Diff thread june 20 to july 4 -picks are closed!.... prize = $50 usd

[philipma1957]

Okay new game.  

[tertius993]

New game ? So how is it that the picks are closed ?

Picks are only open for the middle of the difficulty period - if you look at some of the previous threads you will see exactly how it works, but in short we all have to wait, observe and speculate for the first few hundred blocks, then Philip will open the competition for 400 blocks, when we make our forecasts guesses and then picks are closed for the last few hundred blocks (to prevent last minute guesses) and we are all on tenterhooks watching ...

[alh]

A minor suggestions for Phil:

Maybe the title should say "not yet open" rather than "closed" prior to block 1116. It might be a little more descriptive. Obviously "open" when we pass 1116 remaining and then "closed" when we are down to 716 remaining.

Just a thought.

[Mikestang]

Thanks for keeping it going, Phil.  Last one before the halving?  Let's do it!

[alh]

Thanks for keeping it going, Phil.  Last one before the halving?  Let's do it!

I'll 2nd his comments.

As I do the math, the CURRENT adjustment period will have all 25BTC blocks, and will complete before the halving. The NEXT adjustment period will have the halving contained within it (and have a mix of 25 and 12.5 BTC blocks).

[alh]

While it's way too early to make a pick, I am expecting another increase in difficulty, and don't mean just 1%. Isay this because BTC is price is higher than most of the current year. Yes it's lower than a week ago, it's still much higher than it was for the first 4 months of the year. That will delay the exit of some less efficient mining hardware until after the halving. You can also be sure that all the S9's, and even S7's that Bitmain ships will get deployed.

To me that all adds up to another noticeable jump in hashrate and hence difficulty. In my opinion, the only thing that would limit the increase is a substantial "collapse" of BTC price, say $400 or less.

While BTC is above $600, I think the plan will be "Mine while the mining is good".

[notlist3d]

While it's way too early to make a pick, I am expecting another increase in difficulty, and don't mean just 1%. Isay this because BTC is price is higher than most of the current year. Yes it's lower than a week ago, it's still much higher than it was for the first 4 months of the year. That will delay the exit of some less efficient mining hardware until after the halving. You can also be sure that all the S9's, and even S7's that Bitmain ships will get deployed.

To me that all adds up to another noticeable jump in hashrate and hence difficulty. In my opinion, the only thing that would limit the increase is a substantial "collapse" of BTC price, say $400 or less.

While BTC is above $600, I think the plan will be "Mine while the mining is good".

I am hoping we can keep BTC in upper 600's going into having.  I think some sold some off before having as lot's of unknowns so I can understand that.   I hope with getting so close to having we manage to get up to 700+ again this period.  But I have a hard time complaining still at high 600's.   

I am also hoping we don't have any bad news.  I have enjoyed playing around with Ether and man did the DAO news drop it.  It has rebounded some but not to the 20 mark which was so nice to see.  So I just hope we can keep news positive about bitcoin going into having as news definitely has a effect on price.

[Mikestang]

Yea that big peak hash power was shut off again, just after the diff adjustment like it has been doing for a while now.  I think we'll see another huge price surge still, I think the coin will be over $1000 at the halving - my prediction and quote me on it if it happens (but feel free to ignore if it doesn't ).

[mavericklm]

Hey all! hard life with 2jobs...
1k?! goes under 600, maybe even 500atm!

[notlist3d]

Hey all! hard life with 2jobs...
1k?! goes under 600, maybe even 500atm!

It has definitely taken a tumble which are not quite as fun to watch.  In a single day we have went from high 660' to a low of 551.  So a huge drop and a lot of people sold making it continue to drop.  I like charts and there is one of my favorite here - http://www.coindesk.com/price/

We are a little more stable going up to  576 on coinbase.   But it's still very volitale  so hard to say what will happen in next 12-24 hours.  I hope up but who  knows.

[alh]

Hey all! hard life with 2jobs...
1k?! goes under 600, maybe even 500atm!

this is wonderful news  a continued drop in price will knock out tons of gear come the ½ ing.

  I am hoping for 475.00

I just purchased some  at 560 usd

For me, BTC is going to have to fall much further before I'll convert actual dollars into BTC. Two months ago, if somebody had offered to sell me a BTC for $560 I would have laughed. I am hard pressed to see what is fundamentally different in terms of conditions that affect BTC price. Although I do have to admit that I have no idea what influences the price of BTC. I expect it's more likely geopolitical events that I have little insight into. All this mining and hardware stuff is interesting, but a cogent understanding of how BTC price actually is determined, and a way to accurately predict it, would be worth way more than a BitFury mining container.

Just my $.01 (not even two cents) on the topic.

[Mikestang]

For me, BTC is going to have to fall much further before I'll convert actual dollars into BTC. Two months ago, if somebody had offered to sell me a BTC for $560 I would have laughed. I am hard pressed to see what is fundamentally different in terms of conditions that affect BTC price. Although I do have to admit that I have no idea what influences the price of BTC. I expect it's more likely geopolitical events that I have little insight into. All this mining and hardware stuff is interesting, but a cogent understanding of how BTC price actually is determined, and a way to accurately predict it, would be worth way more than a BitFury mining container.

I think the primary driving force behind bitcoin price is speculation - speculation that, at some point in the future, BTC will be worth significantly more than they were yesterday.  I'm sure there is a myriad of factors that come into play, but I'd put my money on speculation having the largest slice of that pie chart.

[ezeminer]

For me, BTC is going to have to fall much further before I'll convert actual dollars into BTC. Two months ago, if somebody had offered to sell me a BTC for $560 I would have laughed. I am hard pressed to see what is fundamentally different in terms of conditions that affect BTC price. Although I do have to admit that I have no idea what influences the price of BTC. I expect it's more likely geopolitical events that I have little insight into. All this mining and hardware stuff is interesting, but a cogent understanding of how BTC price actually is determined, and a way to accurately predict it, would be worth way more than a BitFury mining container.

I think the primary driving force behind bitcoin price is speculation - speculation that, at some point in the future, BTC will be worth significantly more than they were yesterday.  I'm sure there is a myriad of factors that come into play, but I'd put my money on speculation having the largest slice of that pie chart.

Well Brexit passed, so we should see the effects coming soon. People jumping ship to find other investments as the pound starts losing power. Already changed 4 cents to the usd while I was watching today.

[HerbPean]

That's quite a nice drop !

[RichBC]

Well now that we have Brexit out of the way, back to Bitcoin. At least my coins are worth more in Pounds than they were before....

So 4 Days in and things seem relatively subdued with Yesterday being -10.42% with 129 Blocks. Period to Date Run rate is still finding it's level but sits at -5.4% this Morning.


Rich

[ATguy]

Yesterday being -10.42% with 129 Blocks. Period to Date Run rate is still finding it's level but sits at -5.4% this Morning.

When I check difficulty realtime graph, we spiked to positive territory. It seems to corelate bit with the price which would make sence if enought hashpower switching off whenever price drops a lot, and switching on whenever price recovers.

[notlist3d]

well we have spiked up a bit today


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   209,453,158,595

Estimated Next Difficulty:   217,211,595,962 (+3.70%)


Adjust time:   After 1332 Blocks, About 9.2 days  >>>> we start at block 1116

Hashrate(?):   1,469,068,299 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.9 minutes
3 blocks: 29.6 minutes
6 blocks: 59.3 minutes
Updated:   21:45 (5.6 minutes ago)

Price is around 668 on coinbase currently.  We had some surges up to 690's so it did go up a tad and fall but not drastic. - http://www.coindesk.com/price/ .  I still am hoping to see 700 base by having which I think  it is possible.

It has been exciting to watch that is for sure.  And having is only getting closer and closer so will be a interesting week in a half or so for sure.

[Stedsm]

Waiting eagerly for the picks to open, don't want to lose my spot I am thinking to be the next % change.
Though, change in prize is a good way to be safe during this volatile market.

[valkir]

I take my traditional 2.2! 

+2.2 = Valkir

[topiOleg]

+3.0 = topiOleg


This is the last before halving if Im correct. This could mean last difficulty increase in a while as I expect many people shutting off mining when block rewards going from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.