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Author Topic: The House always wins.  (Read 8228 times)
deecryptic (OP)
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July 04, 2016, 12:23:06 PM
 #1

I am not a gambler but wanted to give it a try for some fun experiment and some time I had left with, whatever I gambled with 25$ (with the sake of checking how long I can prolong my loss). The rest of the story continues.

So this is my case from FreeBitCo.in but sure would be the case with any Gambling website. Modified the more famous martingale script available all over the internet so that it extends the game play with some added tricks and tweaks to the script so that it takes its own time to run, with little profits along the way.

The saying of being provably fair is also not a valid point. It is written inside the system that it has to make sure the user loses if he/she is dumb enough to play for a long period of time.

What you have in hand to say that the system is fair?

1) Client- Seed

What the house has to say that we can screw you anytime?

1) Your Constant incoming Client seed,
2) Server Seed,
3) Server Seed Hash,

Not enough?

4) Bitcoin Address,
5) Email address,

Still not enough?

6) IP Address.

and there may be several more to detect that its coming from you and follow behind you to screw you.

Game Play.

Deposited BTC0.02800000 (around 17.5$ which was what got left after the high transfer fees of VirWox(Card/SLL/BTC conversion)) to the account. Ran my script for several hours with no issues at all (saw several timeouts in between  Roll Eyes ) and started accumulating satoshis. The max balance I had before being defeated is nearly 0.04700000 where in I spent a good 12 hours of play.

A Calculation, showing step play starting with 1 satoshi.
http://imgur.com/Bpl0R2V

My Logic for Play.
Script is simple which works on Payouts ranging 30-35, running the values over and over again for small periods and then increment step by step till loses of 137 steps. Once it reaches step 138 it multiplies 1.035 by itself and plays the next round. At each step there is a win for sure until you are screwed by the System showing "Insufficient Balance to play".

Their Logic To Screw
They work with averages. Average the payout values to keep the game going for sometime. Then suddenly give the game less than required averages (for e.g. give contiguous wins within 5 to 10 steps on several occasions so that a single game can be extended beyond an average which decides to screw you out of shape.). On the way of the game they keep a calculation of how much balance you have, with the number of wagers you made and with the value of bet you are playing and how long you can go. If they feel they are near to 70% of the averaged game and the balance has not dropped sufficiently they say they give up and give you a win (but not always).

Took screenshots of big losing streaks (but a win) along the way (though was not able to take screenshot of the final losing streak of 254 consecutive loses with start of 19 satoshis. BTW went till 310 continuous loses with start of 1 satoshi but eventually won.)

http://imgur.com/x5q6gii

http://imgur.com/AZweLc2

http://imgur.com/mTW8PSn

How does dice scripts survive.
1) My best assumption is by the bets that users put by collecting all the satoshis earned from external faucets just to blow it away on gambling websites. So Dice websites work as if they are the aggregator of all the faucets (The House always wins). But this will only work till the google adsense pay is good and bitcoin price doesn't skyrocket.

2) People like me experimenting with no actual worth of experiment.

3) People who have lots of stash to blow.

Conclusion:
You can never beat the system. If it decides to screw you, you are screwed.
What ever you do you are gonna give it all to the house back (along with the winnings) in the long run from any of the Dice websites. 
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July 04, 2016, 01:18:29 PM
 #2

I am not a gambler but wanted to give it a try for some fun experiment and some time I had left with, whatever I gambled with 25$ (with the sake of checking how long I can prolong my loss). The rest of the story continues.

So this is my case from FreeBitCo.in but sure would be the case with any Gambling website. Modified the more famous martingale script available all over the internet so that it extends the game play with some added tricks and tweaks to the script so that it takes its own time to run, with little profits along the way.

The saying of being provably fair is also not a valid point. It is written inside the system that it has to make sure the user loses if he/she is dumb enough to play for a long period of time.

What you have in hand to say that the system is fair?

1) Client- Seed

What the house has to say that we can screw you anytime?

1) Your Constant incoming Client seed,
2) Server Seed,
3) Server Seed Hash,

Not enough?

4) Bitcoin Address,
5) Email address,

Still not enough?

6) IP Address.

and there may be several more to detect that its coming from you and follow behind you to screw you.

Game Play.

Deposited BTC0.02800000 (around 17.5$ which was what got left after the high transfer fees of VirWox(Card/SLL/BTC conversion)) to the account. Ran my script for several hours with no issues at all (saw several timeouts in between  Roll Eyes ) and started accumulating satoshis. The max balance I had before being defeated is nearly 0.04700000 where in I spent a good 12 hours of play.

A Calculation, showing step play starting with 1 satoshi.


My Logic for Play.
Script is simple which works on Payouts ranging 30-35, running the values over and over again for small periods and then increment step by step till loses of 137 steps. Once it reaches step 138 it multiplies 1.035 by itself and plays the next round. At each step there is a win for sure until you are screwed by the System showing "Insufficient Balance to play".

Their Logic To Screw
They work with averages. Average the payout values to keep the game going for sometime. Then suddenly give the game less than required averages (for e.g. give contiguous wins within 5 to 10 steps on several occasions so that a single game can be extended beyond an average which decides to screw you out of shape.). On the way of the game they keep a calculation of how much balance you have, with the number of wagers you made and with the value of bet you are playing and how long you can go. If they feel they are near to 70% of the averaged game and the balance has not dropped sufficiently they say they give up and give you a win (but not always).

Took screenshots of big losing streaks (but a win) along the way (though was not able to take screenshot of the final losing streak of 254 consecutive loses with start of 19 satoshis. BTW went till 310 continuous loses with start of 1 satoshi but eventually won.)







How does dice scripts survive.
1) My best assumption is by the bets that users put by collecting all the satoshis earned from external faucets just to blow it away on gambling websites. So Dice websites work as if they are the aggregator of all the faucets (The House always wins). But this will only work till the google adsense pay is good and bitcoin price doesn't skyrocket.

2) People like me experimenting with no actual worth of experiment.

3) People who have lots of stash to blow.

Conclusion:
You can never beat the system. If it decides to screw you, you are screwed.
What ever you do you are gonna give it all to the house back (along with the winnings) in the long run from any of the Dice websites. 

It's a probability game. Every Gambling site using provably fair will ever make a profit with even a small house edge.

In individual cases, some user may profit from the site but as a whole the wining percentage is 49% and loosing is 51%. That 2% margin in long run will make the house rich.(1% in some sites).



.
.BIG WINNER!.
[15.00000000 BTC]


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July 04, 2016, 01:56:38 PM
 #3

Yes True.. If you have lots of Bitcoins, deposit, play, make some BTC's and be sensible enough to back out and withdraw. But the ones who play with smaller amounts are always the loser.

Guess what Dice Websites such as Freebitco.in has a massive user base of which 80% will be small timers who are here to lose. 2% will be Big Sharks who are there to make money from the rest of userbase. Rest 18% are the gamblers who decide on the 49%-51% of the house. (The numbers are theoretical assumptions.)

Eventually 2% constant income for the House.. The House always wins. Smiley Smiley
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July 04, 2016, 01:57:18 PM
 #4

tbh Im a gambler and I know that house always win and you cant win in the long run. I really understand it and that is the risk im taking. If that thing didnt put in their mind before playing, a newbie gambler or a gambler who loss much will say sites are scam which is definitely not. It just happen to them because of "in gambling house always win & you cant win in the long run". Gamblers should know that before playing.
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July 04, 2016, 02:08:36 PM
 #5

yeah that's right, the owner of the house always wins. proven many gambling sites that have sprung up because it profitable for homeowners.
and the average they can last a long time, because the owner of the house always wins.

.
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July 04, 2016, 02:09:49 PM
 #6

The house will always win overall. If you check a popular casinos bank roll every 12 months it's likely they'll never be at a loss at the end of a calander year.

Lucky people can win though but yes, overall the house will never lose in the long run.

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July 04, 2016, 02:28:46 PM
 #7

It is true from your explanation that you will never defeat the house, the house will always win. I have gambled for quite some time and I know that the longer you stay in the house, the more you expose yourself to loses. Gambling is a game of probability and it actually depends on your luck to win. If you are lucky enough to win some, then you better take your winnings and walk away to come back another day. If you become greedy and want to win more by staying long hours, the odds will turn against you and you will lose everything that you had accumulated plus your investment.
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July 04, 2016, 04:49:40 PM
 #8

How could you survive losing 256 times ? If you martingale that it would be like 999999btc unless u made 1 satoshi bets x256 in which case that's bull how can you lose so many times. If that's true then I'll say they cheating. I agree with almost everything you say! I dont trust these places either.
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July 04, 2016, 05:21:01 PM
 #9

People doesn't get understand the math. They think the martingale will work if they have great balances. But in the theory it can be red for 2000 times and you can't do anything about it.
That reminds me of a quote I heard a while back that went something like...

"The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math."

I think the same could be said about dice/gambling sites, although not everyone who gambles is there only to make money (some gamble for fun and consider the losses an entertainment expense).

The thing I keep in mind when playing a game where the house has an edge (even 1-2%), is this:  You will ALWAYS lose in the long run, always.  If you are lucky and win in the short-term, take the money and run.  The longer you keep playing, the better the chances of giving it all back (and then some).

So play and have fun and remember: It's not how many chips you win or lose, it's how many chips you walk away with and how much fun you had doing it.
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July 04, 2016, 06:10:35 PM
 #10

People doesn't get understand the math. They think the martingale will work if they have great balances. But in the theory it can be red for 2000 times and you can't do anything about it.
That reminds me of a quote I heard a while back that went something like...

"The lottery is a tax on people who are bad at math."

I think the same could be said about dice/gambling sites, although not everyone who gambles is there only to make money (some gamble for fun and consider the losses an entertainment expense).

The thing I keep in mind when playing a game where the house has an edge (even 1-2%), is this:  You will ALWAYS lose in the long run, always.  If you are lucky and win in the short-term, take the money and run.  The longer you keep playing, the better the chances of giving it all back (and then some).

So play and have fun and remember: It's not how many chips you win or lose, it's how many chips you walk away with and how much fun you had doing it.

That's clever and so true, it is like funneling your money into a coal chamber. Such a waste you can throw everything at it and never win your odds are so small even id you add everthing you eve made in your entire life time not even that amount will give you a decent chance. I don't know why some gamblers would consider gambling entertainment I think they fooling themselves and just use "entertainment expense" as an excuse to justify their losses to themselves. Really they just want to win like there rest of us.

 
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July 05, 2016, 02:46:41 AM
 #11

Yes, this is correct. But not fully accurate, House will make money from us that is I agree. But they will not always win sometimes we also win. There are a lot of people won big amount here, so this is lost on house right. So here our greed will decide that we win, or house will win.
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July 05, 2016, 02:53:20 AM
 #12

how much precetange win and lost your metode gamble
and how much profit in precentage is capital money
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July 12, 2016, 03:17:06 PM
 #13

That's clever and so true, it is like funneling your money into a coal chamber. Such a waste you can throw everything at it and never win your odds are so small even id you add everthing you eve made in your entire life time not even that amount will give you a decent chance. I don't know why some gamblers would consider gambling entertainment I think they fooling themselves and just use "entertainment expense" as an excuse to justify their losses to themselves. Really they just want to win like there rest of us.
Haha, yeah It's like burning your money except the money is not destroyed, the house keeps it.  Oh, and it's a lot more fun to lose money gambling than it is to toss it into a fire (or so I assume).   Smiley
But you don't need a lot of money to have a "decent chance", that's part of why people (myself included) gamble... it's the allure of winning big with a small bet.  Will you win big with a small bet?  Probably not, but it's certainly possible, it's happened before and will happen again.  People do hit it big on the gambling sites.

So here's one more thing to remember... the house wins over the LONG TERM, the odds always average out in the house's favor.  So if you play for the short term it is possible to win big but if you keep playing, odds (and math) say that you will end up with less than you started.

As for the "entertainment expense", I agree with you and disagree at the same time.  Sure, lots of people use excuses to justify gambling losses, but if you're using excuses when losing, step back and stop for a while... there's likely a bigger issue.
For the casual weekend gambler, the cost/loss is just another "night out".  We'd spend the same amount of money going to dinner and a movie as going out gambling.  Sometimes we'll pick a movie, sometimes gambling.  Sure, we want to win but the main purpose here is getting out and doing something when you're bored.  So yeah, some people use excuses but some actually do gamble just because it's fun and different.

Futurebit640... yes, I agree, the house doesn't always win.  When people win big, it is the house that loses.  And yes, greed plays a factor here because most people who win big turn around and gamble MORE and lose their winnings... so even when the house loses, they still win because most people will keep playing and lose what they won.  It is very difficult to cash out and walk away with a big win, those who can do that are winners in more way than one.
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July 13, 2016, 04:53:05 AM
 #14

You made 0.046 before you lost. If you had just done a 50/50 you would have had a better chance and you would have won 0.056. Because you lost you may as well had done a 50/50 then at least you have half a chance and you save 12 hours .....

 
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July 13, 2016, 05:23:05 AM
 #15

House will only win if you've lose all your money and you've nothing to bet. As long as you have money to make your negative profit to get back to zero, house will never win. After you've won big, stop from playing, that's the key .
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July 13, 2016, 06:50:21 AM
 #16

Thats right , good for your experiment , this is fact for a gambling , if you have a some tricks and the beginning your bet always win and trust your tricks, you're big wrongs. the long your turns bet maybe you will felling strange, little by little you lose and lose , then what happens?? you will lose have a lot your money in your wallet , this is a fact for gambling to run long bet.
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July 13, 2016, 07:51:23 AM
 #17

this is how gambling works it is a game of risk, you take a risk and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't. and when there is a house edge you have to know that so you change your strategy accordingly.

but what i don't get here is that why did you deposit on FreeBitCo.in it is a faucet! if you want to deposit in dice sites do it on a legit dice site that also has a better autobet experience and also a good provably fair system.

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July 13, 2016, 08:41:17 AM
 #18

The house always wins only if the player is playing regularly and long time, then surely at the end they will be in loss because the gambling system of the site just caches your strategy of playing and reverse it on long time at that point of time your bet makes you lose and in connection to that you make more same bet and system just reverse everything and at the last you lose everything.

But their are some players who are playing for some time and when they make some profit they just withdraw and then go for another site. they dont play long time.
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July 13, 2016, 01:34:29 PM
 #19

You made 0.046 before you lost. If you had just done a 50/50 you would have had a better chance and you would have won 0.056. Because you lost you may as well had done a 50/50 then at least you have half a chance and you save 12 hours .....


AFAIK dice games never be on 50/50 because there is still.house edge which mean you will not have 50% chance on 2x odds, moreover OP play on that freebitco.in, what I do know that their site have higher odds so that means you eill have higher chance to lose rather than winning there
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July 13, 2016, 03:25:28 PM
 #20

A casino can be fair at 50/50 and still make profit. In Bitcoin this is possible because they can process a lot of transactions and get fees from every transaction, so even if it's 50/50, they will still remain profitable but they will require a decent amount of transaction volume to get on the green profits, because they will need a lot of people on their service to get a big amount from the fees.
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