serious Crash Poll

[Ichthyo]

instead of trolling and bickering around, lets take a somewhat more serious snapshot of current speculator's emotions here.

We "all know" a serious Crash is imminent. Well or at least a correction Maybe we're just dreaming it up, hoping for a better buying opportunity....


Anyway, what is your guess regarding the current market dynamics? Assuming there will be some permanent downward move (not just a flash-ditch and immediate sell back). Where do you see the new equilibrium after such an event?

[zkay]

I think if it does wind up correcting down, that we'll still stay in the low to mid 30s. My reasoning is that current massive holders (100k+ btc) won't want to see it devalued again like 2011, and will manipulate the market or do whatever it takes to hold that price level.

Everyone being so bullish does have me a little worried..

[lucif]

Weekly sma 20 aka middle bollinger

[Piper67]

There should be another option: this poll is stupid.

[Ichthyo]

There should be another option: this poll is stupid.

Basically you have a point. I've edited the poll and added a "don't care" option

[labestiol]

The amount of USD in the orderbook is growing exponentially. Yesterday, bitcoin was the bloomberg buzzword of the day. Should I continue ?

To me we still have a long way to go before a serious correction, as crazy as it sounds.

[Qoheleth]

Barring a disastrous technological or legal black swan (Gox robbed again, ECDSA broken, Bitcoin outlawed, &c), I can't imagine dipping below $5 and am willing to bet we won't dip below $12 either.

Anything else, well, we'll see. Other than the kodiak in the room, news has generally been bullish; how these forces will play out - and whether the next major correction will take minutes or months to materialize - is anyone's guess at this point.

[cheat_2_win]

Barring a disastrous technological or legal black swan (Gox robbed again, ECDSA broken, Bitcoin outlawed, &c), I can't imagine dipping below $5 and am willing to bet we won't dip below $12 either.

Anything else, well, we'll see. Other than the kodiak in the room, news has generally been bullish; how these forces will play out - and whether the next major correction will take minutes or months to materialize - is anyone's guess at this point.

Except if Bitcoin is outlawed. Everything that has been outlawed in the history of human civilization has gone up in price. I expect that to hold true in case of Bitcoin as well.

[zkay]

Barring a disastrous technological or legal black swan (Gox robbed again, ECDSA broken, Bitcoin outlawed, &c), I can't imagine dipping below $5 and am willing to bet we won't dip below $12 either.

Anything else, well, we'll see. Other than the kodiak in the room, news has generally been bullish; how these forces will play out - and whether the next major correction will take minutes or months to materialize - is anyone's guess at this point.

A very fair, even handed post. Kudos to you, sir.

[throughput]

C'mon, don't you see the anti-PR regarding Bitcoin around there?
And that is while BTC is being actively overbought and the bubble inflates.
Consider what happens on bubble collapse?

Some ppl will be well motivated to create a LOUD panic in the Internet at least.
I feel myself already motivated to support it too, BTW.

My bet is as low as 0.5 $/BTC.

[piramida]

My bet is as low as 0.5 $/BTC.

where are you guys crawling from under? i would understand such posts in 2011 (still laughable, but at least there was a selling pressure and bitcoin project sounded abandoned), but now, you got to be really out of this world to seriously type such rubbish.

[Qoheleth]

My bet is as low as 0.5 $/BTC.

Don't get me wrong. I think it's still possible that this is a bubble, and that the pop will be nasty.

But would you like to know why I consider $5/coin an absolute floor, barring some impossible-to-forsee disaster?

Observe.



This is a chart of the three most stable months in BTC's history. During this time, the BTC price was never more than 10% away from $5/coin. After that, the price began to steadily increase - reaching $15, crashing to $8, floating around $10-$13 for a while, and then finally beginning the rally that is still going on today.

But those three months of stability created an impression. There could be no bubble involved - there could be no bull run. There was confidence, for a time period that's still a significant portion of Bitcoin's whole history, that BTC were worth about $5.

To shatter such confidence would, in my view, require the king of all bear markets.

But if you're not convinced by that, then let me show you why expecting the price to drop below $2, barring some impossible-to-forsee disaster, is total fantasyland:



This is a chart of the end of 2011. After the Big Bubble popped, the BTC market was in a downtrend. Many predicted, on this very forum, that BTC was dying and it was just a matter of time.

The price got to $2 in mid-November. At that time, Mt. Gox experienced the biggest trading volume ever - a record that still has not been broken. For several days, the market threatened to break through $2/BTC. It did not. Even in the face of a bubble that brought the price above $1/BTC and had been slowly sputtering out for six months, even among doomsayers who believed with all their hearts that the Bitcoin experiment had failed and the bubble was a one-time event... even in such a climate, people wanted BTC for $2. People wanted them enough that the price never crossed that line. It was an insurmountable foundation of support, and from there the price began to climb again.

Now, the BTC price has beaten the previous bubble - market participants know that high prices were not a one-time opportunity. There are major online services that accept it, other than Silk Road. There's been media attention. In today's environment, what could possibly hurt confidence in the currency any worse than it was hurt in November 2011? What could possibly make people less confident in BTC than they were a year and a half ago, when they bought in with all their might at $2 a coin?

[Jaw3bmasters]

The price has already corrected. Maybe the OP missed it........

And whoever is waiting to buy-in when price drop.....It's gonna be a long cold winter wait.

[Wekkel]

Many people are willing tot put in $1000-ands at $2 and wait for years on end whether BTC gets a role in payment systems. Best bet in your entire life.

[afbitcoins]

 I think we are still sitting in a long term rising channel (have disscussed this a few times in detail in my blog) and at the moment not yet in bubble territory although yes near the top of the channel we are in. I think there is a chance price could flatten off at this level for a while or drop slightly while consolidating recent gains but I don't see a serious crash or even just a crash from this level. If we break through $50 we may start heading up towards $200 for a bitcoin with little further resistance. If that happens then I will start thinking we are heading into another bubble like 2011. I still think seeing a price of $500 is not out of the question in 2013 crazy though that sounds.