You can not cancel a order at Butterfly Labs

[smith88]

Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?

And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially.  But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable.  Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin)  as today.  Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true).  I'm betting on the BTC value rising.

[Aztec]

Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?

And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially.  But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable.  Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin)  as today.  Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true).  I'm betting on the BTC value rising.

So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??

[greyhawk]

Seems like some people are going to get very rich. Not cool that the BitCoins will be distributed so unevenly

That's the whole point of this exercise.

[Aztec]

That's the whole point of this exercise.

How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?

[greyhawk]

That's the whole point of this exercise.

How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?

Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.

[Aztec]

That's the whole point of this exercise.

How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?

Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.

I guess it is. Good luck to anyone who went for it early. Seems like they took a chance and it's just about to pay off big time for them. If I had a few grand I'd be tempted to buy bitcoins right now.

[smith88]

Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?

And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially.  But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable.  Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin)  as today.  Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true).  I'm betting on the BTC value rising.

So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??

I would do some studying on what exactly is this difficulty level.  Basically it is designed to increase to ensure that a block of bitcoins is only discovered every 8-10 minutes.  When the network expands in strength, the difficulty rises up to keep the block discovery at this 8-10 minute window (albeit I've seen it drop into the 7 minute range and a bit lower, but the network soon levels off).  Right now we are mining 25 coin blocks.  That will diminish in half in a while.  As far as asic's being cost prohibitive or not in the near future; it really is a guessing game.  the key is educate yourself on the in's and out's.  this would be a good start to help make future projections.  There are a set number of bitcoins and it will take years to discover all of them.  Many theories, much math is involved as well.

[Aztec]

Why is it essential to get one in the first shipment? Will the early adopters mine all the coins?

And addition to what was mentioned above; the difficulty rises, and will rise exponentially.  But, even at a difficultly several times higher than it is now, asics will still be profitable.  Just not as at such a high degree (or % profit margin)  as today.  Albeit BTC value is going up and will continue to rise; that margin may remain close (so % profit margin may remain true).  I'm betting on the BTC value rising.

So how big is the window of opportunity after ASICs ship? Let's say you bought an ASIC a year after the first ones shipped could you still make a few yarrips? I'm not talking mega bucks. Or is it a case that they will have a very short shelf life because they've mined all the coins so fast that only the very difficult ones are left and they have to mine in pools again? I guess what I'm saying is how long is it going to take these bad boys to mine the easier coins before they hit the real hard stuff? Days, weeks??

I would do some studying on what exactly is this difficulty level.  Basically it is designed to increase to ensure that a block of bitcoins is only discovered every 8-10 minutes.  When the network expands in strength, the difficulty rises up to keep the block discovery at this 8-10 minute window (albeit I've seen it drop into the 7 minute range and a bit lower, but the network soon levels off).  Right now we are mining 25 coin blocks.  That will diminish in half in a while.  As far as asic's being cost prohibitive or not in the near future; it really is a guessing game.  the key is educate yourself on the in's and out's.  this would be a good start to help make future projections.  There are a set number of bitcoins and it will take years to discover all of them.  Many theories, much math is involved as well.

Cheers man. That makes sense. I need to crack the maths behind this to better understand it.

[Rampion]

That's the whole point of this exercise.

How do you mean? Personally you're in it to get rich or that Bitcoin is some kind of Pyramid scheme?

Bitcoin is an experiment in unrestrained ultra-capitalism.

+1

[h4r13q1n]

It is a guessing game.

lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.

so the players in the game basically are

- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network

It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.

[Rampion]

It is a guessing game.

lets say the difficulty quadruples to 20.000.000 until July 1st. And lets say that's the date one gets his Single SC, mining 60 GH/s. You'd make ฿45.87 per month or $3.200 at an exchange rate of $70.

so the players in the game basically are

- difficulty
- exchange rate
- your fraction of the total hashpower of the network

It's not rocket science, still you have do do some estimations and some math.
the big question is what will the difficulty be in n months - if you consider all of the 900 avalons and all of bfls 60.000 chips mining. I did this calculation but the only result I remember was "I'm okay with that". Maybe someone else has the numbers.

Well, I'm disagree with you on some points:

1) For the ones who bought in BTC, it's more important to b/e in BTC, so the exchange rate is secondary. Imagine how angry are those who bought in BTC when the exchange rate was 10 times lower ($6 in July 2012). They will NEVER b/e in USD, and keeping those BTC was the right choice to make.

2) You can quite safely estimate that difficulty in July will not be over X (I say not over 60.000.000), and therefore you can calculate the amount of BTC your machine will generate in worst case scenario. The big question is not what will the difficulty be in n months, but WHEN are you going to get your BFL machine.

It's possible that the answer to the big question is NEVER. So the real gamble is: when I will get my machine?

[h4r13q1n]

1) For the ones who bought in BTC, it's more important to b/e in BTC, so the exchange rate is secondary. Imagine how angry are those who bought in BTC when the exchange rate was 10 times lower ($6 in July 2012). They will NEVER b/e in USD, and keeping those BTC was the right choice to make.

Well, how is the exchange rate secondary? For the people you mentioned it would have been smarter to keep those bitcoins - because of the exchange rate. Also non of them will cancel their order - also because of the current exchange rate. They'd have no loss in $, but a huge loss in btc.

2) You can quite safely estimate that difficulty in July will not be over X (I say not over 60.000.000), and therefore you can calculate the amount of BTC your machine will generate in worst case scenario. The big question is not what will the difficulty be in n months, but WHEN are you going to get your BFL machine.

With n months I meant the point when one gets his machine. No one knows when this will be due to the amazing information politics of BFL.

[greyhawk]

Hail Zerlan.

[Rampion]

1) For the ones who bought in BTC, it's more important to b/e in BTC, so the exchange rate is secondary. Imagine how angry are those who bought in BTC when the exchange rate was 10 times lower ($6 in July 2012). They will NEVER b/e in USD, and keeping those BTC was the right choice to make.

Well, how is the exchange rate secondary? For the people you mentioned it would have been smarter to keep those bitcoins - because of the exchange rate. Also non of them will cancel their order - also because of the current exchange rate. They'd have no loss in $, but a huge loss in btc.

Well, the harsh truth is that early buyers in BTC will never b/e. I mean... In July a 60GHs BFL unit costed +200btc. To b/e TODAY they would need 40 days. But when the difficulty will spike x10, it's more than a year... While difficulty keeps climbing.

2) You can quite safely estimate that difficulty in July will not be over X (I say not over 60.000.000), and therefore you can calculate the amount of BTC your machine will generate in worst case scenario. The big question is not what will the difficulty be in n months, but WHEN are you going to get your BFL machine.

With n months I meant the point when one gets his machine. No one knows when this will be due to the amazing information politics of BFL.

Well, I think BFL information politics is pretty good. They are stating pretty clearly that they are in very deep shit, and that they won't be able to ship a reasonably good, well-tested product for MONTHS. I mean, you can safely bet that you won't receive your unit until the summer or later... And probably you will never receive it.

[h4r13q1n]

They are stating pretty clearly that they are in very deep shit, and that they won't be able to ship a reasonably good, well-tested product for MONTHS.

They did? Would you like to provide a link to those "clear statements"? The last update was basically jabbering something about problems with the board and fondling with the firmware. They've never had clear statements. Maybe "BFL Information Minister" might give us some more insightful information about the situation at the front

[Rampion]

They are stating pretty clearly that they are in very deep shit, and that they won't be able to ship a reasonably good, well-tested product for MONTHS.

They did? Would you like to provide a link to those "clear statements"? The last update was basically jabbering something about problems with the board and fondling with the firmware. They've never had clear statements. Maybe "BFL Information Minister" might give us some more insightful information about the situation at the front

Well, I read that jabbering as a clear statement on their inability to produce a working, well tested product in a reasonable time frame. That is 100% clear from my point of view.

[h4r13q1n]

Well, I read that jabbering as a clear statement on their inability to produce a working, well tested product in a reasonable time frame. That is 100% clear from my point of view.

You've got a point there.

Still they managed their FPGA production and distribution. They seem to have made a chain of pretty poor decisions towards choosing reliable partners etc. But I agree that there's not much to justify optimism here besides the fact that pre-oderers seem to develop an analogy of the stockholm syndrome...

[Rampion]

Well, I read that jabbering as a clear statement on their inability to produce a working, well tested product in a reasonable time frame. That is 100% clear from my point of view.

You've got a point there.

Still they managed their FPGA production and distribution. They seem to have made a chain of pretty poor decisions towards choosing reliable partners etc. But I agree that there's not much to justify optimism here besides the fact that pre-oderers seem to develop an analogy of the stockholm syndrome...

For me it's quite the opposite. I preordered, but I got over it and I accepted I was scammed. Maybe they had no intention to scam their customers at the beginning, but I'm quite sure they are now saying "what the fuck, let's take the most out of it and fuck them all".

I've read EVERY DAY on this forums about newbies doing new preorders. Hell, BFL have got almost 30.000 preorders right now, and they are spending A LOT of money advertising they still non-existing units for preorder.

This, in my opinion, is another clear red flag. They are more worried in investing in huge advertising than in solving their problems.

If they were legit, they would just STOP taking preorders until they start shipping. I mean... What kind of return can make somebody that orders a SC Single today and receives his unit when Avalon has deployed at least another 3 batches, plus tons of THs deployed by ASICminer, plus the thousands (if not millions) of THs deployed by the units in the 30.000 orders before yours?

BFL knows that, and STILL is accepting preorders and investing a lot in advertising. They are SCAM, full point.

[h4r13q1n]

I preordered, but I got over it and I accepted I was scammed.

Did you cancel your order or did you pay in bitcoin?

Hell, BFL have got almost 30.000 preorders right now, and they are spending A LOT of money advertising they still non-existing units for preorder.

You think those order numbers are correct? If so, they'd have to produce 4 units per hour 27/4 from now on to deliver actual orders within this year.

BFL knows that, and STILL is accepting preorders and investing a lot in advertising. They are SCAM, full point.

Well in this case their only option would be to run off to some 3rd world country or else spend a long time in prison.

[redeyeinsomniac]

I understand that a lot of people are angry because BFL has continually missed their deadlines, but I think this is more caused by incompetence rather than actual malice. Their project management skills are lackluster at best, but I'm not ready to call it a scam yet.