[FCT] FACTOM - HOW FACTOIDS WORK - PRICE SPECULATION

[tempus]

Just wanted to thank Blazin8888 / OP for the first post—super helpful and a great analysis IMO.

This passage in particular I thought was spot-on:

"The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems [which BTC is solving]. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data."

If you follow this line of thought, the implications are massive. I think most ppl aren't fully aware of the extent to which data is the bedrock layer of just about everything that has any economic value today.

That guy is a thief!!


"And Factom and Factoids are even more interesting if we focus on it's value more basically. The basic principles of value I tried to describe above are way better reflected in Factoms functionality and design than in Bitcoins functionality and design.

The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data.

(....)"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=850070.msg15480162#msg15480162

@Blazin8888: 1000 Factoids because of breaking copyright!

[D-Lux]

Just wanted to thank Blazin8888 / OP for the first post—super helpful and a great analysis IMO.

This passage in particular I thought was spot-on:

"The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems [which BTC is solving]. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data."

If you follow this line of thought, the implications are massive. I think most ppl aren't fully aware of the extent to which data is the bedrock layer of just about everything that has any economic value today.

That guy is a thief!!


"And Factom and Factoids are even more interesting if we focus on it's value more basically. The basic principles of value I tried to describe above are way better reflected in Factoms functionality and design than in Bitcoins functionality and design.

The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data.

(....)"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=850070.msg15480162#msg15480162

@Blazin8888: 1000 Factoids because of breaking copyright!

Wow—my bad! Props again to you, Tempus!  A really great post IMO ...

[tempus]

Just wanted to thank Blazin8888 / OP for the first post—super helpful and a great analysis IMO.

This passage in particular I thought was spot-on:

"The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems [which BTC is solving]. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data."

If you follow this line of thought, the implications are massive. I think most ppl aren't fully aware of the extent to which data is the bedrock layer of just about everything that has any economic value today.

That guy is a thief!!


"And Factom and Factoids are even more interesting if we focus on it's value more basically. The basic principles of value I tried to describe above are way better reflected in Factoms functionality and design than in Bitcoins functionality and design.

The problems that Factom promises to solve, with it's focus on data, are more pressuring for more people in the present, than the problems of the financial systems. That could change any time (financial crisis could become very intense at any time), but for now I believe it's true. And a lot problems of the financial systems also are connected to data.

(....)"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=850070.msg15480162#msg15480162

@Blazin8888: 1000 Factoids because of breaking copyright!

Wow—my bad! Props again to you, Tempus!  A really great post IMO ...

No problem and thanks!

And Blazin8888 really did a good job with the first post. A very good overview. We're all on the same side here. ;-)

[bbc.reporter]

Factom is still going strong. Does anyone have any solid idea what the reason is? I speculate that it will still go up more. But until it will reach the same volume ETH, it will not fly like it.

Reasons are the chinese article about a partnership with datayes (just look above, my last post). Everybody is waiting for an official announcement, but they already confirmed it because DataYes is already included in their data-statistics here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RUZLxxoAfT3C5jIJ144DLYdztYe_sqrKqbTlZuD05-s/edit#gid=445871101

And there is also a very successful selling of shares: https://bnktothefuture.com/pitches/factom-series-a

People also expect some media-echo because of that.

And the next release, Milestone 2 should be near.

Ok but what is your opinion on Datayes? I have not heard about it before and I see no reason to get excited about it except that the price of FCT is going high.

Is Datayes a big company in China?

[tempus]

Factom is still going strong. Does anyone have any solid idea what the reason is? I speculate that it will still go up more. But until it will reach the same volume ETH, it will not fly like it.

Reasons are the chinese article about a partnership with datayes (just look above, my last post). Everybody is waiting for an official announcement, but they already confirmed it because DataYes is already included in their data-statistics here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RUZLxxoAfT3C5jIJ144DLYdztYe_sqrKqbTlZuD05-s/edit#gid=445871101

And there is also a very successful selling of shares: https://bnktothefuture.com/pitches/factom-series-a

People also expect some media-echo because of that.

And the next release, Milestone 2 should be near.

Ok but what is your opinion on Datayes? I have not heard about it before and I see no reason to get excited about it except that the price of FCT is going high.

Is Datayes a big company in China?

What you need to know about Factom is: It will be all about the demand for Entry Credits. EC's are like the licenses to record hashes of data into Factom. And every time EC's are purchased, Factoids are converted into EC's and consumed (out of the system - "burned").

That means: The more demand, the higher the price has to be or the total supply would decrease (Inflation/payment for federated servers is about 73k FCT per month).


And this new partnership is big. This is Factoms official announcement:


DataYes + Factom Announce Collaboration

Immutable Stock Market Data Is Now Available To the World

(…)

“Some of the largest stock markets and the most valuable companies in the world are in China and so we believe it’s important to make their pricing data available to developers on a blockchain.” Said David Johnston, Chairman of the Board at Factom

“Today the exchanges send out the ‘mark to market’ price and we record them in blockchain as a two-step process. As Blockchain technology matures in the future, all transactions will be recorded on the blockchain, and the “mark to market” stock price as we know today will be evolved to ‘mark to blockchain’ naturally in one step.” Continued George Hu, General Manager at DataYes.


(…)

About DataYes

DataYes is China’s first open and big data information platform, curating both structured and unstructured data from across the globe covering key economic metrics as well as industry, company, e-commerce, search and social media data. It is a treasure box full of raw materials for artificial intelligence and quantitative investment research. DataYes is China’s leading edge financial technology company founded by a group of experts in the fields of finance and internet technology. It is invested by Wanxiang Group, one of China’s largest non-state-owned conglomerate. DataYes’ headquarter is located in Shanghai Lujiazui Financial and Trade Zone, and has an office in Silicon Valley. For more information on DataYes, visit datayes.com.
https://www.factom.com/datayes-factom-announce-collaboration/


What they plan is to record stock-market-data. And for me it seems to be complementary to their last partnership-announcement with smart contract:

"Factom gives you the ability to publish immutable data AND establish yourself as an authority that publishes immutable data. Over time, the validity of that data can be judged and your reputation as an Oracle can be cemented. Factom also by its nature is accountable because one can conduct full audits on all published data."
https://www.factom.com/smartcontract-factom-announce-collaboration/



And again, what I've said above: Every time data is recorded into Factom it needs Entry Credits. And every time Entry Credits are purchased, Factoids are burned. So, there is an objective reason for the price to rise, even if it's anticipation because Factom is not totally finished yet. It's rational to expect an explosion of demand as soon as the system is completed.

[bbc.reporter]

Tempus thanks for the informative reply. But it looks like there is a correction in price. This may be a good time to add more FCT while it is stable. Or maybe wiat for it to go down more? What do you think?

[tempus]

Tempus thanks for the informative reply. But it looks like there is a correction in price. This may be a good time to add more FCT while it is stable. Or maybe wiat for it to go down more? What do you think?

No problem!

I believe it's not predictable for the next days. If you want to buy, maybe don't do it at once but with a focus on a good average. At least the weekend will most likely be quiet and if there should be a combination of "bored/impatient" and "profit-taking" it will go down. But I don't believe it would go down much. I only would expect that if Bitcoin should shoot up. But I don't believe that will happen for the weekend but in general I believe it will go back where it was before the Bitfinex-hack. 

On the other side it's obvious that Factom gets more and more attention and I believe that's a tendency that will continue to increase.
And what I believe is that we can expect more good news in the "near" future. Not sure if days or weeks but I don't believe that it will be boring for a longer time-frame.

So, I'm really unsure regarding short-term. In longterm I'm sure that Factom (and the price) has a lot of potential. Most important in my opinion is: No bad news.

[MalReynolds]

I'm a new convert to Factom and have bought in for the long-term with a fairly large purchase.  This had better work because I am missing out on a fairly nice recent uptick in Lisk price, where I've been since their IPO.  The problem with Lisk is, they are still organizing and are nowhere near actually implementing a business on a sidechain.  And they are depending on others to create that sidechain business, too.  Obviously, Factom is landing actual real-money contracts Right Now.

Weighing significantly on my decision to jump in here,  I met Paul Snow two years ago at the first Texas Bitcoin Conference.  He's a great guy.  If he's involved with Factom, that's a Good Thing.

So...how does one get selected to run a Federated Server or Audit Server?

[Das]

I intend to spread my little funds over three to four altcoins and factom seems like an interesting little altcoin to look into. . . hmmmm

[D-Lux]

I intend to spread my little funds over three to four altcoins and factom seems like an interesting little altcoin to look into. . . hmmmm

Welcome! If you're looking to do some more research, this is the main bitcointalk FCT thread:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=850070.new#new

And the website factom.com has a lot of great info, actually, including a good FAQ. Also some excellent videos on YouTube.

[Mimir]

So...how does one get selected to run a Federated Server or Audit Server?

From the whitepaper:

Federated servers are re-ranked every four hours. The ranking is a function of a vote by the
users, who must create a profile Chain in Factom. The profile contains any number of signed
public address Entries. The weight of a user’s vote is determined by the public addresses in
their profile. The function computing the weight of a public address is the sum of:

● Weighted Number of Entry Credits purchased in the last six months (Sum of purchases
of each month, weighted by 6 in the current month, 5 in the previous, etc.)

● Weighted Number of Entries used in the last six months (Sum of Entries used in each
month, weighted by 6 in the current month, 5 in the previous, etc.)

When running with n servers, the top ranking n servers are the Federated servers, and another
n are Auditing servers. All the servers are maintained by rank based on the quantity of votes for
them. The number n is initially specified as 16, but this number is up for community debate, and
could be a floating value based on transaction volume.

[Azael]

Market recovering after a quite irrational dump of roughly 1/3 the order book. I believe it'll pick up next week with a few press releases.


There was somebody linking a fake article that never existed on thedashtimes about a "security issue" with Factom which might've caused last nights exit which Factom replied to here https://twitter.com/factom/status/764521719906332672

Factoms Series A completed https://bnktothefuture.com/pitches/factom-series-a

And Maidsafe stole the Poloniex show this weekend releasing an alpha version of a decades work. I'm impressed by their work and their undertaking but if an alpha takes a decade it's too long for me to stick around for their beta considering what that could happen up to that point.

[bbc.reporter]

Yes I am confused as to why someone dumped FCT hard. This is a point in time to hold because it is rising in price. Maybe there is someone who does not like for it to go up? But why?

[D-Lux]

Yes I am confused as to why someone dumped FCT hard. This is a point in time to hold because it is rising in price. Maybe there is someone who does not like for it to go up? But why?

Deep-pocketed whales sometimes manipulate the price downward either to ensure their shorts are successful, or to accumulate cheaper coins.

[bbc.reporter]

Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

[D-Lux]

Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

Yeah, I personally think it's mostly the other possibility—whales suppressing the price to accumulate cheaper coins. If the price weren't suppressed (assuming I'm right that it is), then the only people selling would be the "natural" sellers looking to lock in a profit. Without price-suppression, I believe FCT's price would jump quite a bit, attracting new investors ... until, ultimately, an accelerated price rise would give way to a bubble. Not sure how far the price would go, but I believe it would be considerable.

But in regards to shorting ... If you look at lending rates on Poloniex, for instance, you'll see that over the past week, the daily lending rate for FCT has been jumping to 0.2 - 0.4, which is very high. The lending market is a free market, and when rates jump, it means the borrow-side pressure is more significant than the lending-side (which generally remains more stable). So basically: there's been a jump in borrowed funds, for the purpose of shorting FCT. Again, there's no telling what the intentions or long-term-play of people shorting FCT are, but IMO there are much better cryptos to short if that's all you're going after.

Generally the best cryptos to short are the ones with the weakest buy walls, which create the least resistance to price suppression. But FCT's buy wall has been growing increasingly large over the past few weeks, so ... if the intention is simply to short a crypto and make profit that way, it doesn't really make sense to choose FCT. Which is why I believe the whales currently shorting FCT have another motive—namely, to accumulate cheap coins from dispirited sellers.

Looked at another way, FCT being shorted so aggressively can be seen as a (somewhat ironic) vote of confidence for FCT ... Whoever's shorting+accumulating really wants to collect a lot, which raises the question: Why, exactly? Because they've done the research, realized the potential future magnitude of FCT, and are collecting as part of a long-term plan.

One strategy in all this: Be a lamprey. By this I mean: you can basically have the whales short for you, and simply accumulate at the lower price just as they are. But without having to deal with lending, margin, and the associate risks.

But the hardest part in all this is the psychological/emotional part—not getting caught up and demoralized by temporary price drops, but instead to see them as opportunities to "shadow" a whale's strategy. Easier said than done, especially if you have significant money on the line, but to quote Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the price drops, you can either see it as an indication of the quality of the crypto, or as a temporary buying opportunity. The better you understand Factom and its potential, I believe, the more you'll see it as the latter.

Caveat: This is crypto, and there are no guarantees. What I've written above are my own beliefs, based on my own research, but ultimately they're nothing more than unprovable theories. Trust your own judgment, and always remember—and make sure to follow—the crypto perma-disclaimer: Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

[MalReynolds]

Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

Yeah, I personally think it's mostly the other possibility—whales suppressing the price to accumulate cheaper coins....

This is my gut feeling too, and I am a lamprey.  Psychologically, not easy right now.  Thanks for an insightful post.

[bbc.reporter]

Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

....

But the hardest part in all this is the psychological/emotional part—not getting caught up and demoralized by temporary price drops, but instead to see them as opportunities to "shadow" a whale's strategy. Easier said than done, especially if you have significant money on the line, but to quote Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the price drops, you can either see it as an indication of the quality of the crypto, or as a temporary buying opportunity. The better you understand Factom and its potential, I believe, the more you'll see it as the latter.

Yes. I am a victim of this too. I usually check the price almost every hour even every minute when I am home and I always keep thinking if is still worth holding the coin. Some people trading is simple but I have realized it is really not. It will take me some time before I get used to the emotions.

[D-Lux]

Ok I get the idea of getting cheap coins. But why ensure their shorts? You mean to say there are people who still go short in FCT? That is like betting against it. If they manipulate it to go down at the same time then surely their bet will win. What do you think?

....

But the hardest part in all this is the psychological/emotional part—not getting caught up and demoralized by temporary price drops, but instead to see them as opportunities to "shadow" a whale's strategy. Easier said than done, especially if you have significant money on the line, but to quote Buffett: "be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." When the price drops, you can either see it as an indication of the quality of the crypto, or as a temporary buying opportunity. The better you understand Factom and its potential, I believe, the more you'll see it as the latter.

Yes. I am a victim of this too. I usually check the price almost every hour even every minute when I am home and I always keep thinking if is still worth holding the coin. Some people trading is simple but I have realized it is really not. It will take me some time before I get used to the emotions.

Yep, I've been there. It can be exhausting and demoralizing at times. My advice, fwiw, is:

—As a general rule in crypto: never invest more than you can afford to lose.
—It's difficult, but if you can commit to only looking at charts at a 2-week or 1-month zoom, it can really help keep your focus on the bigger picture. Remember that daily price fluctuations have nothing to do with the quality or potential of the tech, but instead with the whims of the market, price manipulation, the effects of shorters, etc.
—If you buy at 1x, and the next day the price is 0.8x, logic would suggest that one should buy more, given that the tech hasn't changed, but the coin is now selling at a discount. But this is logic, and logic isn't the hard part ... However this very short analysis can be a counterbalance to the psychological/emotional strain of price movements.
—When it doubt: research. This is IMO the most important. The more you know about a crypto, the more secure you'll be in your decision of whether or not to hold. You may learn something that causes you to reconsider your allocation or strategy, and if so, that is what you should base your investment decisions on. I used to check the charts very regularly myself, but the more I personally learned about Factom, the less concerned I became with market vicissitudes. Yes, I often wish I bought at 0.8x instead of 1x the day before, but ... the important thing is to get in (if that's what you choose) at the right order of magnitude, not at a percentage discount to a previous price.
—If you believe whales are manipulating the market, and if you believe a lot of what we've been seing lately is large players trying to shake out weak hands, then ... if you sell, they win. Something to think about ... 
—This isn't advice to continue to hold FCT, much less to add to your holdings. The most important point IMO is just to be as informed as possible, to focus on a bigger-picture view when available (i.e. for the charts: when it doubt, zoom out), and to avoid playing into a whale's hands.

[D-Lux]

Thoughts on where the FCT price will be post-M2?