Butterfly Labs 60 - Is there any point at this point? (2013/03)

[bitcoinnix]

From what I've seen about the pre-order stats (tens of thousands of units) and when people are speculating that an order placed now would actually arrive (late summer or fall?), does anyone think a 60GH/s unit that arrived in August or September has any hope of paying itself off, let alone making a profit? 

It seems ASICs look like a double edged sword, everyone said typical GPU ROI was 200%, but with the skyrocket of ASICs I don't know if any ROI is going to be possible.

Opinions?

[jzcjca00]

I think we missed the boat.  People who ordered last June might get their rigs in April and make enough to pay them off in a few months.  But for anyone thinking of purchasing one now, you're unlikely to get the unit until late summer, possibly later, and the difficulty will be so high that you'll be lucky to cover your electric bill.

Of course, it depends on what happens with the price of Bitcoins.  If there's more negative press, maybe some serious software glitches, and the price drops far enough, then maybe more people will cancel their orders, you'll get yours sooner and mine lots of BTC before the difficulty gets ridiculous.  Unfortunately, in this scenario, you wind up with a lot of BTC that aren't worth much.   

However, if the price keeps going up and up, BFL will keep pumping out more and more units, and the difficulty will get so high that your share of the pot won't pay for the electricity.

We might do well in this scenario: Bitcoins crash so bad that people stop mining, but a few hardy souls persist.  I have a 18kW solar array on my roof, so electricity costs me essentially nothing.  I can afford to keep mining a lot longer than most people.  Then, after accumulating BTC for a few years, there is a resurgence.  Suddenly, we're rich!  Unfortunately, that series of events seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, back in reality, I think would-be miners ordering today will never repay their investment.   

[bitcoinnix]

I am in the same situation so I invested in this mining company: http://cognitivemining.com/

They already had asic purchase, the first actually. So now we can own part of that first purchase!

I think I'm going to dump that $1300 into LiteCoin - it seems a more likely shot of keeping it's value.

[georgeu2000]

I think we missed the boat.  People who ordered last June might get their rigs in April and make enough to pay them off in a few months.  But for anyone thinking of purchasing one now, you're unlikely to get the unit until late summer, possibly later, and the difficulty will be so high that you'll be lucky to cover your electric bill.

Of course, it depends on what happens with the price of Bitcoins.  If there's more negative press, maybe some serious software glitches, and the price drops far enough, then maybe more people will cancel their orders, you'll get yours sooner and mine lots of BTC before the difficulty gets ridiculous.  Unfortunately, in this scenario, you wind up with a lot of BTC that aren't worth much.   

However, if the price keeps going up and up, BFL will keep pumping out more and more units, and the difficulty will get so high that your share of the pot won't pay for the electricity.

We might do well in this scenario: Bitcoins crash so bad that people stop mining, but a few hardy souls persist.  I have a 18kW solar array on my roof, so electricity costs me essentially nothing.  I can afford to keep mining a lot longer than most people.  Then, after accumulating BTC for a few years, there is a resurgence.  Suddenly, we're rich!  Unfortunately, that series of events seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, back in reality, I think would-be miners ordering today will never repay their investment.   

I agree. It's the people who bought first who will reap the rewards. In the next few months the difficulty will increase significantly, and the ROI on ASICs will go down.

[coinandable]

Nobody knows fur sure, how profitable mining will be in the future. It depends on bitcoin price and the difficulty. At the current price ($50) and with a difficulty of 80-100,000,000 a 60GH/s unit will still pay for itself within 6-9 months. Not too bad compared with other investments. 

Peronally I think that diff wont go over 100,000,000 within the next 12 months but of course, I'm not sure about that.

The first people that ordered ASICs with pay off their units in  a few days (if BFL ships soon this is). Ordering now might still make sense - IF you have trust that BFL will deliver at all.

Use this calculator and decide for yourself: http://www.bitcoinx.com/profit/

[fox20]

no one have this machine right now~~~

[Werner]

Check this out: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=159808.0

You can buy the first order here!

[BlindedbyBTC]

I am in the same situation so I invested in this mining company: http://cognitivemining.com/

They already had asic purchase, the first actually. So now we can own part of that first purchase!

Always late to the party, wish I knew about that company when they made their IPO.  Just curious, what was the price per share? 

[jwhitman]

I think at this point the responsible thing to do is maintain a healthy level of skepticism as to whether or not there will actually be a product release at all.

[MagicBit15]

I think we missed the boat.  People who ordered last June might get their rigs in April and make enough to pay them off in a few months.  But for anyone thinking of purchasing one now, you're unlikely to get the unit until late summer, possibly later, and the difficulty will be so high that you'll be lucky to cover your electric bill.

Of course, it depends on what happens with the price of Bitcoins.  If there's more negative press, maybe some serious software glitches, and the price drops far enough, then maybe more people will cancel their orders, you'll get yours sooner and mine lots of BTC before the difficulty gets ridiculous.  Unfortunately, in this scenario, you wind up with a lot of BTC that aren't worth much.   

However, if the price keeps going up and up, BFL will keep pumping out more and more units, and the difficulty will get so high that your share of the pot won't pay for the electricity.

We might do well in this scenario: Bitcoins crash so bad that people stop mining, but a few hardy souls persist.  I have a 18kW solar array on my roof, so electricity costs me essentially nothing.  I can afford to keep mining a lot longer than most people.  Then, after accumulating BTC for a few years, there is a resurgence.  Suddenly, we're rich!  Unfortunately, that series of events seems unlikely.

Meanwhile, back in reality, I think would-be miners ordering today will never repay their investment.   

I agree. It's the people who bought first who will reap the rewards. In the next few months the difficulty will increase significantly, and the ROI on ASICs will go down.

Just join a pool TBH