's reaction to a bug. This just gives me more long-term confidence that bitcoin can withstand adversity, be it from a software issue (these *will* happen!) or a malicious attack. Tonight's issue was handled and resolved with remarkable speed, consensus, and effectiveness.

[Piper67]

you understand that bitcoin protocol just failed right?

Wow, way to misinterpret.

Tonight was a success. Both in terms of the flexibility of the system, and the community's reaction to a bug. This just gives me more long-term confidence that bitcoin can withstand adversity, be it from a software issue (these *will* happen!) or a malicious attack. Tonight's issue was handled and resolved with remarkable speed, consensus, and effectiveness.

Agreed. Regardless of how the market reacts, this was impressive. Just about the worst case scenario happened, and it got resolved efficiently, in a matter of hours. You'd never be able to do that with an equivalent crisis in gold, stocks or any fiat currency. It was an amazing display of cool-headedness.

[chiropteran]

Whelp, the coins didn't get very cheap!  Hope you guys bought some @ $39.  Best I did was pickup a few at $42.

[yokosan]

It's not the bug that will cause a major drop. It's when some of the big name companies that decided to accept bitcoin and restored faith in the currencies future stop accepting BTC because they fear it's not safe enough.

If reddit, wordpress, mega, and namecheap gave up on BTC it would drop sub $10 again. Fact.

The chances of that may be low, but this is the state of affairs when bitcoin is this small. It needs more widespread adoption before it is safe.