Effect of halving on mining network difficulty and transaction speeds

[jackg]

Is it possible that the halving will reduce the confirmation speeds even more then peole say they are doing at the moment? (as a result of the cost of electricity and maintenance needed by mining hardware).
This will then lead to the mining network difficulty decreasing, allowing for it to become more profitable to mine again (meaning that the confirmation speeds can become more stable again and change back to the way they were before)?

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[Lauda]

No. The halving can most certainly not have a direct impact on transaction speed. You don't seem to understand the difference between transaction speed (usually near-instant) and confirmation speed (10 minutes on average). The reason for which some people are experiencing unusual confirmation times is because they don't include adequate amount of fees.

This will then lead to the mining network difficulty decreasing, allowing for it to become more profitable to mine again (meaning that the blockchain can become more stable again)?

In the case that mining is not profitable for some miners, it would not be surprising to see (some) turn of their machines. In that case the difficulty would decrease (assuming that other 'groups' haven't turned on more gear). That does not mean "the blockchain can become more stable again". The blockchain always was and will be 'stable'.

[jackg]

No. The halving can most certainly not have a direct impact on transaction speed. You don't seem to understand the difference between transaction speed (usually near-instant) and confirmation speed (10 minutes on average). The reason for which some people are experiencing unusual confirmation times is because they don't include adequate amount of fees.

This will then lead to the mining network difficulty decreasing, allowing for it to become more profitable to mine again (meaning that the blockchain can become more stable again)?

In the case that mining is not profitable for some miners, it would not be surprising to see (some) turn of their machines. In that case the difficulty would decrease (assuming that other 'groups' haven't turned on more gear). That does not mean "the blockchain can become more stable again". The blockchain always was and will be 'stable'.

Thanks Lauda, I'll change that con confirmation speed.
So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?
I also meant that the confirmation speeds will become more stable, though there will still be multiple miners still in business (such as Hashnest, who have around 20-30PHs of S7 miners)

[Lauda]

Thanks Lauda, I'll change that con confirmation speed.

The correct wording (IMO): transaction speed (near instant) & confirmation speed (10 minutes on average).

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

If a decent amount of hashpower gets shut down, then it is likely that the average block timing will increase (until a difficulty adjustment).

I also meant that the confirmation speeds will become more stable, though there will still be multiple miners still in business (such as Hashnest, who have around 20-30PHs of S7 miners)

There is no 'stable', they are always stable. You can't say the network is unstable because you've included a fee that was lower than the recommended at time. The miners determine whether your TX will get included in a block (mostly based on the fees included).

[jackg]

Thanks Lauda, I'll change that con confirmation speed.

The correct wording (IMO): transaction speed (near instant) & confirmation speed (10 minutes on average).

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

If a decent amount of hashpower gets shut down, then it is likely that the average block timing will increase (until a difficulty adjustment).

I also meant that the confirmation speeds will become more stable, though there will still be multiple miners still in business (such as Hashnest, who have around 20-30PHs of S7 miners)

There is no 'stable', they are always stable. You can't say the network is unstable because you've included a fee that was lower than the recommended at time. The miners determine whether your TX will get included in a block (mostly based on the fees included).

I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!
But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own. They are always confirmed wihin a maximum of 15 minutes expected perameter for confirmations to bedone on my transactions!

[Lauda]

I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. That is indeed correct: If a sudden drop in the hashrate does occur, then the usual '10 minutes on average' would not be true until the next difficulty adjustement.

But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own.

I highly recommend ditching Coinbase for a desktop wallet.

[jackg]

I meant that it would nt be stable based on the time to confirm each block fluctuating in the network!

Okay, that makes a bit more sense. That is indeed correct: If a sudden drop in the hashrate does occur, then the usual '10 minutes on average' would not be true until the next difficulty adjustement.

But, I don't set my own transaction fees as I use coinbase who set their own.

I highly recommend ditching Coinbase for a desktop wallet.

I can't really use a desktop wallet as I'd have to store it externally to my actual computer in one of my external hard drives. Also, the initial installation takes a very long time and, I do have a torrent to download the entire blockchain but I am waiting to get 5 hours free when I can download it and not use my computer for anything else (or use my reapberry pis with torrenting software)!
Also, I like that coinbase cover transaction fees, I do have an ethereum wallet though and the bitcoin core ready to do a fall blockchain download!

[Laosai]

No. The halving can most certainly not have a direct impact on transaction speed. You don't seem to understand the difference between transaction speed (usually near-instant) and confirmation speed (10 minutes on average). The reason for which some people are experiencing unusual confirmation times is because they don't include adequate amount of fees.

From what I know it also can't impact confirmation time no?
It doesn't change anything to have fewer miners, difficulty is here to balance things back. Number of tx are defined by the size block, which won't move.

[Syke]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

[RyNinDaCleM]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

[matrix zion]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Which could create an incredible jam in transaction confirmations if lots of people suddenly turn off miners

[Holdaaja]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

[jackg]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Which could create an incredible jam in transaction confirmations if lots of people suddenly turn off miners

That is true, however the three main mining companies: BW, bitmain/hashnest and bitfury will not immediately turn of their miners.
Hashnest, who are at 30PH/s have to give their customers at least a few hours of warning time before they can turn off their devices.
As these companies cumulatively make up over 60% of the miners in use, then your suggestion will not happen immediately as these companies may lose more money as a result of the halving!

[jackg]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting don now...

I suppose that could be true too!
The mining difficulty, though, plays a large part in this! It hasn't actually inceased by very much though since then. But if it were to increase by around 5-10% there would be a massive effect on the sustainability of the machines in use!

[RyNinDaCleM]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

No, I didn't say they would, but the question was asked that if hashrate dropped, would it slow tx confirmations, and the answer is yes- until another retarget happens. An extreme case is if a lot of hashing power just stopped right now, it would absolutely be noticeable for the next 2000+/- blocks.

[Holdaaja]

So the confirmation speed may decrease if people do turn miners off and others do not tun miners on to make it more profitable?

No, the difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks so that confirmations will always average about 10 minutes.

Sure, but since a retarget just happened, if 50% of miners shut down right now, blocks would slow down for the next 2008 blocks

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.
25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago so I don't see why they would start shutting down now...

No, I didn't say they would, but the question was asked that if hashrate dropped, would it slow tx confirmations, and the answer is yes- until another retarget happens. An extreme case is if a lot of hashing power just stopped right now, it would absolutely be noticeable for the next 2000+/- blocks.

And I was just saying why there won't be 50% drop in hash rate with these prices.

[MayorMccheese]

Was there 50% less mining power 3 months ago? No, there wasn't.

About 20% lower hashrate, not quite 50%.
But the price also didn't double since then (that would be ~$800).

25*350$ = 8750$ and 12.5*640$ = 8000$ so miners are making almost the same now that they made 3 month ago

Well no.

[Lauda]

From what I know it also can't impact confirmation time no?
It doesn't change anything to have fewer miners, difficulty is here to balance things back. Number of tx are defined by the size block, which won't move.

It would have an impact on the block timing (confirmations) until the difficulty was re-adjusted. Depending on the time (in the adjustment interval) at which miners turn off their machines (I'm not saying that this is going to happen), it would be a very 'annoying' < 2016 blocks.

I can't really use a desktop wallet as I'd have to store it externally to my actual computer in one of my external hard drives. Also, the initial installation takes a very long time and, I do have a torrent to download the entire blockchain but I am waiting to get 5 hours free when I can download it and not use my computer for anything else (or use my reapberry pis with torrenting software)!

No, that's a full wallet. I was actually recommending SPV which is better than using web wallets IMO. A SPV wallet such as Electrum does not take up much space and requires very little time to set up.

And I was just saying why there won't be 50% drop in hash rate with these prices.

I don't think that we are going to see a drop in the hashrate (besides some temporary, small ones maybe).

[StarenseN]

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

[~Bitcoin~]

Only due to halving hashrate of mining will not be lowered some of the big miners have to left mining to see any significant change in difficulty.

24h post halving and the hashrate is now +1% since yesterday.

Source bitcoinwisdom.com

This is showing that miners are not leaving even though price doesn't get pumped after halving, showing price at 600$ range will be floor for next pump.