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Author Topic: Wall Observer Observer - MtGoxUSD wall movement tracker tracker  (Read 4688 times)
bb113
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March 19, 2013, 06:42:42 PM
 #1

In response to this post:

My guess is that we will see 59.099$ then a quick correction to ~47$ level, like the 49$ day.

There's very little between here and $59.78.

If it goes past 60 then who knows what will happen.

The Clark Moody page which uses MtGox sockets API shows pretty much nothing there.

I'm presuming MtGox has crapped out again and isn't sending out full depth information.

Warning - while you were reading 37 new replies have been posted. You may wish to review your post.

LOL!

Someone oughta make a graph of the growth of this thread vs. BTC price, and vs. volatility.





tips?: 125x7TCMH7jxVPCiYAaaZUNbJiLpzEzMiR

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March 19, 2013, 06:44:17 PM
 #2

ITT: We learn that people like talking about the price when the price is doing things.  Cheesy

Interesting graph. What did you scrape with?
bb113
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March 19, 2013, 06:48:48 PM
 #3

ITT: We learn that people like talking about the price when the price is doing things.  Cheesy

Interesting graph. What did you scrape with?

wrote an R script to grab all the lines with "<div class="smalltext">" from each page and extracted the dates from there. Actually I dropped any that were edited because the html was different for those posts... the chart is kind of a joke anyway
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March 19, 2013, 06:49:23 PM
 #4

Thread fork!

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March 19, 2013, 06:50:34 PM
 #5

Thread fork!

Aww man, my last 3 posts in the other thread are basically worthless.
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March 19, 2013, 06:50:57 PM
 #6

Thread fork!

Aww man, my last 3 posts in the other thread are basically worthless.

Uber confusing, but I Lol'ed when I realised what was happening.

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March 19, 2013, 07:21:55 PM
 #7

Seems to me both volatility and price are correlated with the number of posts.
(and I would expect sudden volatility after long period of quiet to have larger effect)
Zangelbert Bingledack
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March 19, 2013, 07:31:47 PM
 #8

Wow, great job! Makes me wish I had hacker skillz.
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March 19, 2013, 07:37:05 PM
 #9

Thread fork!

Shit now you better do a graph of the graph of the growth of this thread vs. BTC price, vs. volatility. Then we can see which thread is the fastest generating fork.  Perhaps we'll need to downgrade to version 0.7.2 or earlier of this thread to keep the old forking wall tracker thread alive.

Maybe then in a few weeks we'll all have to upgrade to a new more stable wall tracker thread.   Wink
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March 19, 2013, 08:48:07 PM
 #10

Thread fork!

Aww man, my last 3 posts in the other thread are basically worthless.

No they're just effectively worth half as much. They're still legitimate on both threads don't worry.

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March 19, 2013, 09:00:44 PM
 #11

I like it!
bb113
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March 24, 2013, 10:44:33 AM
 #12

I've been thinking about "business models" that can fund research not backed by violence (patents and government funding). This thread is obviously a joke, but I want to try something out. If, after this date, a total of 0.1 bitcoins is sent to:

125x7TCMH7jxVPCiYAaaZUNbJiLpzEzMiR

I will post a new wall observer observer chart and post the code so anyone can do it.
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March 24, 2013, 01:15:15 PM
 #13

bump
bb113
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March 24, 2013, 07:07:58 PM
 #14

Its running now... I didn't save the data the first time so it will take a bit.
bb113
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March 24, 2013, 09:28:00 PM
 #15




R code:
Code:
require(RCurl)

last.page<-15640
num<-"00"
allposts=NULL
while(as.numeric(num)<=last.page){
 
  forum<-getURL(
    paste("https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.",num, sep=""),
    ssl.verifypeer = FALSE, useragent = "R"
  )
 
 
  forum<-readLines(tc <- textConnection(forum)); close(tc)
  dates1<-grep('<div class="smalltext">',forum)
  dates2<-dates1[seq(2,length(dates1),by=2)]
  forum2<-forum[dates2]
  if(length(grep("edit",forum2))>0){
    forum3<-forum2[-grep("edit",forum2)]
  }else{
    forum3<-forum2
  }
 
  dates=NULL
  for(i in 1:length(forum3)){
    temp<-unlist(strsplit(forum3[i],">"))
    date<-strsplit(temp[2],"</")[[1]][1]
   
    dates<-rbind(dates,date)
  }
 
  allposts<-rbind(allposts,dates)
 
  num<-20 + as.numeric(num)
  print(num)
}

rownames(allposts)<-1:length(allposts)

allposts<-allposts[-which(allposts=="<b")]

alldates=NULL
for(i in 1:length(allposts)){
  temp<-unlist(
    strsplit(
      unlist(strsplit(allposts[i],", ")),
      " "
    )
  )
 
  temp2<-cbind(temp[1],temp[2],temp[3])
 
  alldates<-rbind(alldates,temp2)
}
alldates<-as.data.frame(alldates)
alldates[,1]<-as.character(alldates[,1])
alldates[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,2]))
alldates[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(alldates[,3]))



mnth<-month.name[1]
yr<-2012
counts=NULL

for(yr in c(2012,2013)){
  for(m in 1:length(month.name)){
    mnth<-month.name[m]
    temp<-alldates[which(alldates[,1]==mnth & alldates[,3]==yr),]
    if(nrow(temp)>0){
     
     
      for(i in 1:max(temp[,2])){
        cnt<-length(which(temp[,2]==i))
       
        counts.temp<-cbind(unique(temp[,1]),i,unique(temp[,3]),cnt)
        counts<-rbind(counts,counts.temp)
      }
     
    }
   
  }
 
}

counts<-as.data.frame(counts)
counts[,1]<-as.character(counts[,1])
counts[,2]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,2]))
counts[,3]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,3]))
counts[,4]<-as.numeric(as.character(counts[,4]))



x.vals<-round(seq(1,nrow(counts), length=10),0)
x.labs<-paste(counts[x.vals,1],counts[x.vals,2], counts[x.vals,3])

plot(counts[,4], type="l", lwd=2, col="Red",
     ylab="Number of Posts",xaxt="n", xlab="",
     main="Posts per Day in Wall Observer Thread"
)
axis(side=1, at=x.vals, labels=x.labs)


bb113
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March 25, 2013, 09:41:27 PM
 #16

Ok, so I have important stuff to do but keep procrastinating reading bitcoin stuff so I may as well improve this. I need a list of bullish and bearish terms to create a sentiment index for that thread.
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March 25, 2013, 09:44:47 PM
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Ok, so I have important stuff to do but keep procrastinating reading bitcoin stuff so I may as well improve this. I need a list of bullish and bearish terms to create a sentiment index for that thread.

Classify days as bullish/bearsish/neutral.  Use TF-IDF to pick out the most frequent terms on bullish or bearish days.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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March 25, 2013, 09:50:25 PM
 #18

I need a list of bullish and bearish terms to create a sentiment index for that thread.

Could you give us a list of the top-100 most frequently used words in the thread? (to start us off. we can then eliminate unrelated terms.)

By the way, can you go a little further back in the graph? (if it's not too much trouble. To compare 2013 to 2011.)

Edit: Plus what notme posted

Classify days as bullish/bearsish/neutral.  Use TF-IDF to pick out the most frequent terms on bullish or bearish days.

bb113
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March 25, 2013, 10:18:47 PM
 #19

I need a list of bullish and bearish terms to create a sentiment index for that thread.

Could you give us a list of the top-100 most frequently used words in the thread? (to start us off. we can then eliminate unrelated terms.)

By the way, can you go a little further back in the graph? (if it's not too much trouble. To compare 2013 to 2011.)

Edit: Plus what notme posted

Classify days as bullish/bearsish/neutral.  Use TF-IDF to pick out the most frequent terms on bullish or bearish days.

Yes, I can do the word frequency list, this is actually gunna be a bit harder then I first thought due to the quoting. I need to figure out how to filter those. I cannot go back any further because the thread did not exist before June 2012.
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March 25, 2013, 11:39:49 PM
 #20

I need a list of bullish and bearish terms to create a sentiment index for that thread.

Could you give us a list of the top-100 most frequently used words in the thread? (to start us off. we can then eliminate unrelated terms.)

By the way, can you go a little further back in the graph? (if it's not too much trouble. To compare 2013 to 2011.)

Edit: Plus what notme posted

Classify days as bullish/bearsish/neutral.  Use TF-IDF to pick out the most frequent terms on bullish or bearish days.

Yes, I can do the word frequency list, this is actually gunna be a bit harder then I first thought due to the quoting. I need to figure out how to filter those. I cannot go back any further because the thread did not exist before June 2012.

Good point.  You might be short on bearish examples.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
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