for the POS scheme to work, block generation needs to be competitive. Also at any time the differential of stake dS added to the network must not be greater than the existing stake S. Assuming proportionality between stake and stake generation power. In fact what you want is the added stake generation power d(SGP) to be less than the stake generation power (SGP) being online at any given moment.
I'm not sure what do you mean by "differential of stake", but I really do not see why do you assume that parity is enough to keep network safe.
Do not forget that attacker can try again and again, boosting his chances to generate a consecutive chain of blocks.
Assuming that the POS difficulty is equilibrated, one could assume that the stake generation power of the network is proportional to the current difficulty. It should thus be easy to estimate the stake generation power required to overcome the network at any given time. I have some experience with physics, so I may try to express this in terms of mathematical equations.
It would be much easier to make a simulation, it's pretty much trivial.
BTW the major problem I see is that if difficulty is high enough incentive to mine diminishes: basically, you might need to keep your computer online for a whole year to get a chance to earn 1%. Unless you have a lot of stake, it makes no sense. And even then, aren't there better things to do with your money?
I think in the end it makes PPCoin security relatively shitty: only a fraction of coins will be used as a stake, and attacker will get a boost from repeated attempts.
What happens when you move stake offline for a while is that your stake matures and gets charged in terms of stake generation power. There is a cap of 90 days to prevent supercharging stake.
Oh, I've missed this... It makes things easier to analyze.
Basically, we can consider only a case where there is a plenty of active stake, so almost all of it already got to 90 days limit. Attacker's coins will be at 90 days limit too.
Thus probability that attacker mines next PoS block is approximately p = attacker's_stake/total_active_stake.
Probability to mine next k blocks is approximately p^k. Now we can calculate expected wait until first success as a mean of geometric distribution, it is 1/p^k.
So if you have 25% of active stake mean time to double-spend is 1/(0.25^6) = 4096, around one month... Not bad.
Obviously, you need less than 25% of coins. It is hard to say how much less, but likely a lot less. Since once PPCoin stake mining gets competitive, it is a fool's errand.