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Author Topic: Who will trigger article 50 to offically start brexit?  (Read 462 times)
Buffer Overflow (OP)
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June 26, 2016, 08:44:05 PM
 #1

An interesting post I found on the internet:-

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If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign.

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June 26, 2016, 08:58:34 PM
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This could kill the conservative party. There will probably be mayhem in the streets if they don't get on with it.

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June 26, 2016, 09:32:04 PM
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This could kill the conservative party. There will probably be mayhem in the streets if they don't get on with it.

More than just mayhem, it will be pitchforks at the least, do they want to risk it?
Article 50 needs to be done ASAP.

Now when do I arm myself  Grin

And its gone.
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June 26, 2016, 09:40:40 PM
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This could kill the conservative party. There will probably be mayhem in the streets if they don't get on with it.

More than just mayhem, it will be pitchforks at the least, do they want to risk it?
Article 50 needs to be done ASAP.

Now when do I arm myself  Grin

No-one is going to be triggering article 50.
Who in their right mind is going to knowingly plunge the country (and likely others) into certain recession? No-one.

The referendum is rendered void, Cameron saw to that.

P.S. The markets are going to realise this very soon and start rallying. Why not take advantage of it? I am.


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June 26, 2016, 09:43:40 PM
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P.S. The markets are going to realise this very soon and start rallying. Why not take advantage of it? I am.

I think you are mistaken. Capital hates uncertainty.
I have a large FTSE 100 short from Friday, average 6170, looking for 300 profit first thing tomorrow, probably more.

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June 26, 2016, 09:47:52 PM
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P.S. The markets are going to realise this very soon and start rallying. Why not take advantage of it? I am.

I think you are mistaken. Capital hates uncertainty.
I have a large FTSE 100 short from Friday, average 6170, looking for 300 profit first thing tomorrow, probably more.

Better hope that over the weekend the markets haven't realised that article 50 will never be triggered.

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June 26, 2016, 10:00:41 PM
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I don't believe that it's the end of the UK for one minute, but it could be the end of the conservatives. They don't conserve anything, but they live up to their abbreviated slogan " VOTE CON "

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June 26, 2016, 10:01:10 PM
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i think it depends on the emotional state of the brits right now.
they are waking up from a hangover and realise what they just did with their decision.

If majority is still for the brexit it will be hard to deny it to them especially when the rest of the EU memberstates are pounding for a article 50.

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tmfp
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June 26, 2016, 10:04:57 PM
 #9

P.S. The markets are going to realise this very soon and start rallying. Why not take advantage of it? I am.

I think you are mistaken. Capital hates uncertainty.
I have a large FTSE 100 short from Friday, average 6170, looking for 300 profit first thing tomorrow, probably more.

Better hope that over the weekend the markets haven't realised that article 50 will never be triggered.


Never say never.  Wink

Osborne's speaking early in the morning.
I wonder who wants to be leader of a Tory party that will be delivering a £30bn smack up the side of the head to their voters?

Extraordinary Claims require Extraordinary Evidence
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June 26, 2016, 10:05:18 PM
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Right now I feel like writing to the queen and asking her to do it. Smiley

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June 26, 2016, 10:07:26 PM
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Hmm. This is possibly the single most fascinating thing to happen in my living memory. Every single player is damned if they do or don't. I really, really have no idea how this is going to play out.
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June 26, 2016, 10:42:20 PM
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Well I've registered brexituncovered.com, and, if I move my euphemism, I'll put a blog on it. Maybe I can make a few bitcoins that way. Smiley

Offgrid campers allow you to enjoy life and preserve your health and wealth.
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June 26, 2016, 10:47:22 PM
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The world is about to see if BoJo has balls. Or not. If he's the next prime minister, as this is likely, he will have to pull that trigger. The FUK will leave the EU, Scotland will be independent and Ireland will reunite. He'll be in every history books for a while, up to that day when nobody will remember what was England.

I used to be a citizen and a taxpayer. Those days are long gone.
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June 26, 2016, 10:56:22 PM
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Here's Boris setting out his stall.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/26/i-cannot-stress-too-much-that-britain-is-part-of-europe--and-alw/

I think he's overestimating the EU's willingness to play ball after we've shat in their faces. Even before this they must've been royally sick of the UK. I'm sure some good sense of some sort will prevail eventually.

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June 27, 2016, 01:35:22 AM
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It seems impossible to leave the European Socialist Democratic Union. Once you are in its never out? They said the same thing about USSR...

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