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Author Topic: Are you ready for an 80% difficulty increase in about a week?  (Read 3730 times)
jasonk
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June 12, 2011, 12:59:47 AM
 #1

Currently 10.5 blocks are being solved per hour.  I'm guessing that the next difficulty increase will be quite high... about 80%.  Thats just my guess, if you have an actual estimation based on the current rate, post.

With the huge dip in BTC price, and the difficulty increase coming in a week, this could become not very profitable very quickly!  The price needs to increase again in 1 week or a lot of people will be forced to stop mining!

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k
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June 12, 2011, 01:01:40 AM
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going to happen in less than a week at this rate. will take less than 4 days
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June 12, 2011, 01:01:55 AM
 #3

I'm ready!  I don't mine anyway!

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

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Sjalq
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June 12, 2011, 01:02:28 AM
 #4

With the price collapse I think it's going to go the other direction, like earlier this year.

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mjsbuddha
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June 12, 2011, 01:02:44 AM
 #5

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.
jasonk
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June 12, 2011, 01:03:43 AM
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I'm ready!  I don't mine anyway!

Haha, you're an investor then?

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June 12, 2011, 01:06:34 AM
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I'm ready!  I don't mine anyway!

Haha, you're an investor then?

Yup, daytrading is easy here.  I ratched up a $100 starting pot up over ten times in the past 6 weeks, and I just bought back in again.  I expect to sell again by Tuesday.  Eventually, users are going to start noticing the patterns, and the price movements will not be nearly as profitable or predictable; but for me mining was never a likely endeavor.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
jasonk
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June 12, 2011, 01:07:47 AM
 #8

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

3 to 4 times more profitable.... right... I think YOU'RE trolling.  So that's like mining today @ $3-4 a bitcoin at current rates.  Who the hell would mine at the current difficulty level for $3-4?  If you pay for power, you'd be lucky to make more than a couple of dollars a day.... I call BS.

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ArtForz
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June 12, 2011, 01:10:04 AM
 #9

Me.

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mjsbuddha
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June 12, 2011, 01:28:57 AM
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The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

3 to 4 times more profitable.... right... I think YOU'RE trolling.  So that's like mining today @ $3-4 a bitcoin at current rates.  Who the hell would mine at the current difficulty level for $3-4?  If you pay for power, you'd be lucky to make more than a couple of dollars a day.... I call BS.

don't believe me look here. http://www.tvori.info/bitcoin/charts/ compare where the pretty green line was on april first to where it is now. I said 3 or 4 times more profitable, not 3 or 4 times the price.
demoncrest
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June 12, 2011, 01:33:21 AM
 #11

I am, because the price per bitcoin will follow the difficulty price close enough to 1:1 for me to care.

derp.

scare tactics to get rid of people and make it not end up being as big of an increase? lulz.
Sukrim
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June 12, 2011, 01:44:58 AM
 #12

I am, because the price per bitcoin will follow the difficulty price close enough to 1:1 for me to care.

It can be and has in the past been for VERY long stretches far less profitable than now.

Currently BTC are overvalued (considering difficulty) a lot still. Most likely incoming bank transfers to MtGox on monday will catch the bursting bubble and let the price shoot up to the next one though. Roll Eyes

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bcpokey
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June 12, 2011, 01:52:46 AM
 #13

80% difficulty aint happening just FYI. We're seeing most of the $30 / BTC rigs coming online right now (giving shipping time and whatnot), all the tail end of the 5850s and 5830s that were selling out. But remember those all sold out. Now the $/BTC bubble popped and 58xx cards that are easy to acquire are gone, the growth rate will definitely definitely slow way way way down. After this 45% increase we will probably see a 15% increase next round.

If the prices do shoot way way way back up on monday which is possible then we could potentially see network power increase but still nothing near 80%. Regardless, mining is still worth bling. Good times.
k
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June 12, 2011, 01:57:03 AM
 #14

Currently 10.5 blocks are being solved per hour.  I'm guessing that the next difficulty increase will be quite high... about 80%.  Thats just my guess, if you have an actual estimation based on the current rate, post.


i'll go with a ~65% increase to ~930000 (02:00 15th June 2011)
trentzb
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June 12, 2011, 02:20:41 AM
 #15

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

3 to 4 times more profitable.... right... I think YOU'RE trolling.  So that's like mining today @ $3-4 a bitcoin at current rates.  Who the hell would mine at the current difficulty level for $3-4?  If you pay for power, you'd be lucky to make more than a couple of dollars a day.... I call BS.

I pay for power and can still mine profitably even if the exchange rate dropped to $2 USD per BTC. Smiley
Veldy
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June 12, 2011, 02:47:26 AM
 #16

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

3 to 4 times more profitable.... right... I think YOU'RE trolling.  So that's like mining today @ $3-4 a bitcoin at current rates.  Who the hell would mine at the current difficulty level for $3-4?  If you pay for power, you'd be lucky to make more than a couple of dollars a day.... I call BS.

If you estimate $1.50 / day in electricity for me, which is more than I pay [haven't checked recent bill to be sure what the KWh pricing is, so I am assuming for now the worst case of 10 cents], then I have a little way to go yet and I am what is now considered a fairly slow miner I think, with a little over 1GH/s.  Yes, the difficulty will suck [damn the greedy bastards who  are putting MASSIVE hardware on line ... some are taking double digit percentages of each rounds payout on major pools], but still remain profitable for a little while yet.  My investment is paid off and some profit has been made and I need to decide my route forward; hoard the relatively few coins I mine going forward, cash them strategically, reinvest in hardware which is VERY unlikely, or put the funds into another hobby or two that has slipped over the last few years (by far the most likely).

The people causing the difficulty push by continuously adding new hardware each and every week, unless they are the massive miners who will be the only ones standing before long [and making a small portion of what they are making today for all that massive computing power], will likely break even at best and more than likely not pay off their investment before they are "out-hashed" by the competition and have to give it up.  Anybody placing orders for hardware that is just adding a couple of GH/s, unless lucky with bitcoin pricing, and timing of selling coins, will almost certainly not pay off their rigs in my estimation (mining grade GPUs alone have sky rocketed in price to the dismay of some gamers ... although I prefer NVidia for gaming anyway).  If somebody is using credit or spending money they can't afford to lose for this, they should see a technical adviser and/or a shrink.

The days of the big plays are ending due to BLOCKS/HR not staying anywhere near 6 as intended.  Day trading, long term investment [of hopefully mined coins] or creation of business and products that participate in the bitcoin economy are the way of the future for most people.  People getting into mining now are probably starting too late unless using existing hardware or cheap additions to existing hardware only.  

It is also possible that I have no clue what I am talking about Smiley.

Still, I am a bit risk adverse when it comes to investments that are made without a fundamental basis [even technical investing is riskier than security and commodity trading and I notice the most obvious technical analysis out there always indicates his predictions were correct, but his analysis often comes after the events have started to occur thus making it easy to say that a technical indicator is proving to be correct; go back and see that there were some bad calls].

So, most of my posts going forward are going to be technical related, mining software and pools and little to no discussion of the future of bitcoin economy or politics other than perhaps noting difficulty increases [why bother actually?].  I don't trust bitcoin over the long term [a couple of years max and maybe a lot less unless major parties enter the arena] and I don't trust the U.S. Government at all on the subject [another reason I will quiet my talk in this area ... information I have seen suggests the big players be wary in particular, but probably the loud voices as well].

I have done what I set out to do; have fun, partake in something technical, interesting and a little bit profitable and I am happy with that.

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Veldy
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June 12, 2011, 02:49:38 AM
 #17

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

At more than 10 blocks / hr and have been between 8-10 for the entire difficulty period, it seems we will see at least 50%, but more likely 60% I think.  We will know in the next day or two.

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Basiley
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June 12, 2011, 03:27:19 AM
 #18

No Sad difficulty, go away !! :0)
jme621
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June 12, 2011, 03:28:28 AM
 #19

844 blocks to go, 11 blocks an hour = 3.19 days till diff change
estimated as of this post = 821945 or a  45% increase

jasonk
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June 12, 2011, 03:40:53 AM
 #20

The next difficulty is estimated at about 40% jump and even with the current drop in price my miners are about 3 to 4 times more profitable then when I started in April. Stop trolling.

3 to 4 times more profitable.... right... I think YOU'RE trolling.  So that's like mining today @ $3-4 a bitcoin at current rates.  Who the hell would mine at the current difficulty level for $3-4?  If you pay for power, you'd be lucky to make more than a couple of dollars a day.... I call BS.

don't believe me look here. http://www.tvori.info/bitcoin/charts/ compare where the pretty green line was on april first to where it is now. I said 3 or 4 times more profitable, not 3 or 4 times the price.

Looks more like 2x more profitable, rather than your claimed 3-4x... Maybe 3-4x before the bubble popped @ ~$30.

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