Four days to the halving. Who's giving up on mining?

[Nagle]

Four days to go.  For many machines, ROI now becomes negative. Who's out?

[philipma1957]

Four days to go.  For many machines, ROI now becomes negative. Who's out?

No one will quit  for the first adjustment after.

They will hope and pray for a price increase.


But if price is 650 for the next 30 days  a lot will quit.

[Posum578]

If only halving dorm 25 to 12.5 make miners quit from mining
What will happen if block reward already 0 and miner only get from transaction fee, is there will be no miners?

Price wouldn low, because only miners whoo will decide to sell i and ofcourse they will not sell it for low price

[alh]

If only halving dorm 25 to 12.5 make miners quit from mining
What will happen if block reward already 0 and miner only get from transaction fee, is there will be no miners?

Price wouldn low, because only miners whoo will decide to sell i and ofcourse they will not sell it for low price

Just to be clear, the BTC "reward" per block won't fall to less than 1 BTC for about 16 YEARS. It's not clear to me if it gets to zero ever, it might just continue to shrink to near nothing, but NOT actually zero. I don't completely understand the really "way out" scenarios, but it will certainly become insignificant (or irrelevant) long before then. I'll be long dead by then, as I expect many folks on here will.

[philipma1957]

12.50

6.25 in four years

3.125 in eight years

1.6125 in twelve years


0.80625 in sixteen years

0.403125 in twenty years

0.2016125 in twentyfour years. I will be eighty three years old

0.10080625 in twenty eight years. I will be eighty seven years old

It will be interesting if some one digs up this thread and posts to it in the further future.  Say 12 years from now.

If btc is still doing well I would think coins will be 10000 or more.

[bomberb17]

Those with 'free' electricity will continue mining for ever.
Those with paid electricity will shut their miners down if its less efficient than a S7.

[Daifotis]

Those with 'free' electricity will continue mining for ever.
Those with paid electricity will shut their miners down if its less efficient than a S7.

Do you think with just a free electricity, mining is just as easy as what you think?

How about the maintenance? how many rigs they have? Current mining difficulty? Place or location?

[philipma1957]

Those with 'free' electricity will continue mining for ever.
Those with paid electricity will shut their miners down if its less efficient than a S7.

Do you think with just a free electricity, mining is just as easy as what you think?

How about the maintenance? how many rigs they have? Current mining difficulty? Place or location?

Asics run fairly easy and trouble free.

A simple downclock of freq allows for longer running with less burnouts.

Here is an s-9  batch 4  clock is 462 not 600

I ran an s-7 batch 2 on a downclock in a 2 cent- 3 cent  power setup for 9 months it needed 2 restarts in 9 months.
Since it was in a place that needed the heat it was pretty close to maintenance free.
It cost 15 usd a  month to run it at 2 cent and 22.50 to run it at 3 cent.

Many people have setups like this  1 or 2 machines at 0 or no cost to run and they can use the heat the gear makes.

[unholycactus]

Those with 'free' electricity will continue mining for ever.
Those with paid electricity will shut their miners down if its less efficient than a S7.

Do you think with just a free electricity, mining is just as easy as what you think?

How about the maintenance? how many rigs they have? Current mining difficulty? Place or location?

Just like philipma said, if you only have a few miners, once they are set up it's not much trouble. So people will indeed continue to mine.
Unless your miners are so inefficient that they have trouble reaching the minimum payout of your pool, I would just keep them running.

[ZedZedNova]

Unless your miners are so inefficient that they have trouble reaching the minimum payout of your pool, I would just keep them running.

This is when lottery mining kicks in, although I would't want to be lottery mining with a 1,500 watt miner, unless you use the heat from the lottery miner to heat your room/house/whatever.

Cheers,

- zed

[gbBit]

Those with 'free' electricity will continue mining for ever.
Those with paid electricity will shut their miners down if its less efficient than a S7.

Do you think with just a free electricity, mining is just as easy as what you think?

How about the maintenance? how many rigs they have? Current mining difficulty? Place or location?

Asics run fairly easy and trouble free.

A simple downclock of freq allows for longer running with less burnouts.

Here is an s-9  batch 4  clock is 462 not 600

I ran an s-7 batch 2 on a downclock in a 2 cent- 3 cent  power setup for 9 months it needed 2 restarts in 9 months.
Since it was in a place that needed the heat it was pretty close to maintenance free.
It cost 15 usd a  month to run it at 2 cent and 22.50 to run it at 3 cent.

Many people have setups like this  1 or 2 machines at 0 or no cost to run and they can use the heat the gear makes.

I have a S3 mining on "free to me" electricity and I'm thinking of getting a S9 and and down-clocking it as Phil mentions here due to the amount mined after halving will be so insignificant.

[helloeverybody]

Before stopping any of your miners its worth bearing in mind that the last halving it took something like a couple of months before we actually got a price increase, It may be the same this time around as well. If not then surely miners could still be run with the speculative view that bitcoin will rise in price in the future?

[Cuidler]

Before stopping any of your miners its worth bearing in mind that the last halving it took something like a couple of months before we actually got a price increase, It may be the same this time around as well. If not then surely miners could still be run with the speculative view that bitcoin will rise in price in the future?

Maybe home miners who dont care about operational costs because this electricity cost represent very small amount in the home budget anyway, but those who tread mining as a business and running many mining units must be in profit because they must pay big electricity operational costs, and it would make more sence to speculate by buying Bitcoins at exchange instead and pay for the Bitcoin less this way.

But one or two weeks mining at loss might be the max before switching off for such miners, so I dont expect much switching off first few blocks right after the halving, it takes time to react. But waiting many months at operational loss is not very likely to happen.

[shield132]

No, I amn't giving up on mining. I will mine while I am earning something. I would just keep my antminers running. I think that after block reward, many people will sell their bitcoin and price will get down, so I think giving up on mining isn't good if you earn at least something.

[leowonderful]

Well, for starters, the price of bitcoin is WAY too low, we'll be seeing smaller profits than we were expecting, and it looks like BTC won't rise like we thought, but instead stagnate near 700. Looks like difficulty will drop quite a bit, and hashrate will drop as well when the S7's and Avalons don't make anything. There's nothing to push the increase of bitcoin besides the halving itself, and some people will keep pushing until they see the negative roi in their face.

[Xircom]

For sure the BTC price is too high at the moment. The Halving has an effect short term, but the real price of BTC will be around 450-500 $
If we look at the BTC Price most of 2015, we has a price range going from 220,- $ to 280,-$ and that price range survived almost a year and the diff increase was almost flat.
After halving we will see the price settle in that area of 500-550 $ (is my guess) and go from there until next hype or Halving with some small bumps on the road.
Either you are in long term on the BTC game or you are out. BTC is a comercial game being runned by Chinese. You need to spend at least 50-100K on new generation gear every half a year to follow up on the farms in China, but you will never be as big becasue of power prices.

If the Chinese do not see this and react, it will evntual be the death of BTC because of centralisation, but kick me if the Chinese hasnt already seen that in the mirror.

[Dadiansun]

Either you are in long term on the BTC game or you are out. BTC is a comercial game being runned by Chinese. You need to spend at least 50-100K on new generation gear every half a year to follow up on the farms in China, but you will never be as big becasue of power prices.

If the Chinese do not see this and react, it will evntual be the death of BTC because of centralisation, but kick me if the Chinese hasnt already seen that in the mirror.

The Bitmain CEO said 30-40% of the miners are exported. So there will be less concentration in the future.

[notlist3d]

Either you are in long term on the BTC game or you are out. BTC is a comercial game being runned by Chinese. You need to spend at least 50-100K on new generation gear every half a year to follow up on the farms in China, but you will never be as big becasue of power prices.

If the Chinese do not see this and react, it will evntual be the death of BTC because of centralisation, but kick me if the Chinese hasnt already seen that in the mirror.

The Bitmain CEO said 30-40% of the miners are exported. So there will be less concentration in the future.

Do you have the source on this one?  Also what was date out of curiosity?   I have not see Bitmain talk about sells numbers much so would be interesting to read this.

The problem with less concentration is the same places have low electricity price for the most part.   That does not change on having low electricity so  I don't see a big surge in less concentrated but I would be happy to be wrong.

[RodeoX]

Every time we halve we go through this. 

Mining will always settle on the smallest profitable fee. It might not be as much what some miners want, but it is all they are going to get.

[Gohs]

This might mean that btc miners will close shop and go mine some budding altcoin like XRP or dodgecoin till those ones become less profitable.

This could also mean that the amount of btc in circulation will not change much and the price will be relatively stable for a long while... not bad for the economy.